DraftKings and FanDuel recently released college football season win totals. Let’s take a look at those for all seven SEC East schools today.
Before we do so, though, I want to stress that I don’t make many (if any) season win total plays until I get my magazines. And hell no, it’s not because I’m looking to tail any of their predictions. I simply like to gather as much intel on each team as I can before deciding to place large wagers on them.
I’ve pre-ordered my Phil Steele magazine, but the first ones that’ll hit newsstands are from Lindy’s and Athlon’s. Those will be released on May 30, while Steele’s mag goes to press on June 7.
With that said, I will offer some thoughts and a few slight leans on these seven teams.
We’ll start with Georgia, the two-time defending national champions. The Bulldogs are currently listed as +220 ‘chalk’ to win a third consecutive College Football Playoff at FanDuel, the same betting shop that has their win tally at 11.5 (‘under’ -142, ‘over’ +116).
DraftKings has UGA’s odds to win the CFP at +230, while its season win total is 11.5 (‘under’ -150, ‘over’ +130). Kirby Smart’s team went 15-0 straight up and 8-7 against the spread in 2022, advancing the CFP finals with a 42-41 non-covering win over Ohio St. as a 4.5-point favorite.
UGA smashed TCU 65-7 to repeat as a 13.5-point ‘chalk.’ According to Athlon Sports, the Bulldogs bring back six starters on offense and seven on defense. They lost offensive coordinator Todd Monken to the NFL and quarterback Stetson Bennett is also gone.
QBs Carson Beck and Brock Vandagriff are competing to replace Bennett, with Beck considered to have the edge. I’m not against a small play on Beck to win the Heisman Trophy at 30/1 odds (FanDuel).
Beck has appeared in 10 games in the past two years, completing 36-of-58 throws (62.1%) for 486 yards and six touchdowns compared to two interceptions.
Unlike last year when it opened the season against perennial Pac-12 contender Oregon, UGA’s non-conference slate is extremely soft. The Bulldogs will host UT Martin, Ball St. and UAB before closing the regular season at Ga. Tech.
Georgia’s two games against SEC West foes are at Auburn (9/30/23) and vs. Ole Miss (11/11/23). Smart’s team is a double-digit favorite in all of its Games of the Year with only once exception – a Nov. 18 trip to Knoxville to face Tennessee.
UGA is on a six-game winning streak against the Volunteers, who have lost all six of those games by double-digit margins. They’re 7.5-point home underdogs to the Bulldogs at FanDuel. Five of UT’s losses had been by at least 23 points until dropping a 27-13 decision in Athens last year.
Thoughts: With the soft schedule, it might be tempting to some to play the ‘over’ here. But the trip to Knoxville appears daunting, especially if Joe Milton can reach the potential that he flashed in a 31-14 win over Clemson at the Orange Bowl. There’s always the complacency factor, too. Will UGA remain hungry after winning a pair of natties for a fan base that had been starving for jewelry for 41 years? Will the transition from Bennett to Beck (or Vandagriff) turn out to be a significant downgrade? UGA has to be perfect to go ‘over,’ so its season win total is a hard pass for me.
Tennessee (11-2 SU, 10-3 ATS) is off its best season in 21 years, matching its 11-2 record from the 2001 campaign when it won the SEC East thanks to an upset win at The Swamp as an 18.5-point road underdog. In just Josh Heupel’s second year on the job, he led the Vols to their first double-digit win total since 2007.
Although star QB Hendon Hooker is gone, the 6-foot-5 Milton is poised to take over. He has an incredible skill set, great size, the strongest arm in college football and stunning speed for a big man. In 17 appearances and four starts at Tennessee in 2021 and ’22, Milton has 12 TD passes without an interception and two rushing TDs.
In 2022, he connected on 53-of-82 passes (64.6%) for 971 yards and 10 TDs without an interception. He was MVP of the Orange Bowl after completing 19-of-28 throws for 251 yards and three TDs.
The Vols return seven starters on offense and six on defense. Heupel has added eight transfers out of the portal, including four who are four-star players at 247Sports, who have UT’s overall 2023 class ranked 10th nationally. The transfer-specific class is No. 33.
The four-star imports include ex-BYU CB Gabe Jeudy-Lally, former Oregon WR Dont’e Thornton, ex-BYU LB Keenan Pili and former UC Davis TE McCallan Castles. Jeudy-Lally started his career at Vanderbilt in 2021, recording 50 tackles, one interception, one tackle for loss and one pass broken up. In 2022 at BYU, Jeudy-Lally contributed 47 tackles, seven PBU and 0.5 sacks.
Thornton had 17 receptions for 366 yards and one TD at Oregon last season, while Pili produced 62 tackles, four TFL’s, one sack, one forced fumble, one fumble recovery and one PBU.
FanDuel has UT’s season win total at 9.5 (‘under’ -188, ‘over’ +146). The Vols have 17/1 odds to win the SEC and 30/1 odds to win the CFP. DraftKings has Heupel’s squad -7.5 at Florida, -13 vs. South Carolina, -9.5 vs. Texas A&M, +10 at Alabama and (like FanDuel) +7.5 vs. UGA.
Tennessee’s non-conference schedule consists of home games vs. UConn, vs. UTSA, vs. Austin Peay and a season-opening clash vs. Virginia at Nissan Stadium in Nashville. The Vols host Texas A&M and travel to Tuscaloosa to take on Alabama in back-to-back weeks in mid-October (10/14 & 10/21).
They get their open date ahead of hosting the Aggies (10/7). In addition to going to Bryant-Denny Stadium, UT’s other road assignments are at UF, at Kentucky and at Missouri.
Thoughts: With the plus money being offered on the ‘over’ at 9.5 wins, I’m guessing there could be books that put the number at 8.5 (shaded with juice on the ‘over’) in the coming weeks and months. Depending on that price, I might be interested in ‘over’ 8.5. The Vols look like a 9-3 team to me. Their toughest games are obviously at home vs. UGA and at ‘Bama.
The game at Kentucky is an extremely advantageous spot for the Wildcats, who have two weeks to prepare for UT. The Vols have to go to Lexington one week after playing at Alabama. For now, UT’s season win total is a pass for me. If an 8.5 pops and the price is -130 or cheaper to the ‘over,’ I might reconsider that stance.
Florida has its lowest season win total ever. DraftKings has the number at 5.5 (‘under’ -115, ‘over’ -105), while FanDuel has it at 5.5 (‘over’ -134, ‘under’ +110).
I think UF’s roster is going to be improved overall. However, it’s inconceivable that Billy Napier is going into Year 2 of his tenure with such a trainwreck of a situation at the QB position. Remember, the Gators finished 6-7 SU and 7-6 ATS with Anthony Richardson, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, starting 12 of 13 games in 2022.
Whether Florida adds another QB during this window of the transfer portal remains unclear. For now, there are only three on scholarship – Graham Mertz, Jack Miller and Max Browne. Mertz is one of the most disappointing players in Wisconsin football history.
After throwing seven TD passes without an interception in his first two starts as a true freshman in 2020, Mertz has a mediocre 31/26 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The Badgers went 18-13 in Mertz’s last 31 starts. They had double-digit win seasons, winning at least 11 three times, in five of the six seasons before Mertz became the starter.
It’s beyond perplexing that Napier pursued Mertz ahead of other options like ex-Wake Forest QB Sam Hartman (Notre Dame) and/or former NC St. QB Devin Leary (Kentucky). The Gators were reportedly close to getting Tulane’s Michael Pratt, but he decided to stay in New Orleans after the Green Wave’s thrilling comeback win over USC at the Cotton Bowl. (Willie Fritz’s decision to stay at Tulane instead of going to Ga. Tech also factored into that decision.)
Did Napier and his staff prefer Mertz over Austin Reed, who led the nation in passing yards (4,746) at Western Ky. last year? Reed briefly entered the portal and the former QB at West Florida was reportedly interested in UF. The interest apparently wasn’t mutual, and Reed opted to remain with the Hilltoppers.
Whatever the case, it’s unacceptable. Miller has only started one career game, with UF scoring only three points on its last offensive play in the Las Vegas Bowl. Browne has never taken a snap and only saw limited playing time in the Orange and Blue spring game.
Florida has had three of its worst defenses in the last four decades in consecutive seasons from 2020-2022. This unit has a new defensive coordinator in Austin Armstrong, 29, who is one of the youngest DCs in the country.
The Gators open the season at Utah on a Thursday night (August 31). Their three other non-conference games are vs. McNeese St., vs. Charlotte and vs. FSU. UF’s contests versus the SEC West are vs. Arkansas and at LSU.
Florida is a double-digit underdog at Utah, vs. Georgia and at LSU in the Games of the Year lines. The Gators are also underdogs vs. Tennessee and vs. FSU.
Thoughts: Although I’ve never had lower expectations for a UF football team in my lifetime, I can’t quite pull the trigger on an ‘under’ play. In a best-case scenario, the Gators can beat Tennessee and/or FSU at home despite currently being underdogs of more than a TD. They can also win at Missouri, at South Carolina and/or at Kentucky. However, all five of those games can also be losses. If Utah star QB Cam Rising, who tore his ACL in the Rose Bowl, is unable to go in Week 1, that would be advantageous to Napier’s squad. I think 5-7 or 6-6 is most likely for UF, but 4-8 certainly isn’t out of the question. That would leave Napier on a boiling hot seat – and deservedly so – heading into Year 3. I’ll pass on this season win total.
Kentucky has a win total of 6.5 (‘over’ -162, ‘under’ +132) at FanDuel. The juice on the ‘over’ at DraftKings is only -130 (+110 for the ‘under’). The Wildcats scored an outstanding QB to replace Will Levis in Leary, who had an elite 35/5 TD-INT ratio in 2021. He completed 65.7 percent of his throws for 3,433 yards and the Wolfpack went 9-3 SU and 7-5 ATS.
However, Leary sustained a season-ending injury (torn pectora muscle) in a 19-17 home win over FSU on Oct. 8 of last year. After the season ended, he hit the portal and ended up in Lexington.
Mark Stoops’s team starts the year with three straight non-conference home games vs. Ball St., Eastern Kentucky and Akron. The Wildcats play at Louisville in the regular-season finale. They play at Mississippi St. on Nov. 4 before hosting Alabama the following week for their games against SEC West foes.
UK gets off date on Oct. 21 ahead of a home game vs. Tennessee. With the three non-conference games previously noted in early September, the Wildcats have a decent chance to be 5-0 after playing at Vanderbilt and hosting Florida ahead of a Oct. 7 trip to Athens.
Stoops added 11 total players from out of the portal. Former North Carolina DL Keeshawn Silver, ex-Vandy RB Ray Davis, former Cincinnati CB JQ Hardaway and former Alabama OL Tanner Bowles join Leary as four-star transfers.
Davis will have big shoes to fill after bell cow RB Chris Rodriguez was taken in the sixth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Rodriguez’s 3,643 career rushing yards rank third in program history. Davis ran for 1,042 yards and five TDs with a 4.5 yards-per-carry average for the Commodores in 2022. He also had 29 catches for 169 yards and three TDs.
UK brings back eight starters on offense and six on defense. The Wildcats finished third in the SEC and 11th nationally in scoring defense last season (19.2 points per game). However, they ranked last in the SEC and No. 112 out of 131 FBS teams in scoring (20.1 PPG).
Leary has all four of the Wildcats’ top pass catchers returning, including WRs Dane Key, Barion Brown and Tayvion Robinson. Perhaps most important, offensive coordinator Liam Cohen is back after a one-year stint on the staff of the Los Angeles Rams.
When Cohen was calling the offense in 2021, UK finished fifth in the SEC in scoring with its 32.3 PPG average.
In addition to Bowles from ‘Bama, Kentucky also brought in three other offensive linemen from the portal, including former No. Illinois OT Marques Cox, ex-Ohio St. OT Ben Christman and former USC OT Courtland Ford. If UK is going to improve on its 7-6 SU record and 8-5 ATS mark from 2022, it will need better play from the offensive line.
Thoughts: Kentucky has an excellent chance to start 5-0. From there, though, the Wildcats are only certain to be favored in a home game vs. Missouri. They might be favored at South Carolina and/or at Louisville, and figure to only be small underdogs vs. the Vols and at Mississippi St. I slightly lean to the ‘over’ at -130 (DraftKings), but I wouldn’t want to risk a price North of -135. I’m thinking the ‘Cats are going to get to at least seven wins.
South Carolina is off an 8-5 campaign both SU and ATS. The Gamecocks won seven of their last nine games, only to drop a 45-38 heartbreaker to Notre Dame at the Gator Bowl. They return six starters on offense and four on defense.
FanDuel has Shane Beamer’s team with a season win total of 6.5 (‘under’ 142, ‘over’ +116), while DraftKings has just -115 odds to the ‘under’ (-105 for the ‘over’). South Carolina’s non-conference slate includes a neutral-field opener vs. North Carolina in Charlotte. Then the Gamecocks host Furman, Jacksonville St. and Clemson at Williams-Brice Stadium.
The SEC West opponents are Mississippi St. (at home on Sept. 23) and Texas A&M (in College Station on Oct. 28). South Carolina has two weeks to prepare for a revenge game at home vs. Florida. The Gators, who trounced the Gamecocks 38-6 in 2022, will be playing their seventh game in seven weeks.
Beamer has his two best offensive weapons back in QB Spencer Rattler and WR Antwane ‘Juice’ Wells. Rattler’s play in September and October was inconsistent, mainly due to piss-poor pass protection. However, he turned it on down the stretch, throwing 13 TD passes compared to only three interceptions in South Carolina’s last five games.
When the Gamecocks demolished Tennessee and ended its CFP hopes in a 63-38 pimpslap, Rattler connected on 30-of-37 throws for 438 yards and six TDs without an interception. One week later, he threw for 360 yards and two TDs in a 31-30 victory at Clemson to end a seven-year slide against their bitter in-state adversary.
After such a strong finish to the 2022 campaign, it was surprising to see key players like DE Jordan Burch (Oregon), RB Marshawn Lloyd (USC), TE Austin Stogner (Oklahoma) and TE Jaheim Bell (FSU) jump into the portal. But Beamer added three TEs from the portal, including a pair of four-star TEs in Trey Knox (Arkansas) and Joshua Simon (Western Ky.).
The other four-star transfer (among 10 imports from the portal) is LB Jaron Willis (Ole Miss). South Carolina’s overall (freshmen and transfers) recruiting class in 2023 is ranked No. 17 nationally by 247Sports. Of the incoming freshmen, there’s one five-star (WR Nycholes Harbor) and 11 four-star prospects.
Thoughts: South Carolina ranked 10th in the SEC in scoring defense last year, allowing an average of 28.8 PPG. With only four starters back on that side of the ball, there are a lot of questions about this unit. There’s really only one guaranteed loss (at UGA) on the schedule, but I’m only certain of three wins (at home to Furman, Jacksonville St. and Vandy). I’ll also add at Tennessee to the loss column, leaving seven swing games. Four of those seven are at home and one is vs. UNC in Charlotte. With plus money being offered on the Gamecocks to go ‘over’ at FanDuel, I lean that way based on trusting Rattler more after seeing how elite he played late last season.
Missouri is entering a key season in Year 4 of Eli Drinkwitz’s tenure. The Tigers went 6-7 SU and 7-6 ATS in 2022, dropping a 27-17 decision to Wake Forest as 2.5-point underdogs in the Gasparilla Bowl. They’re now 17-19 SU and 16-20 ATS during Drinkwitz’s tenure.
Missouri brings back six starters on offense and eight on defense. With the exception of the losses at Tennessee (66-24) and at Kansas St. (40-12), the Tigers were outstanding defensively in 2022. They limited seven opponents to 22 points or fewer.
If we remove the scoring outbursts by the Volunteers and Wildcats, Missouri allowed only 20.1 PPG in its 11 other contests. Three of the top four tacklers are back, including LB Ty’Ron Hopper, a second-team All-SEC selection, who recorded 78 tackles, 14 tackles for loss, six QB hurries, four passes broken up, 2.5 sacks, one interception and one forced fumble.
FanDuel has Missouri’s win total at 6.5 (‘under’ -128, ‘over’ +104), while DraftKings has the juice at -145 to the ‘under’ (+125 for the ‘over’). The Tigers start the season with four consecutive non-conference games. The first three are at home vs. South Dakota, Middle Tennessee and Kansas St., and then they take on Memphis in St. Louis.
The SEC West games are at home vs. LSU and at Arkansas. Missouri’s open date is on Oct. 28 ahead of a road game at Georgia.
Brady Cook was last year’s starter QB, producing a 14/7 TD-INT ratio and six rushing TDs. He completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 2,724 yards, in addition to rushing for 585 yards. Cook had surgery for a torn labrum in January and missed all of spring practice.
Cook will have competition from Miami transfer Jake Garcia, who has a 7/4 career TD-INT ratio. Along with Garcia, a four-star transfer, Drinkwitz brought in seven other transfers. Two others, WR Theo Wease from Oklahoma and OT Marcellus Johnson from Eastern Michigan, are also four-star transfers.
Missouri lost four of six one-possession games last season. The Tigers should’ve won (on 4-5 different plays) in a 17-14 overtime loss at Auburn, and they could’ve won in a 26-22 home loss to UGA and a 24-17 loss at Florida.
Thoughts: The biggest swing games are at home vs. Florida, South Carolina and Kansas St. If the Tigers can win two of those three, take care of business at Vanderbilt and against Memphis in St. Louis, they’ll need to just find one more victory to get ‘over’ 6.5. They’ll be home underdogs vs. LSU and vs. Tennessee. Missouri will need to get one of those unless it can pull moderate upsets either at Arkansas or at Kentucky. Six and hook seems like a good number, as I think Mizzou goes 6-6 or 7-5. This is a hard pass for me.
Vanderbilt went 5-7 both SU and ATS in Clark Lea’s second season at his alma mater. The Commodores ended a 26-game losing streak against SEC opponents with a 24-21 win at Kentucky. Then they beat Florida 31-24 as home underdogs the following week.
FanDuel has Vandy’s win total at 3.5 (‘over’ -170, ‘under’ +138), while the odds at DraftKings are shaded to the ‘over’ at a -145 price (‘under’ +125).
With a pair of non-conference road assignments (at Wake Forest in Week 3 and at UNLV in Week 4), the Commodores only play six home games. Their SEC West games are at Ole Miss and vs. Auburn, while the non-conference home contests are vs. Hawaii and vs. Alabama A&M.
Vandy returns six starters on offense and seven on defense. As a true freshman last year, QB AJ Swann completed 58.1 percent of his passes for 1,274 yards in nine games. He threw 10 TD passes compared to only two interceptions.
Swann’s top three targets are back. WR Will Sheppard had 60 receptions for 776 yards and nine TDs, while Jayden McGowan had 44 catches for 453 yards and three TDs.
The hope is that true freshman RB Sedrick Alexander, who enrolled early and participated in spring practice, will start right away and fill the shoes of Davis.
Thoughts: The hope is that true freshman RB Sedrick Alexander, who enrolled early and participated in spring practice. We’re confident that we can pencil in victories at home vs. Hawaii and vs. Alabama A&M. The Commodores will probably be favored at UNLV, too. If they can beat the Rebels, one SEC victory will get the ‘Dores ‘over.’ The best opportunities will be at home vs. Kentucky, Missouri and/or Auburn.