Todays Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Yankees at Red Sox Matchup Prediction for Today

As the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees gear up for their American League East showdown on July 28, 2024, all eyes will be on Fenway Park. This game marks the third in the series between these two storied rivals, with each team looking to gain an edge in the standings. The Yankees, having a stellar season at 61-45, are currently in a better position than the Red Sox, who hold a respectable 55-48 record., The Red Sox will send Tanner Houck to the mound. Houck has been one of the better pitchers in the league this season, ranking 28th according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. With an 8-6 record and an impressive 2.71 ERA, Houck has been a reliable arm for Boston. However, his 3.24 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit lucky so far. Houck’s high groundball rate (55%) could be a key factor against the power-heavy Yankees lineup, which ranks 2nd in the league with 149 home runs. Additionally, Houck’s low walk rate (5.7%) might help neutralize the Yankees’ patient approach at the plate, as they lead MLB in walks., The Yankees will counter with Carlos Rodon, who has had an up-and-down season. Rodon holds a 10-7 record with a 4.42 ERA. Interestingly, his 3.82 SIERA indicates that he may have been unlucky and could perform better moving forward. Rodon projects to strike out 6.7 batters on average today, which is a positive sign against the Red Sox’s potent offense that ranks 4th in MLB. However, Rodon’s tendency to allow walks and hits could prove costly against Boston’s lineup, which ranks 4th in team batting average and 7th in home runs., Both teams are expected to put up runs, as reflected by the game total set at 9.5. The Red Sox and Yankees each have high implied team totals of 4.75 runs. Boston’s bullpen, ranked 26th, could struggle to hold off a Yankees lineup led by the red-hot Aaron Judge, who boasts a 0.429 batting average and 1.505 OPS over the last week. On the other hand, the Yankees’ bullpen ranks 19th, providing a potential edge in the late innings., With both teams having equal moneyline odds at -110, this matchup is expected to be a nail-biter. Given Houck’s ability to keep the ball on the ground and the Red Sox’s strong offensive metrics, Boston might have a slight edge in what promises to be an exciting game.

Sunday Series Game 3 Prediction Explination for Yankees vs Red Sox Matchup

Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Carlos Rodon (41.9% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in Boston’s projected batting order., Carlos Rodon – Over/Under 7.5 Strikeouts (+110/-145), Anthony Volpe is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year., Anthony Volpe – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-260/+195), Gleyber Torres has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 3rd-shallowest RF fences today., Gleyber Torres – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+145/-185), Tanner Houck’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (69.9% compared to 60.5% last year) figures to work in his favor considering they are generally much more effective than fastballs., Tanner Houck – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-160/+125), Rafael Devers has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.9-mph average over the last 14 days to his seasonal 94.3-mph EV., Rafael Devers – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-175/+135), The Boston Red Sox have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler O’Neill, Romy Gonzalez, Connor Wong)., The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Over in 32 of their last 55 games (+9.80 Units / 16% ROI), Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120), The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 50 games (+16.05 Units / 29% ROI), Over/Under 9.5 Game Total (+100/-120), Juan Soto has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 12 games (+10.00 Units / 83% ROI), Juan Soto – Over/Under 0.5 Home Runs (+560/-1000)

This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering., The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher., This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance., A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts., Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it., Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts