Ladies and Gentlemen: You know what time it is!
The Miami Hurricanes (4-14 straight up, 3-15 against the spread) play basketball again tonight. In fact, they play in Palo Alto, which is 3,089 miles away from Coral Gables. A google search indicates the flight is about six hours and 15 minutes.
My twitter account has been harping on going against this team for weeks. Here’s an example of that this past Saturday morning nearly four hours before UM tipped at home vs. SMU.
Those plays – SMU -5 or -5.5 for three units and SMU -3 in the first half for one unit – were easy winners for four units of profit. The Mustangs led from start to finish, went on a 47-11 run to take a 56-18 lead with 2:12 left in the first half and enjoyed a 60-26 advantage at halftime after UM made four straight shots before the break.
They led by as many as 45 points in the second half, hit triple digits with 6:16 remaining and won, 117-74.
Miami has lost seven games in a row and is mired in a 0-8 ATS slide. The ‘Canes have lost all seven of their ACC games, losing by double-digit margins in six of those.
UM started the season with three straight wins. Those victories came at home over Fairleigh Dickinson, Binghamton and Coppin St., who are ranked #321, #326 and #362 out of 364 Division-1 teams in KenPom’s rankings.
Since then, Miami has lost 14 of its last 15 contests. The one win came at home vs. #262 Presbyterian.
Head coach Jim Larranaga retired after the ‘Canes lost 78-74 in overtime at home vs. #268 Mount St. Mary’s. The remaining staff hasn’t been able to get much effort from the players since Larranaga’s exit, and those coaches are probably looking around for new jobs because it’s a given they won’t be retained.
Making matters worse, senior guard Nijel Pack has been sidelined with a foot injury since Dec. 10. Pack leads UM in scoring (13.9 points per game), assists (4.3 APG) and 3-point accuracy (38.6%).
When interim head coach Bill Courtney was asked this past Saturday if Pack would be making this week’s West-coast trip or be returning at all this season, he said, “I don’t know.”
As of late this morning, most books had Stanford (12-6 straight up, 10-8 against the spread) installed as an 11-point home favorite with the total in the 151 to 152 range. The ‘Canes were +475 on the money line.
Stanford’s Team Total was 81.5 points.
Kyle Smith’s team has won three of its last four games both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 72-71 win at North Carolina, an 88-65 home win over Virginia and a 70-59 win over Va. Tech.
When Stanford has faced opponents outside of KenPom’s Top 100 (Miami is #175), it has posted a 10-1 SU record and seven of those wins have been by at least 11 points and six have been by 14 or more.
Tip-off is scheduled for 11:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPNU.
PREDICTIONS: Let’s go with Stanford -11 risking 2.2 units to win 2. Let’s also take Stanford -5.5 or -6 (+100, even-money price) for one unit and Stanford’s Team Total ‘over’ 81.5 points for 0.5 units.
As for the play on Stanford’s Team Total ‘over,’ here are some thoughts below:
Stanford has only had five scoring outputs that have gone North of 81.5 points. The Cardinal scored 88 points at home vs. Virginia, 89 at California, 90 vs. Cal Poly, 90 vs. Northern Arizona and 85 vs. Denver.
However, we’re just betting against Miami here.
KenPom has Miami ranked #341 out of 364 Division-1 teams in defensive efficiency. In their last five games, the ‘Canes have given up scoring outputs of 117, 89, 88, 80 and 86 points, so four of those have gone ‘over’ Stanford’s Team Total for tonight.
KenPom has Stanford ranked #46 nationally in offensive efficiency. The Cardinal averages 76.3 points per game and is ranked #28 in the country in free-throw accuracy (77.7%).