As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had Miami (9-2 straight up, 6-5 against the spread) listed as a seven-point road favorite for Saturday’s ACC showdown at Pittsburgh. The total was in the 49.5 to 50.5 range, while the Panthers were in the +210 to +230 neighborhood on the money line.
According to weather.com, the forecast for Saturday was calling for cloudy skies in the afternoon with a high temperature of 37 degrees Fahrenheit and the possibility of a few flurries or snow showers.
Pitt (8-3 SU, 8-3 ATS) is 6-1 both SU and ATS in its last seven games, including five wins by margins of 14 points or more. The Panthers’ lone loss during this stretch came to Notre Dame, which is currently on a nine-game winning streak.
Pat Narduzzi’s team is coming off a dominant 42-28 win at Ga. Tech without their best offensive weapon in running back Desmond Reid, who was a second-team All-American last season. Pitt raced out to a 21-0 lead in the first quarter and went ahead 28-0 on true freshman quarterback Mason Heintschel’s three-yard touchdown run with 11:47 remaining in the second quarter.
When Ga. Tech responded with 14 unanswered points and advanced into the red zone midway through the third quarter, Pitt’s Braylan Lovelace intercepted Haynes King and returned the pick 100 yards for a TD to give his team a 35-14 advantage.
The Panthers held on to win as 2.5-point underdogs, and the 70 combined points soared ‘over’ the 60.5-point total.
Without Reid, true freshman RB Ja’Kyrian Turner ran for 201 yards and one TD on 21 carries. Heintschel completed 20-of-27 throws for 226 yards and two TDs without an interception.
Pitt’s defense is ranked ninth nationally versus the run. As for the offense, it is ranked 15th in passing yards and 12th in scoring with its 41.4 points-per-game average.
Heintschel is 6-1 as a starter, completing 63.1 percent of his passes for 1,899 yards with a 14/6 TD-INT ratio and two rushing TDs. Turner has 615 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 5.4 yards-per-carry average.
Reid is listed as ‘questionable’ with an ankle issue. Pitt has compiled a 10-6 ATS record in its last 16 games as a home underdog since 2018.
Miami (9-2 SU, 6-5 ATS) won its first five games of the season before losing a 24-21 decision to Louisville as a 10.5-point home favorite back on Oct. 12. After bouncing back with a win over Stanford, the Hurricanes lost 26-20 at SMU in overtime as 10-point road ‘chalk.’
Since then, Mario Cristobal’s team has won three games in a row while posting a 1-2 ATS record.
UM is 3-6 both SU and ATS in nine November road games during Mario Cristobal’s four-year tenure. The Hurricanes are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS in their six games as road favorites on Cristobal’s watch in November.
When Miami was in a similar position last year, it folded down the stretch in road losses at Ga. Tech and at Syracuse in its last three games. The defeats kept the ‘Canes out of the College Football Playoff.
I’m sensing another collapse Saturday in the cold at Acrisure Stadium.
PREDICTIONS: Let’s risk 1.65 units to win 1.5 units on Pitt +7. Let’s also risk 0.5 units to win 1.15 units on the money line (+230 at South Point).