As of Thursday morning, most books had San Antonio (72-27 straight up, 55-42-2 against the spread) installed as a 3.5-point home favorite vs. Oklahoma City in tonight’s Game 6. The total was 219.5 points, while the Thunder had +135 money-line odds at most shops.

Oklahoma City (75-20 SU, 47-47-1 ATS) took a 3-2 series lead in the Western Conference finals with Tuesday’s 127-114 win as a 3.5-point home ‘chalk.’ The 241 combined points soared ‘over’ the 217.5-point tally.

NBA Most Valuable Player Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the way with 32 points, nine assists and a pair of steals. Alex Caruso continued his stellar play with 22 points, six assists and three steals, as he drained 4-of-8 launches from downtown and all eight of his free-throw attempts.

Jared McCain finished with 20 points for the winners, while Chet Holmgren had 16 points and 11 rebounds. Isaiah Hartenstein also had a double-double with 12 points, 15 boards and four assists.

Stephon Castle scored a team-best 24 points in the losing effort. The UConn product also had six assists, five rebounds and three steals. Julian Champagnie had 22 points, eight rebounds and three steals, and Victor Wembanyama finished with 20 points, six boards, three blocked shots and two steals.

‘Wemby’ made all 12 of his free throws, but he went 4-of-15 from the field and missed all five of his 3-point attempts. Keldon Johnson was also in double figures with 15 points.

Pick #1: Let’s risk 1.65 units to win 1.5 units on ‘over’ 219.5 points. 

The ‘over’ is on an 18-5 run for Oklahoma City in its last 23 games. The Thunder have had at least 225 combined points or more in seven of their last eight contests, and they’ve had at least 224 combined points in 20 of their last 25 games.

The ‘over’ has cashed at a 9-1 clip for the Spurs in their last 10 games. All nine of those ‘overs’ have had at least 223 combined points.

Finally, seven of 10 head-to-head meetings between these teams this season have netted at least 220 combined points.

Pick #2: Let’s risk 1.15 units to win 1 unit on Alex Caruso’s player prop for points to go ‘over’ 9.5 points (-115 price). 

Caruso has gone ‘over’ his player prop for points scored in five of Oklahoma City’s last six games. In the first five games of the Western finals to date, Caruso has produced scoring outputs of 31, 17, 15, 0 and 22 points.

Despite going scoreless in Game 4, the Texas A&M product is still averaging 17.0 points per game in the series. With Ajay Mitchell ‘out’ and Jalen Williams (extremely) ‘questionable,’ Caruso should get more minutes and shots.

In OKC’s postseason run last year, Caruso scored in double figures 12 times, including a pair of 20-point efforts against Indiana in the NBA Finals.