As of early Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops had unbeaten BYU (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) installed as an 18.5 or 19-point home favorite for Friday’s showdown vs. West Virginia at 10:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
The total was 47 or 47.5 points, while the Mountaineers were in the +750 to +800 range on the money line. For first-half wagers, the Cougars were -10.5 with a total of 24.5 points.
BYU is 2-0 both SU and ATS in a pair of home games this year, blasting Portland St. 69-0 before beating Stanford by a 27-3 count. The Cougars are getting excellent quarterback play from true freshman Bear Bachmeier, who has connected on 61-of-90 throws (67.8%) for 697 yards and six touchdowns without an interception. He’s also produced 163 rushing yards, four TDs and a 4.4 yards-per-carry average.
The Cougars, who are off a 24-21 win at Colorado, also have a 34-13 road win at East Carolina on their resume. They’re also 5-2 ATS in their seven games as home favorites.
West Virginia (2-3 SU, 2-3 ATS) has to travel across the country on a short week and into altitude, making this an unfavorable spot before any other circumstances are considered. In this instance, though, we’ve got circumstances negatively impacting the Mountaineers, who have personnel issues galore and are playing their sixth game in six weeks.
They’re going to be without starting QB Nicco Marchiol, who has decided to take a medical redshirt due to a foot injury sustained at Kansas in Week 4.
In four games this season, Marchiol completed 66-of-98 passes (67.3%) for 720 yards and two touchdowns with two interceptions. He also has 57 rushing yards and one TD.
WVU’s QB2 and QB3 are both listed as ‘questionable.’ That would be Texas A&M transfer Jaylen Henderson and Charlotte transfer Max Brown, respectively. Both were ineffective in last week’s 48-14 home loss vs. Utah.
Furthermore, WVU lost two of its best players, RB Jahiem White and WR Jaden Bray, to season-ending injuries early last month. And finally, WR Oran Singleton is also ‘questionable.’ In three games, he has four catches for 22 yards and 34 rushing yards on four attempts.
Rich Rodriguez knew he was facing a transition year in first season back at the helm of his alma mater, but injuries have made the situation even worse. WVU has lost 17-10 at Ohio, 41-10 at Kansas and last week’s aforementioned defeat at home to the Utes.
PREDICTIONS: I’ll risk 1.65 units to win 1.5 units on BYU -18.5, and I’ll also place 0.55 units down on BYU -10.5 in the first half to win 0.5 units.