As of early Tuesday afternoon, most books had Dayton (8-3 straight up, 5-6 against the spread) installed as a seven-point favorite for tonight’s home game vs. FSU. The total was 160.5 points, while the Seminoles were in the +240 to +260 range on the money line.
Dayton’s Team Total is listed at 82.5 or 83.5 points at various juice amounts depending on the book. The Flyers’ Team Total in the first half is either 39.5 or 40.
FSU (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) has posted its five wins this season over Alcorn St. (#328 out of 364 Division-1 teams in KenPom’s rankings), #261 Alabama St., #240 UT-Martin, #233 Ga. Southern and #313 Cal St. Bakersfield. Those teams are sporting 1-9, 3-7, 8-3, 8-5 and 4-8 records, respectively, and four of the 24 total wins came over schools that are D-2 or NAIA.
The Seminoles have lost four games in a row both SU and ATS, including Saturday’s 103-95 loss vs. UMass in Sunrise (where the NHL’s Florida Panthers play) as 12.5-point favorites. Their current slide started in Tampa, where they were 1.5-point favorites vs. Texas A&M on Nov. 28.
The Aggies flew into the Sunshine State and raced out to a 19-3 lead and coasted from there. They led FSU 52-24 at halftime, led by as many as 38 points in the second half and won by a 95-59 score.
Luke Loucks’s squad went back home to host Georgia as a one-point favorite on Dec. 2. The Bulldogs led by as many as 40 points on their way to a 107-73 win. Twelve different UGA players scored and 11 played double-figure minutes.
FSU’s most respectable showing in recent weeks came next at Houston, where it lost 82-67 as a 13-point road underdog.
Dayton (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) doesn’t have any eye-opening wins, but it did prevail in overtime games at Marquette and vs. Georgetown down in Florida during Thanksgiving holidays. The Flyers don’t really have any shameful defeats, though.
They lost an 83-79 decision vs. BYU in Florida and fell 86-73 to Virginia on a neutral court in Charlotte. Anthony Grant’s team also lost at Cincinnati in early November.
However, UD is unbeaten in six home games with wins by margins of 40, 6, 9, 18, 17 and 23 points.
Dayton has scored 84 points or more five times in its 11 games and is averaging 79.8 points per game. That’s obviously not a blistering pace, but the Flyers haven’t played FSU yet.
The Seminoles have given up 95, 107, 82 and 103 points during their four-game losing streak, and the 82 points at Houston came when the Cougars had 80 points with 3:02 remaining but nursed clock the rest of the way.
FSU is ranked #282 nationally in scoring defense, giving up an average of 80.9 points per game despite holding cupcakes like Alabama St. to 62 and Cal-State Bakersfield to 59.
The ‘Noles are ranked #249 in field-goal percentage defense (44.8%) and #302 at defending the 3-point line (35.7%).
PREDICTIONS: More than anything here, we’re looking to fade FSU rather than back Dayton, and we’re going to do so aggressively tonight. Let’s risk 2.8 units to win 2.5 units on Dayton -6.5 (DraftKings at a -112 price for UD), 1.1 units to win one on UD -3.5 in the first half, 0.625 units to 0.5 on UD’s Team Total ‘over’ 39.5 points in the first half (‘over’ is a -125 price) and 0.55 units to win 0.5 on UD’s Team Total ‘over’ 83.5.