Zion Williamson heavy favorite in pre-draft Rookie of the Year odds

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The folks over at Caesar’s Palace have posted pre-draft NBA Rookie of the Year odds, and there’s some value to be had.

Of course, presumptive No. 1 pick Zion Williamson is the favorite at -450. He has college production, existing media attention and overall hype on his side ahead of the 2019-20 campaign.

But if you’re a big believer in Williamson, -450 isn’t going to keep you away. Given all the context we have, that’s more than a fair price at this stage.

Here’s the complete field:

  • Zion Williamson: -450
  • Ja Morant: +450
  • RJ Barrett: +450
  • Darius Garland: +1000
  • De’Andre Hunter: +1200
  • Jarrett Culver: +1500
  • Cam Reddish: +2500
  • Coby White: +3000
  • Jaxson Hayes: +3000
  • Rui Hachimura: +3500
  • Sekou Doumbouya: +3500
  • PJ Washington: +4000
  • Nassir Little: +4000
  • Mfiondu Kabengele: +5000
  • Tyler Herro: +5000
  • Keldon Johnson: +5000
  • Bruno Fernando: +5000
  • Nickeil Alexander-Walker: +6000
  • Bol Bol: +6000
  • Goga Bitadze: +7500
  • Kevin Porter Jr.: +7500
  • KZ Okpala: +7500
  • Field: +2000

Morant and Barrett are expected to round out the top three, and either could turn in impressive seasons. But among the other top picks, Darius Garland at +1000 represents the best value.

If Garland lands with Phoenix, he would immediately form one of the league’s best young backcourts with Devin Booker. Along with last year’s No. 1 pick DeAndre Ayton, that’s a core that could catch some attention.

Cam Reddish (+2500), Nassir Little (+4000), Tyler Herro (+5000) Bol Bol (+6000) and Nickeil Alexander Walker (+6000) might also be worth dart throws, but consider them longshots.

As far as longshots to avoid, look no further than Jaxon Hayes (+3000), Sekou Doumbouya (+5000) and Bruno Fernando (+5000). Hayes and Doumbouya are likely lottery picks and have bright futures, but neither is ready to contribute right away. Fernando is falling down draft boards and lacks the scoring and passing required to win this award.

One more longshot worth considering: The field (+2000). This isn’t for any other rookie in this class, but for Denver’s Michael Porter Jr., who was drafted last season but sat out the entire year with an injury.

Porter Jr. was once considered to be the top player in the 2018 draft class before hurting his back at Missouri. If he can regain his old form and stay healthy, he should be in the mix for Rookie of the Year. In recent years, both Blake Griffin and Ben Simmons have won this award the year after their draft season.

These odds are likely to shift slightly depending on landing spots in the NBA draft. The draft is slated for Thursday night at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.