As of early this afternoon, most books had St. John’s (31-4 straight up, 22-12-1 against the spread) installed as a seven-point favorite vs. Arkansas in today’s 2:40 p.m. Eastern tip at Amica Mutual Pavilion. This Round-of-32 showdown had a total of 146 or 146.5 points, while the Razorbacks had +250 to +280 money-line odds.
Arkansas (21-13 SU, 15-17-1 ATS) has played outstanding basketball over the last seven weeks, posting a 9-5 SU record and a 10-3-1 ATS mark in its last 14 games. But two of the three non-covers were by one combined point in a pair of ATS defeats by the hook.
The Razorbacks are 7-2 ATS with four outright wins in their last nine games as underdogs, but one of those non-covers was a winner for some Arkansas backers, as it was an 8.5-point underdog overnight and the morning of an eight-point loss at Texas A&M that saw the number close at 7.5.
Since the start of February, John Calipari’s team has an 89-79 win at Kentucky, a 78-70 win at Texas, a 92-85 home win over Missouri, an 86-81 home win over Texas in overtime, a 90-77 win at Vandy, a 93-92 home win over Mississippi St. and Thursday’s 79-72 win over Kansas.
Star guard Boogie Fland returned from a 15-game absence to play 24 minutes and contribute six points, three steals and three assists without a turnover against the Jayhawks. It was a hand injury that had him sidelined, so he was able to stay in decent shape.
Cardio didn’t appear to be an issue when Fland was shaking the rust off vs. KU. I’d expect him to be in better shape today and contribute even more.
Arkansas guard Johnell Davis, the transfer from FAU who led the Owls to the 2023 Final Four along with Florida guard Alijah Martin, has been a key reason for the Hogs turning their season around recently. He had 18 points, three rebounds, two steals, one assist and one blocked shot against the Jayhawks.
Since Jan. 25, Davis has scored in double figures in 13 of the Hogs’ last 15 games. He’s scored at least 13 points in 11 of their last 15 contests.
PREDICTIONS: Arkansas +7 risking 2.75 units to win 2.5 units. Let’s also risk 0.5 units on the Razorbacks to win outright for a +280 return (South Point) that would win us 1.4 units. Finally, let’s risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units on Davis to go ‘over’ his player prop of 12.5 for points scored.
One final thought: We readily concede that we are at an enormous disadvantage in the head-coaching department with Calipari facing Rick Pitino. However, we were in a similar boat vs. Bill Self’s KU squad Thursday night, and the results worked out just fine. Whether you tail or fade, best of luck to all with your bets.