Let’s examine a pair of early SEC showdowns before exploring lots of other topics in B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets…
**Kentucky at Ole Miss**
-As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had Ole Miss (4-0 straight up, 4-0 against the spread) listed as a 17.5-point favorite with a total of 53. The Wildcats were anywhere +550 to +625 on the money line. For first-half wagers, the Rebels were favored by 9.5 or 10 points with a total of 27. The Westgate SuperBook had the best comeback price on the ‘Cats (+450) to have the lead at halftime. However, the number on the side was on the move early Thursday night when lots of shops moved the Rebels to -15. As of Saturday morning, the Westgate had Ole Miss at -14.5, but most other spots were in the -15 to -16 range. The total was down to 52 points.
-Lane Kiffin’s team has home wins over Furman (76-0), Middle Tennessee (52-3) and Ga. Southern (52-13), and it captured a 40-6 win at Wake Forest as a 20.5-point road favorite. The ‘under’ has hit in three straight games to improve to 3-1 overall.
-Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart has completed 95-of-119 passes (79.8%) for 1,554 yards with a 12/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He also has 90 rushing yards, three TDs and a 3.9 yards-per-carry average.
-Dart has an arsenal of weapons around him, including his favorite target Tre Harris, who has 38 receptions for 628 yards and four TDs. Harris is tops in the SEC and second in the nation in receiving yards. Antwane ‘Juice’ Wells has 14 catches for 274 yards and four TDs, while Cayden Lee has caught 14 balls 256 yards and one TD. WR Jordan Watkins missed the opener, but he has five receptions for 139 yards and two TDs. TE Caden Prieskorn has nine catches for 139 yards and one TD.
-Henry Parrish has been spectacular through four games, rushing for 427 yards and seven TDs while averaging 7.5 YPC. Matt Jones has 201 rushing yards, three TDs and a 6.7 YPC average.
-Ole Miss is ranked #1 nationally in total offense (670.8 yards per game), passing yards (422.8 YPG) and scoring with its 55.0 points-per-game average. The Rebels are #12 in the country in rushing yards (248.0 YPG).
-The Rebels are ranked #12 in the nation in total defense, #1 in run defense and #2 in scoring ‘D’ (5.5 PPG).
-Kentucky (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) opened the year with a 31-0 win over So. Miss as a 24.5-point home ‘chalk’ before suffering back-to-back home loss vs. South Carolina (31-6) and vs. Georgia (13-12). The Wildcats had a 23-12 advantage in first downs over UGA. They also had more total yards (284-262) and dominated time of possession (35:02-24:58). Nevertheless, the Bulldogs took their first lead of the game with 12:20 left on a Branson Robinson three-yard TD run and held on for the narrow victory.
-UK bounced back last week to thump Ohio by a 41-6 count as a 21.5-point home favorite. The 47 combined points went ‘over’ the 42-point total on Gavin Wimsatt’s two-yard TD run with 3:45 remaining. QB Brock Vandagriff completed 17-of-24 passes for 237 yards, while Jamarion Wilcox had a team-best 82 rushing yards on eight attempts. Demie Sumo-Karngbaye had 47 rushing yards and two TDs on 12 carries, and WR Dane Key hauled in seven catches for 145 yards.
-Vandagriff has connected on 46-of-79 throws (58.2%) for 550 yards with a 3/2 TD-INT ratio. He’ll look to use Key early and often, as the junior WR has 15 receptions for 264 yards. Sumo-Karngbaye has 274 rushing yards, three TDs and a 4.6 YPC average.
-The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for UK, with its combined scores netting 31, 37, 25 and 47 points.
-UK is 15-11-1 as a road underdog since the start of the 2016 campaign.
-Ole Miss has won three games in a row in this rivalry, including a 22-19 non-covering win as a 6.5-point home favorite in 2022. Dart threw for 213 yards and had 40 rushing yards as well, as the Rebels got a 26-yard field goal in the third quarter from Jonathan Cruz to take the three-point lead that stood up in a scoreless fourth quarter.
–You can hear my picks and analysis for this game at this link (S/O to Southeastern 16, link to full podcast in Bonus Nuggets below).
-Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ABC.
**Oklahoma at Auburn**
-As of Wednesday night, most spots had Oklahoma (3-1 SU, 2-2 ATS) as a two-point road favorite with a total of 45.5. OU was -125 on the money line, while the Tigers had +105 odds to win outright. This line moved a lot on Friday morning when Auburn (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) became the favorite. The number got up to Auburn -2, but most shops had AU at -1 or -1.5 early Saturday morning. The total was down to 44 points.
-Auburn is playing its fifth consecutive home game Saturday when it hosts Oklahoma at Jordan-Hare Stadium for the first time. The Tigers own wins over Alabama A&M (73-3) and New Mexico (45-19), but they’ve lost 21-14 to California and 24-14 vs. Arkansas.
-Auburn has issues galore at the QB position. Payton Thorne threw four interceptions against the Golden Bears, prompting Hugh Freeze to start redshirt freshman Hank Brown in Week 3. Brown led AU to a 45-19 win over New Mexico by throwing for 235 yards and four TDs without a pick.
-Brown had a much tougher time in his second career start in last week’s loss to the Razorbacks. He took a hook from Freeze after throwing three interceptions in the first half. Thorne wasn’t too bad in relief in the second half, throwing two TD passes compared to one interception, but the pick wasn’t on him. That pass hit his target in the hands and deflected right to an Arkansas defender. Sam Pittman’s team ended up collecting a 24-14 win as a 2.5-point road underdog.
-Oklahoma is giving true freshman QB Michael Hawkins his first career starts after he replaced an ineffective Jackson Arnold in last week’s 25-15 home loss to Tennessee. Hawkins led a pair of TD drives in the fourth quarter. He completed 11-of-18 passes for 132 yards and one TD without an interception. Hawkins also had 22 rushing yards on 12 attempts.
-Hawkins isn’t going to have five WRs for this game. Jayden Gibson is out for the season, while Jalil Farooq, Nic Anderson, Andrel Anthony and Deion Burks are ‘out’ today. On defense for the Sooners, LB Dasan McCullough is ‘out’ along with a pair of starters in CB Gentry Williams and Safety Kendel Dolby, who had 49 tackles, five tackles for loss, four QB hurries, four passes broken up, two interceptions and two sacks in 2023. Williams had 30 tackles, four TFL’s and three interceptions last season.
-OU owns a 4-0 ATS record as a road underdog over the last decade, but this is its first road ‘dog spot during Brent Venables’ three-year tenure.
-AU is 4-4 ATS as home favorite on Freeze’s watch.
-ABC will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.
**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**
–Here is this week’s Bets & Ballgames with Edwards and Greeson pod for Southeastern 16. Jay and I break down every SEC game and provide our best picks for the weekend.
-Boston College QB Thomas Castellanos is ‘out’ of today’s home game vs. Western Kentucky. Here are all of those details from my reaction article on Friday.
–Here’s my article on the 13 games DraftKings released look-ahead lines for in Week 6, including UCF at Florida, Auburn at Georgia, Miami at Cal and Tennessee at Arkansas. The Volunteers have now moved to -13.5 since I last updated that piece.
-Here are my Power Rankings going into Week 5.
–LSU star LB Harold Perkins was lost for the rest of the season after tearing his ACL in last week’s win over UCLA. The Tigers, who are 0-4 ATS, are 20.5-point home ‘chalk’ tonight vs. South Alabama and its star QB Gio Lopez, who has nine TD passes without an interception in three games. Kickoff in Redstick is set for 7:45 p.m. Eastern on the SEC Network. I got the Jaguars at +22 early in the week, and you can hear my analysis for this game right here.
-As of Wednesday night, most betting shops had Texas A&M (3-1 SU, ATS) installed as a four-point favorite for today’s showdown vs. Arkansas at Jerry’s World (AKA: AT&T Stadium) in Arlington, TX. The total was 52 points, and the Razorbacks were +155 on the money line. By Saturday morning, most spots had the Aggies at -6 with a total of 50.5 or 51 points. The Hogs were +185 to +195 to win outright.
-Texas A&M is 11-1 in the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these programs, but Arkansas is 4-2 ATS in the last six encounters. When these teams met last season, the Aggies sacked KJ Jefferson seven times because former offensive coordinator Dan Enos tried to make Jefferson a pocket passer. With Texas A&M leading 20-16 with 5:15 left in the third quarter, Chris Russell intercepted Jefferson and returned the pick 16 yards for a TD. Texas A&M ended up capturing a 34-22 win as a 6.5-point ‘chalk.’ Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. ET. on ESPN.
-Texas QB Quinn Ewers has been listed as ‘questionable’ all week, but the Longhorns have an open date next week and aren’t going to play him at home today vs. Mississippi St. Arch Manning will get his second career start under center. Most books have Texas favored by 37.5 points with a total of 58 or 58.5 against the Bulldogs, who saw starting QB Blake Shapen go down with a seaon-ending shoulder injury in last week’s 45-28 home loss to Florida. The SEC Network will have the telecast at 4:15 p.m. Eastern.
-According to “sources” for ESPN’s Pete Thamel, Louisville WR Caullin Lacy is “going to give it a shot” at making his season debut today at Notre Dame. We detailed Lacy’s injury and the timetable for his return back in August. U of L star CB Quincy Riley, who had 49 tackles, 11 PBU and three interceptions last year, is ‘doubtful.’
-Utah QB Cam Rising is going to be a game-time decision for today’s home game vs. Arizona. As of this morning, the Utes were favored by nine points with a total of 47.
–UGA WR London Humphreys is going to be ‘out’ for a third straight game with an undisclosed injury in tonight’s showdown at Alabama. Humphreys had two catches for 63 yards and a TD in the season-opening win over Clemson. UGA is also going to be without offensive guard Tate Ratledge, who was a second-team All-American in 2023. DE Mykel Williams is listed as ‘questionable’ and, according to Thamel, is a “true game-time decision’ due to an ankle injury. Most draftniks have Williams projected to be a top-10 pick in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Alabama has won eight of the last nine head-to-head meetings between these schools. As of this morning, the Bulldogs were -1 or -1.5 at most books. If that line holds until tonight’s 7:30 p.m. ET. kick on ABC, it will be the Crimson Tide’s first game as a home underdog since 2007.
-There are 13 FBS teams that are still unbeaten against the spread going into Week 5. There are six squads sporting 4-0 ATS records, including Ole Miss, Tennessee, BYU, Eastern Michigan, Pitt and San Jose St. Texas, Army, UCF, Louisville, Marshall and UNLV are 3-0 ATS, while Illinois is 3-0-1 ATS.
-Seven schools are 0-4 ATS: TCU, Kansas, LSU, Kent St., NC St., Middle Tennessee and Wyoming. Arizona, San Diego St., Air Force and Wisconsin are 0-3 versus the number and UNC is 0-3-1 ATS.
-The ‘over’ is 4-0 for Akron, Iowa and Vandy, while the ‘over’ is 3-0 for Ohio St., Boise St., Texas St., Ball St., Navy and New Mexico. Miami and UConn have seen the ‘over’ cash tickets at a 3-0-1 clip.
-The ‘under’ is 4-0 for Cal, Washington, FSU, UTEP & Houston. 3-0 ‘under’ schools include Air Force, Georgia, Miami (OH.), Kennesaw St. & Hawaii, & the ‘under’ is 3-0-1 for Buffalo.
–I’m on Illinois +18 today at Penn St. The Fighting Illini are 10-3 ATS in 13 games as a road underdog during Bret Bielema’s tenure. Illinois QB Luke Altmeyer has led his team to a 4-0 start by posting a 10/0 TD-INT ratio.
-Minnesota CB Justin Walley, who was a preseasons second-team All-Big Ten selection in Phil Steele’s magazine, is ‘out’ of today’s game at Michigan.
-Brent Pry was out there doing his best Les Miles impersonation with clock management last night. When you’re clearly that clueless, you don’t need to be a head football coach at any level!