FanDuel’s updated odds to win the Heisman Trophy have Miami quarterback Cam Ward as the +350 ‘chalk.’
The next-shortest odds belong to Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart (+500), Alabama QB Jalen Milroe (+750), Tennessee QB Nico Iamaleava (+1000 or 10/1), Oregon QB Dillon Gabriel (12/1), Texas QB Quinn Ewers (14/1), Georgia QB Carson Beck (15/1), Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter (17/1), Ohio St. QB Will Howard (22/1), USC QB Miller Moss (22/1) and Penn St. QB Drew Allar (25/1).
Ward has led Miami to a 4-0 straight-up record and a 3-1 against-the-spread mark. He sparked the Hurricanes to a 50-15 win at South Florida as 16.5-point road ‘chalk’ in Week 4 by throwing for 404 yards and three touchdowns. Ward added 43 rushing yards on five attempts.
The Washington St. transfer has completed 72.4 percent of his passes for 1,439 yards and 14 TDs compared to two interceptions. Ward also has 89 rushing yards, one TD and a 7.4 yards-per-carry average.
Ward leads the country in TD passes and is ranked second in the nation in passing yards, sixth in QB rating (204.9) and 11th in completion percentage.
Dart has Ole Miss at 4-0 both SU and ATS going into Saturday’s SEC opener at home vs. Kentucky. He has connected on 79.8 percent of his throws for 1,554 yards with a 12/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The third-year starter for the Rebels also has 90 rushing yards, three TDs and a 3.9 YPC average.
Dart leads the nation in passing yards and is second in completion percentage and QB rating (219.4). He’s fourth in the country in TD passes.
Milroe has a major spotlight game Saturday at home vs. Georgia. In only three games, he’s completed 35-of-52 throws (67.3%) for 590 yards and eight TDs without an interception. He’s added 156 rushing yards, six TDs and has a 4.3 YPC average.
Iamaleava has led the Volunteers to a 4-0 record both SU and ATS. The redshirt freshman has completed 69.3 percent of his passes for 892 yards with a 7/2 TD-INT ratio. He’s added 117 rushing yards, one TD and a 4.7 YPC average.
Tennessee has an open date this weekend before playing at Arkansas in its SEC opener on Oct. 5.
Gabriel has led Oregon to a 3-0 record, but the Ducks have covered the spread only once and Gabriel’s odds have been reduced in recent weeks. The Oklahoma transfer has completed 79-of-94 passes (84.0%) for 914 yards and six TDs without an interception.
Gabriel, who leads the nation in completion percentage and is 10th in QB rating (186.8), has a pair of rushing TDs. He has a 131/26 career TD-INT ratio and 28 career rushing TDs.
The Ducks are off an open date ahead of Saturday’s Big Ten opener at UCLA.
Ewers sustained an abdominal injury in a 56-7 win over UTSA in Week 3. He missed Saturday’s 51-3 home win over ULM and might not be available for Saturday’s SEC opener at home vs. Mississippi St. The Longhorns then have an open date ahead of their showdown vs. Oklahoma on Oct. 12.
Ewers is expected to be ready for the Sooners, who knocked off Texas 34-30 last year.
Beck and Milroe will go head-to-head Saturday night in Tuscaloosa, where the UGA signal caller will try to lead his team to its first win at Bryant-Denny Stadium since Matthew Stafford threw a walk-off TD pass in overtime back in 2007.
Beck has completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 680 yards and seven TDs without an interception. However, Beck and the entire UGA offense struggled mightily in a 13-12 win at Kentucky in Week 3. Nevertheless, Beck might offer the best value on the board at his current 15/1 number.
Hunter might be the nation’s premier player, but many don’t consider him a legit candidate because Colorado isn’t expected to win a ton of games. But for now, the Buffaloes are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS after Saturday’s thrilling 38-31 overtime win over Baylor.
Hunter certainly had a Heisman-like moment against the Bears. After Colorado scored to take the lead in OT, Baylor RB Dominic Richardson appeared to be on his way to TD run, but Hunter met him before the goal line and forced a fumble that went out of the end zone to end the game.
Hunter had seven catches for 130 yards against Baylor. He also had three tackles and the forced fumble. For the season, Hunter has 37 receptions for 472 yards and five TDs. He also has 14 tackles, two passes broken up, one tackle for loss and one interception.
Players with longer odds include Boise St. RB Ashton Jeanty (33/1), Washington St. QB John Mateer (33/1), Clemson QB Cade Klubnik (35/1), Notre Dame QB Riley Leonard (50/1), Texas QB Arch Manning (55/1), LSU QB Garrett Nussmeier (60/1), Arizona QB Noah Fifita (65/1) and Missouri QB Brady Cook (65/1).
If you’re looking for a big-time longshot with 100/1 odds or more (to throw some small change at for fun, knowing it’s almost certainly going to lose), I’ve got a few ideas. Let’s start with Indiana QB Kurtis Rourke, a transfer from Ohio who ranks second in career passing yards for the Bobcats.
Rourke has led Curt Cignetti’s squad to a 4-0 SU record and a 3-1 ATS mark. The Hoosiers have won their first four games by margins of 24 points or more. Their Big Ten schedule doesn’t include Oregon or Penn St. (or still-unbeaten Illinois and Rutgers), and they get two weeks to prepare for a road game at Ohio St. when the Buckeyes will be in a look-ahead spot with Michigan on deck.
These are Indiana’s remaining games: vs. Maryland, at Northwestern, vs. Nebraska, vs. Washington, at Michigan St., vs. Michigan, at Ohio St. and vs. Purdue. With the exception of the trip to Columbus to take on the Buckeyes, is Indiana going to be favored in all of those games?
Unless Michigan gets hot and starts to show more life offensively, my answer is, “maybe.” And if IU is favored in seven of its next eight games, it’s certainly conceivable that the Hoosiers could go 10-2 or 11-1, right?
Indiana has been playing football since 1887. Guess how many times the Hoosiers have won 10 games in program history?
Answer: None.
How many times has IU won nine games? Twice. The Hoosiers went 9-0-1 in 1945, and they compiled a 9-2 record in 1967.
IF Indiana wins its next six games and is 10-0 with two weeks off ahead of its game at Ohio St., that will be a national story.
Furthermore, if IU starts 10-0, it’ll be because Rourke continues to play spectacular football like he’s done in the Hoosiers’ first four contests.
Rourke has completed 71-of-94 passes (75.5%) for 1,013 yards and eight TDs without an interception. He also has 55 rushing yards, two TDs and a 3.9 YPC average.
The 2022 MAC Offensive Player of the Year is ranked fourth nationally in QBR (92.4), trailing only Navy Blake Horvath (95.2), Ward (94.4) and Klubnik (93.3). Rourke is third in the country in RAW QBR (95.3) behind Horvath (97.9) and Ward (96.0).
Finally, I’ll make a case for Utah QB Cam Rising, who has 150/1 odds. Utah remains undefeated and is listed as the +180 ‘chalk’ to win the Big 12 at FanDuel. The next-shortest odds belong to UCF at +500.
Now, I’m certainly not implying that we can trust injury intel coming out of Salt Lake City (remember, Rising was a “game-time decision” for last year’s opener vs. Florida, but he didn’t play a snap all season), but the most recent reports are that Rising has been cleared to play for Saturday’s home game vs. Arizona.
With an open date the following week, I’d say it’s 50-50 that Rising plays against the Wildcats. But even if he doesn’t, I think the Utes will win (they were favored by 12 or 12.5 points Tuesday morning) to stay unbeaten.
That’ll leave seven games remaining when Rising presumably returns 100-percent healthy for a game at Arizona St. on Friday night (on national TV for Heisman voters to watch). With the potential exception of its regular-season finale at UCF, which – by the way – is also on a Friday for Heisman voters to observe, the Utes are almost certainly going to be favored in their remaining regular-season contests.
In Utah’s first six quarters before Rising suffered his injury, he completed 18-of-29 passes (62.1%) for 346 yards and seven TDs without an interception. He also had 46 rushing yards on six attempts for a 7.7 YPC average.
Rising’s QB rating is 241.95, which is the nation’s best. As previously noted, Dart’s 219.4 QB rating is second in the country.
If Rising makes it back for the ASU game, he’ll have seven games to bolster his numbers and if Utah remains undefeated, Rising could be in the conversation going into that showdown vs. UCF.