The initial 12-team College Football Playoff format was set this past Sunday afternoon. SMU edged out Alabama for the final spot after losing to Clemson on a walk-off, 56-yard field goal on the final play of the ACC Championship Game.
If there’s a major controversy with the sport’s first extended version of the CFP, it’s the path top-seeded and unbeaten Oregon has to face to make the finals. The Ducks have a first-round bye, but they’ll have to take on the Ohio St.-Tennessee winner in Pasadena at the Rose Bowl in the quarterfinals.
If Dan Lanning’s team gets past the Buckeyes or Volunteers, it might have to play Texas. Just like Ohio St., the Longhorns spent time at #1 this season.
FanDuel has Oregon and Texas as the +360 co-favorites to win the CFP finals at Mercedes-Benz Dome in Atlanta on Jan. 20. The next-shortest odds belong to Georgia (+500), Ohio St. (+500), Penn St. (+550) and Notre Dame (+700).
The teams with longer odds start with Tennessee (+2500 or 25/1), followed by SMU (40/1), Indiana (40/1), Arizona St. (60/1), Clemson (60/1) and Boise St. (60/1).
Notre Dame (11-1 straight up, 10-2 against the spread) will play host to 10th-seeded Indiana to start the CFP in a standalone first-round showdown on Friday night (Dec. 20) at 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC and ESPN. As of Wednesday morning (12/11), most books had the Fighting Irish listed as a 7.5 or eight-point home favorite with a total of 50.5 or 51.
Indiana (11-1 SU, 9-3 ATS) was in the +240 to +265 range on the money line. For first-half wagers, Notre Dame was -4.5 with a total of 24.5 points.
Marcus Freeman’s squad has won 10 games in a row while going 9-1 ATS, including nine wins by double-digit margins. The Irish have gone 3-0 ATS in three games as single-digit ‘chalk.’
Indiana has 10 wins by margins of at least 14 points, including its first nine in the first year of Curt Cignetti’s tenure. Before Cignetti’s arrival, the Hoosiers had won nine games only twice (1945 and 1967) in the program’s history that dates back to 1887.
Since the 9-0 start, IU hosted Michigan and went to halftime with a 17-3 lead. However, the Wolverines scored 12 unanswered points in the second half, but the Hoosiers still held on to win a 20-15 decision.
After its open date, IU lost 38-15 at Ohio St. in its lone underdog spot of the year catching 10.5 points. Nevertheless, Cignetti’s bunch bounced back to clobber Purdue 66-0 in its regular-season finale.
The IU-Notre Dame winner will advance to face second-seeded Georgia in the Allstate Sugar Bowl in New Orleans on New Year’s Day at 8:45 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.
FanDuel’s hypothetical lines (as of 12/11) had UGA as a 5.5-point favorite vs. Indiana with a total of 52.5. The betting shop had Notre Dame as a 1.5-point ‘chalk’ vs. the Bulldogs, who might be without starting QB Carson Beck due to an elbow injury sustained in an overtime win over Texas at the SEC Championship Game.
The total for UGA-Notre Dame was 46.5 points. Even if Beck can’t go, I would be all over Kirby Smart’s squad as a ‘dog vs. the Fighting Irish if that matchup comes to fruition.
(To be clear, gamblers can make that wager now and I would if I had a FanDuel account. If the game doesn’t materialize, bets become no-plays.)
On Dec. 21, college football fans will have a tripleheader for the ages. The action starts at noon Eastern when sixth-seeded Penn St. will take on SMU on TNT.
As of Wednesday morning, most spots had the Nittany Lions as an 8.5-point favorite with a total of 53.5. The Mustangs were +250 to win outright.
Penn St. (11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS) won eight games by double-digit margins during the regular season. The only losses for James Franklin’s team came at home vs. Ohio St. (20-13) and vs. Oregon (45-37) at the Big Ten Championship Game.
SMU (11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS) won outright in both of its games as an underdog, including a 66-42 win over TCU as a 1.5-point home underdog and a 34-27 win at Louisville as a 6.5-point road ‘dog.
The PSU-SMU winner will be headed to the Fiesta Bowl to challenge third-seeded Boise St. at 7:30 p.m. Eastern on New Year’s Eve in Tempe on ESPN. FanDuel had PSU -11.5 vs. BSU (on 12/11) with a total of 54.5 points. The book had the Mustangs -6.5 vs. the Broncos with a total of 59.5 points.
The second game on Dec. 21 will go down in Austin, where Texas (11-2 SU, 7-6 ATS) will face 12th-seeded Clemson at 4:00 p.m. Eastern on TNT. Most spots had the Longhorns installed as 11-point home favorites with a total of 51.5. The Tigers were in the +325 to +350 neighborhood to win outright.
Steve Sarkisian’s team will be in bounce-back mode after losing 22-19 vs. UGA in OT at the SECCG. Texas has struggled as a double-digit favorite recently, limping to a 2-4 ATS record in its last six such spots.
Clemson (10-3 SU, 6-6 ATS) has been an underdog twice this year, going 1-1 both SU and ATS. The Tigers beat SMU last week 34-31 as 2.5-point ‘dogs, but they lost 34-3 vs. UGA as 10.5-point ‘dogs in Atlanta on Aug. 31.
The Texas-Clemson winner will take on fourth-seeded Arizona St. in the CFP quarterfinals at 1:00 p.m. Eastern in Atlanta at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl on ESPN. FanDuel had the Longhorns -13.5 (at a -105 price) vs. ASU with a total of 51.5 points.
The book had Clemson as a 4.5-point favorite vs. the Sun Devils with a total of 53.5.
The primetime matchup on Dec. 21 will go down in Columbus, where Ohio St. (10-2 SU, 6-6 ATS) will host ninth-seeded Tennessee. As of Dec. 11, most shops had the Buckeyes as 7.5-point favorites with a total of 47. The best money-line price on the Volunteers was +240 at the Westgate SuperBook.
FanDuel has Oregon as a 4.5-point favorite (-115 price) vs. Tennessee with a total of 52.5. The book has the Ducks at -1.5 (-104 price) vs. Ohio St. with a total of 53.5 points.
Lanning’s team won a 32-31 decision over the Buckeyes as 3.5-point home underdogs back on Oct. 12. The 63 combined points went ‘over’ the 54.5-point total.