As of early Saturday afternoon, most books had top-seeded Auburn (29-5 straight up, 18-16 against the spread) listed as an 8.5 or nine-point favorite tonight vs. ninth-seeded Creighton. The total was 149.5 points, and the Bluejays were in the +340 to +375 range on the money line.
I made Auburn a 5.5-point favorite vs. Creighton. Other than a 106-76 home win over Ole Miss, an 80-68 win at Vandy and a 94-85 win at Alabama, the Tigers haven’t looked like the dominant team we saw from November through January since a 90-81 home loss to Florida on Feb. 8.
Since a 67-60 non-covering home win over Arkansas as a 16-point favorite on Feb. 19, Auburn is 2-7 ATS. The Tigers have lost three of their last five games outright while going 0-5 ATS.
Creighton (25-10 SU, 20-13-2 ATS) is in the Round of 32 for the fifth straight year thanks to an 89-75 win over Louisville in Thursday’s first-round matchup at Rupp Arena in Lexington. Despite playing what was basically a road game in terms of crowd noise, the Bluejays raced out to a 49-34 halftime lead and coasted to victory as three-point underdogs.
Jamiya Neal picked a great time to produce a career-best performance. The Arizona St. transfer guard erupted for 29 points on 11-of-16 shooting from the field. Neal added 12 rebounds, one blocked shot and six assists compared to just two turnovers.
Steven Ashworth contributed 22 points, draining 4-of-8 launches from 3-point range. He also had five rebounds, one steal and five assists compared to only one turnover.
Ryan Kalkbrenner finished with 14 points, making 6-of-8 FGAs. He also had six rebounds and four blocked shots.
Creighton is gunning for its fourth trip to the Sweet 16 in the last five seasons. The Bluejays have the head-coaching advantage (at least in the X’s and O’s department tonight) and have more NCAA Tournament experience.
They’re 18-5 SU in their last 23 games and are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 contests. Greg McDermott’s team is 8-2-1 ATS with five outright wins in its 11 games as an underdog this season.
Ryan Kalkbrenner, the Bluejays’ 7-foot-1, 270-pound fifth-year senior center, is sixth in Big East history in career blocked shots with 399. He’s led the league in blocked shots in three consecutive seasons.
In 30 games this year, Kalkbrenner is averaging 19.4 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.7 blocked shots per game. He’s hit 66.3 percent of his FGAs.
I expect Kalkbrenner’s length to give SEC Player of the Year Johni Broome some problems in the paint. It’ll be key for Kalkbrenner to stay out of foul trouble.
PREDICTION: Let’s back Creighton +9 for 1.5 units (risking 1.65) and let’s risk 0.25 units to win 0.94 units by backing the Bluejays on the money line at +375 odds (Westgate SuperBook).