It’s crazy how much narratives change, and how quickly they can do so. Less than a month ago, we had no idea who was going to come out of the Eastern Conference, but four teams stood a good chance.
The Raptors, Sixers and Celtics all had the talent to do so, but it was the Bucks that were better than -200 favorites to reach the NBA Finals. Whoever came out of the East was just going to be in line to get steamrolled by a Kevin Durant-led Warriors squad, hungry for a three-peat.
Of course, now we know the Raptors completely exposed the Bucks, while the Warriors reached plus money to win the championship after KD went down with a calf injury. Since then, they’ve gone 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread.
This NBA Finals matchup has one of the most interesting betting angles I can recall. The Warriors, who check in as -300 favorites to win the series at most books, are one-point underdogs in Game 1.
In some ways it makes sense — the idea that Durant may play later in the series makes the Warriors stronger candidates to win it all, but starting the series without him on the road makes for a tough spot. On the other hand, it’s difficult to imagine laying -300 on a team to win a series when oddsmakers are telling you their chances to be down 0-1 are better than a coin flip.
Let’s quickly review the regular season matchups between these two teams before we dive into the odds. I think the regular season holds almost no value when we examine this series. The Raptors beat the Warriors 131-128 in OT at home in November, but Stephen Curry and Draymond Green both sat out. Durant scored 51 points in the losing effort.
Golden State also dropped its home game against Toronto on Dec. 12, losing by 20 points with a full squad and Kawhi Leonard out of the Raptors’ lineup. I have to chalk that one up as an off night for the Dubs.
Here are some different types of wagers to consider for the best-of-seven series and Game 1 (odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook):
Series Odds: GSW (-286)/TOR (+225)
Hopefully you listened to me during my article the day after the Rockets tied their series against the Warriors at 2-2, and bet the Warriors at a -120 price to win the title. I even went back for more after KD got injured in Game 5 of that series, as I couldn’t pass up the Warriors at +115 title odds up 3-2 against Houston, regardless of Durant’s status.
I don’t see any value in the series line from Golden State’s standpoint here, even if you don’t have any futures on them yet. This article will hopefully provide you with some other creative ways to get future odds on Golden State without having to lay nearly 3:1. Of course, if you feel the Raptors have a good chance in this series, you’re getting tremendous odds.
Series Correct Score: GSW 4-0 (+550)/GSW 4-1 (+350)/GSW 4-2 (+250)/GSW 4-3 (+550)
I think Toronto’s playing well enough to take two games here, which has me looking at +250 on the Warriors closing out at home in six games. But if you narrow this down to a couple of options you like, you can find ways to get the Warriors at a much better price than -286, even by placing multiple wagers on how many games the series will last.
Golden State closed out all three of the series’ in the West on the road, so getting +350 on winning in five is also an attractive option to me. The +550 on a sweep or winning in seven games seems less likely, but the odds reflect that. If you don’t want to lay the series price, try playing a couple of these exact series score prices for plus money.
Series Spread (Games): GSW -1.5 (-167)
I like this bet a lot as a way to trim the series odds down by more than a dollar. The 1.5-game spread just eliminates the payout if Golden State wins in seven games. As long as they take care of business in four, five or six games, the Warriors cover this series spread and you get paid out. This is probably my favorite way to bet the Warriors for the series.
NBA Finals MVP: Stephen Curry (-136)/Draymond Green (+700)
I was getting ready to write Leonard’s name here, because if you’re going to bet the Raptors +225 for the series, you might as well bet Kawhi since we know he’d be the MVP. Well, oddsmakers know that too, because Leonard is +225 to win MVP, leaving zero value here.
Betting Steph at -136 gets you slightly better odds than the GSW -1.5 series line. I think this is Curry’s year to hoist the Finals MVP trophy — he doesn’t have one yet, and Durant shouldn’t play enough to earn it (unless his return sparks a series comeback). If you want to protect yourself with a little bit of money on Draymond at +700, I can’t argue with you given the way he’s playing (consecutive triple-doubles to close out Portland on the road).
Game 1 Player Prop — Double-double: Draymond Green (-162)
As mentioned, Green enters the NBA Finals with back-to-back triple-doubles. He has four triple-doubles in his 16 playoff games, along with five more double-doubles. In five other games, he’s been two or fewer points/rebounds/assists away from a double-double.
The bottom line is that Green flirts with these numbers on a nightly basis, and has registered a double-double or triple-double in every game since Durant got injured. I like that streak to continue in Game 1 at Toronto and, if you think he registers another triple-double, you can reach on +300 odds.
Game 1: GSW (+100)
Game 1 comes down to a few simple things for me. The Warriors are 6-2 on the road in the postseason, with their only two losses at Houston, where they closed the series out in Game 6. We’re getting the better team here, that’s heavily favored to win the series and at even odds to take Game 1.
Since 2015, the Warriors have an insane 18-1 record in 19 series openers, winning by an average of 13.6 points per game. I’ll ride that trend and lock in the Warriors, who haven’t lost since May 6.