Miami (OH.) (32-1 straight up, 22-11 against the spread) proved it belonged in the 2026 NCAA Tournament on Wednesday night at the First Four in Dayton, where the RedHawks drained 16-of-41 attempts from 3-point range (39%) and committed only four turnovers en route to an 89-79 win over SMU as 7.5-point underdogs. The 168 combined points went ‘over’ the 161.5-point total.
Miami hooked up its money-line supporters with a payout in the +270 neighborhood.
Eian Elmer buried 6-of-9 treys, 8-of-11 field-goal attempts and scored a game-high 23 points, while Brant Byers knocked down 4-of-9 from downtown in a 19-point effort. Luke Skaljac finished with 17 points, four assists, three steals and three rebounds, and Almar Atlason had 12 points, five boards, three assists and one blocked shot.
Travis Steele’s squad had four separate double-digit leads in the first half, but SMU’s Jaron Pierre Jr.’s layup with 39 seconds left to the first half cut the deficit to 43-34 at halftime. The Mustangs, who were playing without star guard B.J. Edwards, started the second half with a 15-5 run to briefly take the lead.
However, Miami countered with a 15-1 run that was capped by a 25-foot 3-ball from Atlanson to extend the lead to 63-50 with 10:18 remaining. SMU cut it to seven three different times the rest of the way, but that was as close as the Mustangs would get.
Miami showed America why it went 31-0 in the regular season with its beautiful offense featuring crisp passing, sharp cutting and shooters galore for 40 minutes.
“We more than belong. We can advance deep into this tournament. Our group is fully confident in that. Fully confident,” said Steele in an interview with TNT Sports after his team’s first Tournament win since Wally Szczerbiak led Miami to the Sweet 16 in 1999.
DraftKings and FanDuel opened sixth-seeded Tennessee (22-11 SU, 14-19 ATS) as a 10.5-point favorite for Friday’s showdown vs. Miami (OH.) at Xfinity Mobile Arena in Philadelphia at around 4:25 p.m. Eastern. As of Thursday morning, most spots had adjusted the Volunteers to -11.5 with the total in the 148.5 to 149.5 range. The RedHawks were +490 on the money line at FanDuel.
Rick Barnes’s team has been a double-digit favorite 14 times this season, compiling a 7-7 spread record. Miami has won outright in all five of its games as an underdog this year.
Miami’s Team Total is 68.5 points vs. the Vols, who KenPom has ranked #15 nationally in defensive efficiency. The RedHawks lead the nation in scoring (94.0 points per game) and field-goal percentage (52.6%), and they’re ranked ninth in 3-point accuracy (39.3%).
FanDuel has Miami with 1,000/1 odds to win the 2026 NCAA Tournament. The RedHawks have 27/1 odds to reach the Sweet 16.
PREDICTIONS: I’ll risk 2.2 units to win two units on Miami +11.5. In addition, I’ll risk 1.1 units to win one unit on the RedHawks’ Team Total ‘over’ 68.5 points.