I’m hoping that the underdogs are going to continue to bark against the nation’s most disappointing team.
Justin Wilcox has certainly made a habit of doing so during his eight-year tenure at California. The Golden Bears are once again in that familiar role of underdogs Saturday when they play at FSU (0-3 straight up, 0-3 against the spread) on ESPN2 at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.
As of early Wednesday afternoon, most books had the Seminoles listed as 2.5-point home ‘chalk’ with the total in the 44-45 range.
California (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) has made its backers greenbacks galore as a road underdog on Wilcox’s watch, compiling an 18-9 spread record. The Golden Bears are 30-15 ATS in 45 total games as ‘dogs since Wilcox took over.
On the flip side, FSU is 8-13 ATS in 21 games as a home favorite since Mike Norvell was hired.
Cal has home wins over UC Davis (31-13) and San Diego St. (31-10), in addition to a road win at Auburn (21-14) as an 11.5-point underdog.
Cal won and covered last week despite the absence of star RB Jaydn Ott, who was nursing an injury but has already been dubbed as ‘probable’ for Saturday’s ACC showdown in Tallahassee. Ott was a first-team All-Pac-12 selection in 2023 when he had 1,315 rushing yards, 12 touchdowns and a 5.3 yards-per-carry average.
RB Jaivian Thomas has played spectacular while Ott’s been limited in recent weeks. Thomas has 241 rushing yards, one TD and a 7.8 YPC average.
Cal QB Fernando Mendoza is playing the best football of his career. He’s completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 589 yards with a 5/1 TD-INT ratio.
The Golden Bears are ranked #27 nationally in scoring defense, holding opponents to an average of 12.3 points per game. A lot of that credit should go to a pair of transfers making an instant impact in Berkeley.
Wilcox brought in 23 new players from the portal. The transfer-specific imports earned a #17 ranking nationally in the 247Sports Composite.
LB Teddye Buchanan (UC Davis) and nose guard Aidan Keanaaina (Notre Dame) were named to ESPN’s September all-transfer team released this morning. In three games at Cal, Keanaaina has already logged more snaps than he did in four seasons with the Fighting Irish.
The fourth-year junior is the Golden Bears’ third-leading tackler with 12 stops, one pass broken up and 0.5 tackles for loss. Keanaaina’s presence in the middle has played a key role in Cal’s run defense.
Buchanan has a team-best 31 tackles, four TFL’s, 2.5 sacks, two QB hurries, one forced fumble and one PBU. He’s ranked fifth in the ACC in tackles and 10th in TFL’s.
Buchanan was the difference in Cal’s win on The Plains over Auburn, recording 11 tackles, three TFL’s, two sacks, two QB hurries and one forced fumble.
FSU has lost a neutral-field game in Dublin, Ireland, vs. Ga. Tech (24-21) as a 10-point favorite. Norvell’s squad has also lost home games vs. Boston College (28-13) as a 16.5-point ‘chalk’ and vs. Memphis (20-12) as a seven-point favorite.
Since last year’s star QB Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury, the ‘Noles have failed to produce 300 yards of total offense in six consecutive games. They’ve been terrible in the trenches on both sides of the ball.
FSU is ranked #103 in the country out of 134 FBS teams in run defense. The ‘Noles are ranked #127 nationally in total offense, #132 in rushing yards and #123 in scoring with their abysmal 15.3 PPG average.
Norvell’s squad lost a ton of talent and leadership to the 2024 NFL Draft. In hopes of revitalizing his roster with similar talent, he brought in the nation’s #7 group of transfers per the 247Sports Composite.
One of the “prizes” of that bunch was DJ Uiagalelei, who reportedly inked an NIL deal worth around $1 million for his lone season at FSU. But DJU hasn’t lived up to the expectations that come with such a lucrative deal.
The former 5-star prep prospect, who started his career at Clemson before playing at Oregon St. in 2023, has completed only 56.6 percent of his passes for 666 yards and one TD compared to two interceptions.
DJU’s QB rating (112.37) and completion percentage are ranked last among 16 ACC starting signal callers. Check that, he’s 17th in both categories, as SMU’s Kevin Jennings and Preston Stone, who have split time under center for the Mustangs, are both ranked ahead of him.
When your high-paid QB is playing like the worst QB in a not-very-elite conference, it’s probably not going over well in the locker room. In other words, the chemistry isn’t great at FSU right now.
I don’t see it getting any better Saturday night at Doak Campbell Stadium, either.
PREDICTION: Cal +2.5 for 1.5 units.