Todays Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Pirates at D-Backs Matchup Prediction for Today

As the Arizona Diamondbacks prepare to host the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 28, 2024, at Chase Field, both teams find themselves in the thick of the National League standings. The Diamondbacks, currently boasting a 55-50 record, are having an above-average season and are looking to solidify their playoff positioning. Meanwhile, the Pirates, with a 52-52 record, are hovering around the .500 mark and aiming to gain some momentum., In this third game of the series, Arizona will send Yilber Diaz to the mound. Diaz, a right-handed pitcher, has struggled this season with a 5.40 ERA over three starts. However, his peripheral stats suggest some bad luck, with a 4.80 xERA indicating potential for better performance. Diaz’s low strikeout rate (10.9 K%) could play to his advantage against a Pirates lineup that ranks 5th in strikeouts. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, forecasts Diaz to pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 2.3 earned runs, which aligns with his season averages., Opposing Diaz will be Mitch Keller for the Pirates. Keller has been a bright spot for Pittsburgh, posting a 10-5 record with a stellar 3.34 ERA over 20 starts. However, his 4.06 xFIP suggests he might have been a bit fortunate this season. Keller projects to pitch 5.5 innings, allowing 3.2 earned runs, which is below his season standard but still respectable., Offensively, the Diamondbacks hold a significant edge. Ranked 9th in MLB by Power Rankings, Arizona’s lineup is highlighted by Ketel Marte, who has been on fire over the last week, hitting .364 with 4 home runs and an impressive 1.362 OPS. On the other hand, the Pirates’ offense ranks 27th, with Rowdy Tellez being a recent bright spot, hitting .357 with a 1.080 OPS over the past week., Both teams boast strong bullpens, with Arizona ranked 6th and Pittsburgh 8th by Power Rankings. This game is expected to be closely contested, as indicated by the betting markets, with the Pirates slightly favored at -120. The Diamondbacks’ moneyline sits at +100, giving them an implied win probability of 48%.

Sunday Series Game 3 Prediction Explination for Pirates vs D-Backs Matchup

Mitch Keller has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 4.9 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than the average starting pitcher., Mitch Keller – Over/Under 18.5 Pitching Outs (+145/-185), Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (16.1) provides evidence that Michael A. Taylor has had some very poor luck this year with his 6.0 actual HR/600., Michael A. Taylor – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-120/-110), The Pittsburgh Pirates have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Oneil Cruz, Joey Bart, Michael A. Taylor)., With 6 hitters of the same handedness in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Yilber Diaz figures to benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing., Yilber Diaz – Over/Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-125/-105), In the past week’s worth of games, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.9% down to 0%., Lourdes Gurriel Jr. – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+120/-155), According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Arizona Diamondbacks’ bullpen ranks as the 7th-best out of all major league teams., Arizona Diamondbacks – 2H Moneyline, The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games at home (+11.50 Units / 45% ROI), Over/Under 8.5 Game Total (-110/-110), The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 55 of their last 94 games (+11.35 Units / 10% ROI), Pittsburgh Pirates – Over/Under Team Total, Joc Pederson has hit the Runs Under in 33 of his last 48 games (+11.85 Units / 17% ROI), Joc Pederson – Over/Under 0.5 Runs (+120/-155)

Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs., xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player’s home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can., Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts , Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day., Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power., Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs.