NFL futures are some of the most popular bets on the market right now — team win totals, “over/unders” on yardage and touchdowns for individual players, etc.
But most of those props will pay you out right around even money. What if you want to swing for the fences and go for some home run payouts?
Here are three NFL futures at steep odds that I think are worth chasing this season: All odds for this article provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Passing Yards Leader: Jameis Winston (+1100)
Winston was just shy of 3,000 yards last season, but he only played in 11 games, and even more importantly, started just nine. The threat of Ryan Fitzpatrick is gone.
Tampa Bay wasn’t committed to Jameis, and Bruce Arians and this coaching staff are. Last year, it seemed like we were trying to figure out where the ball was supposed to go in this offense.
Arians will keep the Bucs more organized, and we know who the big gainers will be here — Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and O.J. Howard.
Even prior to the new offensive regime, which should be a huge help to the passing game, Winston was slinging the ball downfield. Of quarterbacks with at least 300 passing attempts, the highest “air yards” seasons in the last three years all belong to Winston — 69.9% in 2018, 68.3% in 2016 and 65.5% in 2017. The next highest was Carson Wentz in 2017 with 64.3%, all per Pro Football Focus.
While that stat also tells us Winston’s pass-catchers may need to work on their YAC (yards after catch), it’s also telling that he slings it downfield. Winston played the equivalent of roughly 10 full games last season, which puts him on pace for about 4,800 yards had he played 16 games.
That would’ve made him fourth in passing yards. With the new offense, anything above 10-1 odds is a really strong spot to target.
Rushing Yards Leader: Nick Chubb (+1800)
I’ve locked in Chubb to go ‘over’ 999.5 yards this season, and his rushing total is being offered at other books between 1,050-1,150. I don’t think he has an issue getting over any of these numbers, and has an outside shot to lead the league.
Since Kareem Hunt’s name carries so much weight in the fantasy community, people are way too down on Chubb. Hunt’s suspended the first eight games of the season, and will have to earn everything once he returns.
Chubb went for 996 yards as a rookie last season, on just 192 carries (5.2 YPC). He didn’t get more than three carries in any of Cleveland’s first six games of the season, but evolved into a fantasy stud in 10 games as the starter.
Make no mistake about it, Chubb will be the starter here, with Hunt working his way into the mix upon his return. Baker Mayfield should be locked and loaded with Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry, which should open up plenty of room for the running game.
Chubb shared time at Georgia with the likes of Sony Michel, but is cut from the same cloth as Ezekiel Elliot and Saquon Barkley as a pure runner. While he’s not quite on the level of those two, he also shouldn’t be this far behind them in the rushing title odds.
Offensive Rookie of the Year: N’Keal Harry (+2000)
Kyler Murray’s the clear-cut favorite at +175, but after that, we don’t see any other rookies being offered lower than +1000. Five other rookies check in before we get to the likes of Harry and Daniel Jones at +2000.
Murray deserves to be the favorite, and I’m very high on him personally. I’ve also placed a wager on Murray to be the ROY. But shifting the focus to long-shots, Harry has to be the guy.
The Patriots never spend draft capital this high on a WR, which means they have big plans to incorporate him into their offense. The same goes for the RB position — New England used a first-rounder on Michel a year earlier, and rode him down the stretch of the season and into the postseason.
I understand the reinstatement of Josh Gordon being a bit of a threat, as both are big, physical receivers, but let’s face the facts. As nice as it is for the Pats to have Gordon available right now, he’s also the least reliable player in the league because of the personal demons he struggles with.
Harry had a couple of spectacular years as a sophomore and junior at Arizona State, catching a combined 155 passes for 2,230 yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s the type of outside WR the Patriots have been missing on offense for some time, aside from the limited games Gordon’s suited up for.
Harry played just three snaps in his preseason debut, but secured two extremely difficult catches though a ton of contact. The rookie has a chance to play a big role in this offense, and ROY honors would pay admirably.