The first-quarter trends came back to bite us last night, but don’t be afraid to go back after it on Wednesday’s two-game NBA card. The Raptors and Nuggets both dominated in crucial Game 5s at home on Tuesday, and now the Bucks have a chance to close out the Celtics. The later game will pit Houston and Golden State in a critical Game 5 at Oracle Arena. (All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook).
Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics: BOS +3 1Q (-114)
Boston hasn’t shown me anything since Game 1 that indicates it’s capable of putting together a complete performance. Milwaukee has dominated the third quarters in winning the past three games. However, the Celtics have been damn good coming out of the gates. They’re 4-0 straight up in the first quarter during this series, holding leads of at least five points at the end of each 1Q and winning the period by 27 combined points through the four games.
We rode this trend in Game 4, and it paid off, but we also don’t need to fade it on the road. Boston won the 1Q by nine points in Game 1 at Milwaukee, and even won by five points in Game 2 — which it went on to lose, 123-102. The point here is the Celtics could get blown out in this game, but it doesn’t mean they’re not capable of putting together a solid start. Boston will be the more desperate team, and almost certainly will come out with some adjustments after losing three straight games in almost identical fashion (although I thought we’d see adjustments in Game 4, and we didn’t). Getting three points here is welcomed, as the spread for the game has already shrunk from 9.5 to 8.5.
Golden State Warriors vs. Houston Rockets: GSW -2.5 1Q (-106)
Here’s another trend in which one team’s covered the 1Q spread in all four games of the series, and we have another very reasonable line tonight. The Warriors cashed in the 1Q of both games at Houston, winning the stanza by three in Game 4 and one in Game 3. This was a spot Golden State dominated in the first two games in Oakland, winning the 1Q by nine points in both Games 1 and 2.
This trend goes back further than this series for both teams. The Warriors are 9-2 ATS in the first quarter of their last 11 outings, while the Rockets have failed to cover a 1Q spread in their last seven games. This should be a smash spot for a highly motivated team to come out aggressive after a pair of disappointing road losses.
Julian’s pick records at MajorWager:
NBA: 3-6
NFL Draft: 6-1