Toronto and Milwaukee’s clash in the Eastern Conference Finals is the matchup many have forecasted for months, but those two franchises took very different paths to get here.
Milwaukee was the best team in the NBA all season long, and have dominated the first two rounds of the postseason. The Bucks dispatched Detroit and Boston in nine total games, going 4-0 on the road.
Meanwhile, Toronto needed five games to get past Orlando and a full seven games — plus a buzzer beater — to best Philadelphia. Kawhi Leonard is already in the conversation for the best player in the world, and getting the Raptors to the NBA Finals would be an excellent addition to his résumé.
Breaking down the superstars
While basketball is a team game, playoff basketball does have a tendency to come down to a few possessions at the end of a game. In that regard, this matchup will be about Leonard vs Giannis Antetokounmpo, who could be the league’s MVP for the 2018-19 season.
Antetokounmpo had the more dominating regular season, averaging 27.7 points, 12.5 rebounds and 5.9 assists per game while also playing suffocating defense. And while Milwaukee hasn’t required it, his numbers — and efficiency — has dipped in the postseason.
Meanwhile, Leonard is coming off a regular season filled with “load management” DNPs and looks to be playing the best basketball of his career. For a former Finals MVP, that’s saying a lot.
These are arguably the two best defenders in the NBA right now (apologies to Rudy Gobert), and will likely be the highest scorers in the Eastern Conference Finals. That’s an exciting combination for NBA fans heading into this series.
Supporting cast
While there may not be much to separate Leonard from Antetokounmpo, it gets easier when you glance down the rosters. Milwaukee’s lineup appears to be much deeper, featuring a bench that includes Malcolm Brogdon, Pat Connaughton, Ersan Ilyasova and George Hill. That second unit gives Milwaukee plenty of shooting to space the floor when Toronto’s defense tightens up.
Toronto’s second unit leaves more to be desired. The Raptors only played eight players in Game 7 vs Philadelphia, and that’s a trend that will likely continue vs Milwaukee. Serge Ibaka and Danny Green have played in big games before, but they don’t offer much in the way of ball handling. Fred VanVleet hasn’t been the same this postseason, shooting only 27.6 percent through 12 playoff games.
As for the rest of the starting lineups, the potential matchups are fascinating. Does Antetokounmpo guard Leonard or versatile forward Pascal Siakam? What happens when the Bucks go small and Marc Gasol is on the floor for Toronto? In the back court, can Kyle Lowry best Brogdon or Eric Bledsoe? When that duo is rolling for Milwaukee, the Bucks are almost impossible to defeat.
Series price
The folks at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook have Milwaukee (-300) as a healthy favorite over Toronto (+240) for the series. (The -330 price you see in Jeff Sherman’s tweet below was slightly adjusted over the past 48 hours.)
The Bucks will have home court and should be more well-rested than Toronto coming off that grueling seven-game series with Philadelphia. Milwaukee also dominated its head-to-head matchups with the Raptors this season, going 3-1 while posting a +7.1 net rating in those games.
Still, it’s tough to see value in taking the Bucks at that price. It’s worth noting Leonard didn’t play in one of those losses to Milwaukee, and was ineffective in another. If he continues like he has through the first two rounds of the playoffs, Toronto will have a shot.
Trends to know
- Toronto is 37-44-1 ATS this season (43-50-1 including playoffs).
Despite earning the No. 2 seed in the East, the Raptors posted one of the worst ATS records in the NBA this season. Their cover rate has improved slightly this postseason, going 6-6 so far. With Leonard missing 22 games, it’s possible Vegas had trouble getting a read on the Raptors.
With that said, Toronto thrived as a road underdog this season — albeit in a smaller sample size. The Raptors went 10-6 ATS in those situations, and 9-7 straight up. The Raptors are 6.5-point underdogs in Game 1 and will likely be getting points in all games at Milwaukee.
- Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS in these playoffs.
Not only have the Bucks rolled through the first two rounds, they completely dominated above expectations. Excusing a Game 1 home loss to Boston, the Bucks have covered in every playoff game to date. The next-best ATS record this postseason is Philadelphia at 8-4, and they’re the only remaining playoff team to cover more than 50 percent of the time (Portland and Toronto are both 6-6 ATS this postseason).
- Toronto wins at home, but doesn’t cover.
The Raptors posted one of the best home records in the NBA this season at 32-9. But despite the straight-up success, Toronto covered just 43.9 percent (18-23) of its home games this year. Surprisingly, the lack of ATS success comes with one of the highest margins of victory (8.4 points per game including playoffs) of any NBA team.
Schedule
Game 1: Wednesday, May 15 at 7:30 p.m.
Game 2: Friday, May 17 at 7:30 p.m.
Game 3: Sunday, May 19 at 6 p.m.
Game 4: Tuesday, May 21 at 7:30 p.m.
Game 5: Thursday, May 23 at 7:30 p.m. (If necessary)
Game 6: Saturday, May 25 at 7:30 p.m. (If necessary)
Game 7: Monday, May 27 at 7:30 p.m. (If necessary)