Let’s start in Knoxville, where Tennessee (3-0 straight up, 1-2 against the spread) will host Texas in a battle of unbeaten teams playing their SEC opener. As of late Friday, most books had the Longhorns installed as 4.5-point road ‘chalk’ with a total of 54.5.
During Steve Sarkisian’s six-year tenure, Texas (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) is 7-10 ATS in 17 games as a road favorite. Sark’s squad went 0-3 ATS in three such spots last year.
Texas lost 29-21 at Florida and had to rally to force overtime in Lexington and Starkville. The Longhorns won 16-13 at Kentucky as 12.5-point road favorites and won a 45-38 decision at Mississippi St. as 7.5-point road favorites.
Tennessee is 2-0 ATS in its last two games as a home underdog, beating Alabama outright in 2024. Josh Heupel’s team lost 44-41 vs. Georgia in overtime as a 3.5-point home underdog last year, missing a potential game-winning field goal on the final play of regulation.
Tennessee true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon has lived up to his five-star billing to date, completing 41-of-64 passes (64.1%) for 552 yards and six touchdowns without an interception. He’s added 137 rushing yards and three TDs, averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
Tennessee junior RB DeSean Bishop has 286 rushing yards and four TDs with a 6.7 YPC average. He’s the catalyst for a Vols offense that’s ranked fifth in the nation in rushing yards.
Texas might be without RB Hollywood Smothers, who is going to be game-time decision due to an ankle injury that’s limited him in practice this week. Starting TE Nick Townsend and DT Justus Terry are both ‘out.’
Texas is on upset alert at Neyland Stadium.
Pick #1: Let’s risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit on Tennessee +5 (BetMGM).
Ole Miss (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) is in a vintage letdown scenario Saturday at Florida. The Rebels are off an emotional 32-24 win over LSU and their former head coach Lane Kiffin as a 2.5-point home underdog.
Trinidad Chambliss was spectacular, connecting on 33-of-48 throws for 363 yards with a 2/1 TD-INT ratio. He scored the game-winning TD on a 14-yard run with 6:14 remaining.
This is only the fifth time since 1978 that a team outside of the Top 20 (UF is #21 in the AP rankings) is favored over a top-five opponent. In the four previous instances, the top-five underdog has a 0-4 record both SU and ATS.
I’ve liked Florida to win this game for months because of the spot, and I feel better about the Gators now than I did during the summer. They’ve been fantastic on offense despite the absence of WR Eric Singleton, who is a game-time decision vs. Ole Miss.
Singleton went down with an ankle injury on UF’s first possession of its opener. There seems to be more optimism that he’ll play this week, however.
Whether Singleton can go or not, Pete Golding’s team is going to have a hard time stopping Florida RB Jadan Baugh, who had 162 rushing yards and three TDs on 26 carries in the Gators’ 44-39 win at Auburn last week.
That was a misleading final score. Auburn’s fans hit the exits quickly after Baugh’s 53-yard TD run on a fourth-and-one play gave UF a 41-24 lead with 12:39 remaining.
Chambliss is going to make a bunch of plays, but Baugh, Aaron Philo, Vernell Brown III and Dallas Wilson (and maybe Singleton?) will make a few more. I’ve got the Gators winning a 41-37 thriller.
Pick #2: Let’s risk 2.4 units to win 2 units on Florida -3 (buying the half-point).
Baugh has produced 160, 136 and 162 rushing yards in UF’s first three games. He also had 266 yards on the ground in last year’s regular-season finale vs. FSU.
Ole Miss is ranked #99 nationally out of 138 FBS teams in run defense.
Pick #3: Let’s risk 1.14 units on Baugh to go ‘over’ his player prop of 118.5 for rushing yards (-114 price at FanDuel).
Pick #4: Let’s risk 0.2 units to win 13 units on Baugh to win the Heisman Trophy (65/1 at FanDuel).
Pick #5: Let’s risk 0.5 units to win 0.94 units for Baugh to rush for 150+ rushing yards (+188 at FanDuel).
Alabama is averaging 47.7 points per game after producing scoring outputs of 48, 45 and 50 points. Forget about South Carolina’s overall defensive stats because it faced Kent St. and Towson in its first two games. When the Gamecocks were at home last week and led 16-0 midway through the second quarter, it gave up 41 points to Mississippi St. in 2.5 quarters.
South Carolina’s best player on defense is projected first-round pick Dylan Stewart, the true junior DE who missed the first two games of the season. In his 2026 debut last week, he played well but was limited to only 14 snaps. That makes me question his cardio. I’m sure he’ll get increased playing time this week, but will he get more than 30 snaps? That’s great for the Crimson Tide if he doesn’t.
Whatever the case, ‘Bama QB Keelon Russell has completed 68.7 percent of his passes for 764 yards with a 4/2 TD-INT ratio. He’s added 133 rushing yards and two TDs while averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Russell has been even better at home, as he threw both of his interceptions at Kentucky in Week 2 and was held to a season-low 188 passing yards.
I think the Tide gets to at least 35 points.
Pick #6: Let’s risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit on Alabama’s Team Total ‘over’ 33.5 points.
Mississippi St. is ranked #11 nationally in total yards and #17 in scoring with its 47.0 points-per-game average. The Bulldogs have scored 62, 38 and 41 points in their first three games with QB Kamario Taylor leading the way.
Taylor has completed 68.3 percent of his passes for 832 yards with an 11/1 TD-INT ratio. He’s added 178 rushing yards and one TD while averaging 6.6 yards per carry.
RB Fluff Bothwell has 280 rushing yards, two TDs and a 5.8 YPC average, while WR Anthony Evans has 20 receptions for 294 yards and three TDs.
Pick #7: Let’s risk 2.2 units to win 2 units on Mississippi St.’s Team Total ‘over’ 32.5 points vs. Missouri.
Missouri was just outplayed by Troy in a 27-17 win in Week 3. The Trojans had 18 first downs, 323 yards of total offense and possessed the ball nearly 15 minutes more than Eli Drinkwitz’s squad (37:23-22:37).
Missouri managed merely 13 first downs and 230 yards of total offense. The Tigers won because they were +2 in turnover margin and Troy missed a field goal.
Pick #8: Let’s risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit on Mississippi St. -5.5 (BetMGM and FanDuel).
*Most books have the Bulldogs at -6 and I would still like them all the way up to -7.
Although Tulsa (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) starting QB Baylor Hayes is ‘out’ Saturday night, I feel good about its QB2, Kennesaw St. transfer Dexter Williams, who started in a 42-0 win over East Texas A&M in Week 3. Williams completed 14-of-26 passes for 164 yards and three TDs without an interception in the blowout victory. In the last three seasons at Ga. Southern, Kennesaw St. and Tulsa, he has a 12/3 TD-INT ratio and four rushing TDs.
Williams has started five times in 14 appearances since 2024, so it’s not like the Golden Hurricane are turning to a true freshman signal caller.
Tre Lamb’s team opened the season with a 24-10 win vs. Oklahoma St. as a 13.5-point home underdog. Since then, the Cowboys have collected 39-31 and 59-0 home wins over Oregon and Murray St., respectively.
Tulsa went 3-2 ATS as a road underdog in Lamb’s first year on the job last season. Going back further, the Golden Hurricane own a 19-9-2 ATS record in 30 games as a road underdog since 2019.
Tulsa will come to Fayetteville with a defense that’s ranked seventh nationally in scoring ‘D,’ giving up an average of just 9.0 points per game.
Arkansas (1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS) is on a 12-game losing streak against FBS competition after losing 45-17 at home vs. Georgia last week. The Razorbacks are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games as home favorites, losing outright six times.
Pick #9: Let’s risk 1.1 units to win 1 unit on Tulsa +7 at Arkansas.
John Mateer is not playing good football. In fact, with the lone exception of WR Isaiah Sategna, nobody on Oklahoma’s offense has played well in the last two games.
Georgia hasn’t played anybody, but it’s dealing out Pimpslaps and clicking on all cylinders.
Pick #10: Let’s risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units on UGA -13 (Circa).
Bob Chesney vs. Mike Locksley in the head-coaching matchup? That’s enough for me.
Let’s risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units on UCLA -1.5 at Maryland.