Florida Gators vs. Miami Hurricanes
Line: Florida -7
Total: 46 points
Where: Camping World Stadium, Orlando, Florida (65,194)
When: Saturday, 8/24, at 7:00 p.m. ET.
TV: ESPN
The Florida Gators will take on the Miami Hurricanes to start the 2019 college football season tonight in Orlando. As of early this afternoon, most books had the Gators installed as seven-point favorites.
The total for ‘over/under’ wagers was 50.5 points for several weeks after it opened. When first-year Miami head coach Manny Diaz announced redshirt freshman Jarren Williams as his starting QB on Aug. 12, the number dropped down to 48.5. It’s steadily continued to drip lower, hitting 46 by Friday morning.
The total was down to 45.5 points early Saturday afternoon. The Hurricanes are +235 on the money line.
Miami has only lost to Florida once since 1986, producing a 7-1 record both straight up and against the spread. UM captured a 21-16 victory over UF as a three-point home underdog in the last meeting in 2013.
The Gators committed five turnovers and failed on their only fourth-down attempt. They had advantages of 22-10 in first downs and 413-212 in total offense, but couldn’t overcome costly turnovers.
That was during the Will Muschamp Era, when UF always fielded a strong defense but had unfathomable struggles offensively. That only got worse during Jim McElwain’s ill-fated reign, but things are looking brighter in Gainesville these days.
Unlike his predecessor Jeremy Foley, who inexplicably hired Ron Zook, Muschamp and McElwain when the trio had only three combined years of head-coaching experience (all three at Colorado State by McElwain), UF Athletics Director Scott Stricklin went for a proven winner (in the SEC!).
Dan Mullen got it done at Mississippi State for nine seasons. He was familiar with Florida from his three seasons spent on Urban Meyer’s staff as offensive coordinator, when the Gators won two national championships.
Mullen guided UF to a 10-3 straight-up record and a 9-4 against-the-spread ledger in Year 1. His offense returns five starters, highlighted by the program’s best group of WRs in a decade. Van Jefferson, Freddie Swain, Tyrie Cleveland, Kadarius Toney, Josh Hammond and Trevon Grimes comprise one of the nation’s premier set of wideouts.
Fourth-year junior QB Feleipe Franks made tremendous strides under Mullen’s tutelage last season. He finished 2018 with a 24/6 touchdown-interception ratio, in addition to seven rushing scores.
For more on UF’s personnel, you can read my preview written in late July right here. If you’d rather listen than read, here’s my Florida Gators 2019 betting preview on our YouTube channel.
Diaz takes over for Mark Richt, who went 7-6 SU and 5-8 ATS last year before opting to retire after a three-year tenure at his alma mater. Miami lost five of its last seven games, including a 35-3 loss to Wisconsin (during a down season for the Badgers) at the Pinstripe Bowl.
UM returns 12 starters, six apiece on each side of the ball. The defense will the strength of the Hurricanes, who are led by LBs Shaquille Quarterman and Michael Pinkney. In Phil Steele’s preseason magazine, Quarterman was a preseason second-team All-American, while Pinkney was a fourth-team choice.
Travis Homer, who had 985 rushing yards and a 6.0 yards-per-carry average last year, is gone. However, DeeJay Dallas is ready to carry a heavier load. Dallas produced 617 rushing yards, six TDs and a 5.7 YPC average in 2018.
Williams might have the ACC’s best tight end in Brevin Jordan, a former five-star recruit who garnered second-team All-ACC honors as a true freshman last season. Jordan had 32 receptions for 287 yards and four TDs.
WR Jeff Thomas, who had 35 catches for 563 yards and three TDs in ’18, will be Williams’s favorite target. The ‘Canes also secured a nice get when Buffalo WR K.J. Osborn elected to grad transfer to UM. For a 10-4 Bulls team in ’18, Osborn had 53 grabs for 892 yards and seven TDs.
UM’s offensive line is young and inexperienced, which could be bad news against a UF defensive line that includes senior DE Jabari Zuniga, a third-team All-SEC pick last year who has 15.5 career sacks and 21 QB hurries.
For gamblers extremely bullish on the Gators, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering adjusted lines as you can see in my tweet below.
Neither team has announced any suspensions — yet. Mullen told the media this week that if any players are suspended — which is quite common for season openers — there would be no pregame announcement.
In other words, the only way to find out before kick is to aggressively monitor the Twitter accounts of UF and UM beat writers in the hour before toe meets leather in O-Town.
The wait is (almost) over, folks. College football season is here tonight. Best of luck with your plays!
And if you want to get into our contest here at MajorWager, here’s all the details. I’m in it, as is Christopher Smith, so I’d love for you to donate a c-note my way because I plan on coming out on top.