We’ve got a series now.
Minnesota (58-37 straight up, 48-46-1 against the spread) had to have Saturday’s Game 3 vs. Oklahoma City in the Western Conference finals, and it became clear immediately that the Timberwolves weren’t going to be denied.
They raced out to a 34-14 lead in the first quarter, led by 31 points at halftime, by 37 points going into the fourth quarter and coasted to a 143-101 win as three-point home underdogs. The Thunder maintain a 2-1 advantage in the best-of-seven series going into Monday’s Game 4 at Target Center.
The 244 combined points soared ‘over’ the 216.5-point total to give the ‘over’ a 2-1 record in the series. The ‘over’ has cashed at a 4-1 clip for both teams in their last five outings.
Minnesota star guard Ant Edwards was the catalyst, producing 30 points, nine rebounds, six assists and two steals in 29:42 of playing time. He drained 12-of-17 field-goal attempts and 5-of-8 launches from 3-point range.
Julius Randle scored 24 points on 9-of-15 FGAs, while Terrence Shannon scored 15 points in only 13:12 of action. Four other Timberwolves were in double figures, including Nickeil Alexander-Walker (12), Leonard Miller (11), Naz Reid (10 and eight rebounds) and Jaden McDaniels (10).
Minnesota made 55-of-96 FGAs (57%), 20-of-40 from downtown (50%) and dominated the glass with a 50-31 rebounding advantage. The T’wolves had a 30/10 assists-to-turnovers ratio, while OKC dished out 20 assists compared to 14 turnovers.
In the losing effort, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Ajay Mitchell shared team-best scoring honors with 14 points apiece. SGA went 4-of-13 from the field, 2-of-5 from long distance and 4-of-4 from the free-throw line.
SGA’s 14-point effort was his lowest scoring output in OKC’s 14 postseason games to date. His four FTAs matched his lowest number of trips to the charity stripe as well, as he only shot four in Game 2 vs. Memphis in the first round.
As of early Sunday afternoon, most books had OKC (78-19 SU, 61-32-4 ATS) installed as a three or 3.5-point road favorite for Game 4. The total was 218.5 points, and the T’wolves were +135 to +140 on the money line.
For the adjusted series price, most spots had OKC as a -800 ‘chalk,’ leaving Minnesota at +550 on the comeback. However, FanDuel had vastly different numbers, listing OKC at -950, with the T’wolves available at +660 odds.
FanDuel’s series spread had OKC at -1.5 games at a -260 price and -2.5 games for a +114 return. The prices for Minnesota were +2.5 (-140), +1.5 (+205) and -1.5 (+1500 or 15/1).
Before Sunday’s Game 3 of the East finals at Indiana, FanDuel’s odds to win the NBA Finals had OKC as a -280 favorite. The Pacers were at +420 odds, followed by the T’wolves (11/1) and the Knicks (19/1).
SGA was a -270 ‘chalk’ at FanDuel to win NBA Finals MVP honors. The next-shortest odds belonged to Tyrese Haliburton (+550), Edwards (13/1), Jalen Brunson (22/1), Pascal Siakam (24/1) and OKC’s Jalen Williams (40/1).
Tip-off for Monday’s Game 4 is scheduled for 8:30 p.m. Eastern on ABC.