Edwards is taking Warriors +3 at Phoenix

Edwards is taking Warriors +3 at Phoenix

As of early Thursday morning, most books had Phoenix (45-38 straight up, 46-34-3 against the spread) installed as a 2.5 or three-point home favorite vs. Golden St. in Friday’s NBA Play-In Tournament. The winner will garner the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference and face the top-seeded Thunder in a best-of-seven series that’ll start Sunday in OKC.

The total was 218.5 or 219 points early Thursday, while the Warriors had +120 money-line odds at most spots.

Golden State (38-45 SU, 35-47-1 ATS) dodged elimination Wednesday by rallying past the L.A. Clippers for a 126-121 win as a 5.5-point road underdog thanks to heroic fourth-quarter efforts from Steph Curry, Draymond Green and Al Horford, who buried 4-of-4 attempts from 3-point land in the final stanza.

Curry scored a game-high 35 points, including a ridiculous stepback 3-pointer – over 7-foot Brook Lopez while fading out of bounds – to give his team a three-point lead with 50 seconds remaining. Meanwhile, Green put Kawhi Leonard on absolute lockdown at the defensive end in the final three minutes.

These teams met four times in the regular season. Steve Kerr’s squad prevailed 118-107 as an 11-point home favorite back on Nov. 4. Curry was the catalyst with a team-best 28 points.

When they met again on Dec. 18, Phoenix won a 99-98 decision as a two-point home underdog. Curry had an off shooting night, finishing with 15 points, nine rebounds and seven assists, while Horford wasn’t in uniform.

Golden St. beat the Suns 119-116 as a six-point home ‘chalk’ on Dec. 20. Curry was the catalyst with 28 points, 10 boards and six assists, while rookie Will Richard had 20 points and five boards.

Without Curry on Feb. 5, Kerr’s team won a 101-97 decision at Phoenix as a six-point road underdog with contributions from an array of role players. Gui Santos produced 18 points, seven assists and four rebounds, draining 3-of-6 attempts from downtown.

Pat Spencer, who had a ‘DNP’ last night along with Richard, scored 20 points to go with six rebounds, four assists and a pair of steals. De’Anthony Melton added 17 points, while Horford finished with 13 points, four boards, four assists and one blocked shot.

The ‘over’ has cashed at a 50-33 overall clip for the Warriors this season. This total for Friday matches their fifth-lowest total of the season, but it’s their lowest tally when Curry has been healthy.

The ‘over’ is on an 8-3 run for the Suns in their last 11 contests.

PREDICTIONS: I’m risking 1.1 units to win 1 unit on Golden St. +3. Let’s also risk 0.55 units to win 0.5 units on ‘over’ 218.5 points.