Florida State (3-4 straight up, 3-4 against the spread) will play host to Wake Forest on Saturday night in hopes of ending its nine-game losing streak to ACC opponents. The Seminoles have had two weeks to stew on their 20-13 loss at Stanford as 17.5-point road favorites.
With speculation swirling about the job security of sixth-year head coach Mike Norvell, the school announced on the Monday morning after the loss to the Cardinal that it would push back any decision on a potential coaching change until the end of the season.
Whatever the case, it’s fair to say that if Norvell doesn’t get his team rolling in its final five games that he’ll be looking for a job in early December. In fact, he might have to win out.
The looming five-game stretch starts at home vs. Wake Forest. Next, FSU plays at Clemson prior to hosting Va. Tech. The ‘Noles will end the year with back-to-back road assignments at NC St. and at Florida.
As of Wednesday afternoon, most books had FSU installed as a 9.5 or 10-point home favorite with a total of 49 or 49.5 points. The Demon Deacons were in the +265 to +290 range on the money line.
Wake Forest (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) is 2-0 both SU and ATS in a pair of road games with wins at Va. Tech (30-23) and at Oregon St. (39-14). The Deacs have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings in this rivalry, including a 31-21 win at FSU as seven-point road underdogs in 2022.
They are led by first-year head coach Jake Dickert, who has a chance to beat out Ga. Tech’s Brent Key and/or Virginia’s Tony Elliott for ACC Coach of the Year honors with a strong November.
Since a controversial 30-29 overtime loss to Ga. Tech as a 13.5-point home underdog, Wake Forest has ripped off three consecutive wins both SU and ATS, including last week’s 13-12 win over SMU as a five-point home underdog. Connor Calvert buried a 50-yard field goal that inched past the crossbar for the win on the game’s final play.
When still-undefeated Ga. Tech came to Winston-Salem on Sept. 27, Wake Forest led 17-3 at halftime and extended its lead to 20-3 on Calvert’s 24-yard field goal with 10:33 left in the third quarter. However, starting QB Robby Ashford sat out most of the third quarter with a knee injury before returning in the final stanza.
The Yellow Jackets scored 17 unanswered points to pull even at 20-20 midway through the fourth quarter. Wake responded by driving 65 yards in nine plays, but Calvert missed a go-ahead field goal from only 27 yards out.
But Ga. Tech RB Jamal Haynes fumbled on the next play. When the Deacs’ next drive stalled, Calvert nailed a 29-yard field goal with 5:08 remaining for a 23-20 advantage.
After forcing Ga. Tech to punt, Wake Forest took over at its own 7 with 3:50 left. The Deacs got a first down just before the two-minute warning, but the Yellow Jackets still had timeouts left.
Facing a third-and-five play with 1:48 remaining, Ga. Tech clearly jumped offsides as Ashford dropped back to pass. Thinking he had a free play, Ashford threw incomplete down the field.
To his shock, no flag was called. Therefore, the Deacs had to punt. Ga. Tech QB Haynes King drove his team down the field and Aidan Birr’s 33-yard field goal with two seconds left forced OT.
After Ga. Tech scored on its possession for a 30-23 lead, Wake star RB Demon Claiborne scored on a 25-yard TD run. Dickert opted to go for the win with a two-point conversion, but the attempt failed.
In Wake’s only other defeat this year, it also allowed a double-digit lead to get away in a 34-24 loss at NC St.
Claiborne is one of the nation’s premier RBs. He has 612 rushing yards, eight TDs and a 6.7 yards-per-carry average. Claiborne also has 17 catches for 74 yards.
Wake Forest is ranked #12 nationally in both total defense and pass defense.
FSU has lost four games in a row both SU and ATS, including home losses to Miami and Pittsburgh. The ‘Noles are 3-15 SU in their last 18 games against FBS opponents, including eight losses by margins of 15 points or more.
FSU is 12-14 ATS as a home favorite during Norvell’s tenure. Wake is 1-0 both SU and ATS as a road ‘dog on Dickert’s watch, but the Deacs are 21-13 ATS in 34 games as road ‘dogs since 2015.
Kickoff at Doak-Campbell Stadium is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on the ACC Network.
PREDICTION: Let’s risk 2.2 units to win two units on Wake Forest +10 and also back the Deacs for 0.5 units on the money line for a +290 payout to win 1.45 units.