Yankees @ Rays 2025 WorldSeries Matchup Details

Positives for the New York Yankees World Game Today

Jake Fraley is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

Tropicana Field ranks as the #7 park in MLB for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Tropicana Field roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 10° hotter than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for offense.

Jake Fraley will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Gil in today’s game.

Jake Fraley pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Ben Rice projects as the 13th-best hitter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ben Rice is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Ben Rice is likely to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP.

Ben Rice pulls many of his flyballs (37.9% — 94th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randal Grichuk in the 83rd percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Tropicana Field grades out as the #7 ballpark in the league for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Hitting from the opposite that Steven Matz throws from, Randal Grichuk will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

In terms of his home runs, Randal Grichuk has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His 18.3 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 29.4.

Chandler Simpson is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

Chandler Simpson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Gil in today’s game.

Chandler Simpson has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Extreme groundball hitters like Chandler Simpson tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Luis Gil.

Out of every team in action today, the 2nd-worst infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

Randal Grichuk has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .226 rate is quite a bit lower than his .263 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 8th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yandy Diaz is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (44.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Bats such as Yandy Diaz with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Luis Gil who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Ryan McMahon has a good chance to have an advantage against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays has just 1 same-handed RP.

Ranked in the 96th percentile, Ryan McMahon has one of the highest average exit velocities in the league since the start of last season (93.1-mph).

Taylor Walls has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Out of all the teams today, the 5th-weakest outfield defense is that of the New York Yankees.

Taylor Walls will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

As it relates to his batting average, Taylor Walls has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .218 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .234.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Aaron Judge is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

Aaron Judge will have the handedness advantage over Steven Matz in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Amed Rosario in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Amed Rosario has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Amed Rosario will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Steven Matz in today’s matchup.

Giancarlo Stanton projects as the 5th-best home run hitter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Giancarlo Stanton is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Giancarlo Stanton will hold the platoon advantage over Steven Matz today.

Giancarlo Stanton pulls many of his flyballs (34.4% — 79th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his home run ability, Junior Caminero ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Junior Caminero is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Junior Caminero pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.6% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Cody Bellinger is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.

The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Cody Bellinger has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Cody Bellinger pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.9% — 82nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Junior Caminero ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ben Williamson has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Extreme groundball bats like Ben Williamson tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Luis Gil.

Ben Williamson will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The New York Yankees have 5 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Austin Wells, Jose Caballero, Ryan McMahon).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Tropicana Field as the 7th-best ballpark in baseball for strikeouts.

Home field advantage generally improves pitcher stats across the board, and Steven Matz will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Steven Matz has been unlucky in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, putting up a 7.09 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.40 — a 0.31 K/9 difference.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 5th-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward,Austin Wells, the Yankees’s expected catcher in today’s game, grades out as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Tropicana Field profiles as the #28 ballpark in the game for BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Out of all starters, Luis Gil’s fastball velocity of 94.7 mph is in the 76th percentile since the start of last season.

Luis Gil’s 2468-rpm fastball spin rate since the start of last season ranks in the 89th percentile among all starting pitchers.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Luis Gil throws from, Jonathan Aranda will have the upper hand today.

Jonathan Aranda pulls many of his flyballs (34.3% — 78th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Nick Fortes pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Nick Fortes will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Taylor Walls is in the 95th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (20% rate since the start of last season).

The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Austin Wells stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Austin Wells has exhibited some good exit velocity metrics of late, averaging 103.1-mph on his flyballs in the last week’s worth of games.

The 2nd-best projected lineup of all teams on the slate in terms of overall batting ability is that of the New York Yankees.

Given the 1.07 gap between Steven Matz’s 3.18 ERA and his 4.25 estimated true talent ERA (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB since the start of last season and ought to see worse results in the future.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Williamson in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Hitting from the opposite that Steven Matz throws from, Jose Caballero will have an edge in today’s game.

Jose Caballero pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.6% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Jose Caballero has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 92.7-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 88.3-mph.

Yandy Diaz projects as the 18th-best hitter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Luis Gil has experienced some negative variance in regards to his strikeouts since the start of last season, compiling a 6.47 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.30 — a 1.83 K/9 discrepancy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Randal Grichuk’s 12% Barrel% (a reliable metric to assess power) is in the 77th percentile since the start of last season.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Giancarlo Stanton ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson as the 4th-best batter in baseball when assessing his batting average ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Wells in the 81st percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Ranked in the 81st percentile, Amed Rosario has one of the highest average exit velocities in the league since the start of last season (91-mph).

Negatives with the Tampa Bay Rays World Game Today

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Jake Fraley has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 35% of the time.

Ranked in the 15th percentile, Jake Fraley’s average exit velocity of 85.8 mph ranks among the lowest in Major League Baseball since the start of last season.

The #4 venue in the majors for suppressing base hits to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Tropicana Field.

Hitting from the same side that Steven Matz throws from, Ben Rice faces a tough challenge today.

Ben Rice will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Randal Grichuk is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

In today’s game, Randal Grichuk is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 9th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.3% rate (85th percentile).

Randal Grichuk will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

When assessing his home run talent, Chandler Simpson ranks in the 0th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Chandler Simpson’s average exit velocity has dropped off this year; his 84.1-mph EV last year has fallen to 80.1-mph.

Chandler Simpson’s launch angle this year (-2.7°) is significantly worse than his 0.6° angle last season.

By putting up a .000 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Chandler Simpson is ranked in the 0th percentile for power.

Tropicana Field profiles as the #28 stadium in MLB for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Checking in at the 13th percentile, Randal Grichuk sits with a .217 batting average since the start of last season.

Hitting from the same side that Luis Gil throws from, Yandy Diaz faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Yandy Diaz has been very fortunate when it comes to his home runs since the start of last season; his 23.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is significantly inflated relative to his 14.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ryan McMahon’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 12th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.

Hitting from the same side that Steven Matz throws from, Ryan McMahon meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Ryan McMahon hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Walls in the 13th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

Taylor Walls is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.

Based on Statcast data, Taylor Walls is in the 6th percentile for offensive ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .270.

Taylor Walls’s 3.2% Barrel% (an advanced metric to evaluate power) ranks in the 8th percentile since the start of last season.

Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Aaron Judge in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his batting average, Aaron Judge has been lucky since the start of last season. His .325 rate has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .287.

Amed Rosario hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Amed Rosario will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Amed Rosario has done a weak job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 3.4° figure is among the lowest in the league since the start of last season (7th percentile).

Giancarlo Stanton will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Giancarlo Stanton has struggled with his Barrel%; his 21.2% rate last year has decreased to 16% this year.

In terms of his batting average, Giancarlo Stanton has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season. His .287 BA has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .210.

Luis Gil will hold the platoon advantage over Junior Caminero in today’s game.

Junior Caminero’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 92.5-mph average last year has fallen to 89.6-mph.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Junior Caminero has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His .355 figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .334.

Grading out in the 12th percentile, Junior Caminero has put up a .259 BABIP since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 15th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Hitting from the same side that Steven Matz throws from, Cody Bellinger will be at a disadvantage in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Cody Bellinger in today’s matchup.

Cody Bellinger’s average exit velocity has dropped off this season; his 88.2-mph EV last season has dropped off to 86.1-mph.

When assessing his home run ability, Ben Williamson ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ben Williamson is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

18% of the time that Ben Williamson has started against a righty on the mound since the start of last season, he has been pinch hit for.

Luis Gil will have the handedness advantage against Ben Williamson in today’s matchup.

Ben Williamson has been cold recently, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Steven Matz to throw 84 pitches today (8th-least of all pitchers on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

In his last start, Steven Matz struggled when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to tally 2 Ks.

The 5th-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Tropicana Field.

Considering that flyball hitters hold a significant edge over groundball pitchers, Luis Gil and his 40.6% underlying GB% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a hard position in today’s game being matched up with 3 opposing GB hitters.

Luis Gil will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Jonathan Aranda’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 94.2-mph average last year has fallen to 91.1-mph.

This season, there has been a decline in Jonathan Aranda’s speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 25.89 ft/sec last year to 23.39 ft/sec currently.

Jonathan Aranda has had some very good luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .308 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .290 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Fortes in the 1st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

Nick Fortes is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

16% of the time that Nick Fortes has started against a northpaw since the start of last season, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Luis Gil will have the handedness advantage over Nick Fortes today.

Amed Rosario has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 23.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly inflated relative to his 18.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.6) provides evidence that Cody Bellinger has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 25.7 actual HR/600.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Taylor Walls ranks in the 18th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Taylor Walls has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 7.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is quite a bit higher than his 4.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Aaron Judge has experienced some positive variance since the start of last season. His .456 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .423.

Austin Wells’s BABIP ability is projected in the 7th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Austin Wells is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the same side that Steven Matz throws from, Austin Wells will be in a tough position in today’s game.

Austin Wells will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Chandler Simpson’s 0% Barrel% (an advanced metric to study power) is in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.

The New York Yankees have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in the majors since the start of last season, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in the future,With a 3.51 FIP since the start of last season (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that is concerned with the things a pitcher can most influence), Steven Matz ranks in the 78th percentile.

Placing in the 92nd percentile, Steven Matz has recorded a 5.29 K/BB rate since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Caballero in the 17th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Jose Caballero is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

Jose Caballero will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Jose Caballero has been cold of late, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) over the past two weeks.

The Tampa Bay Rays (19.2 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy set of batters on the slate.

Grading out in the 25th percentile, Luis Gil put up an 8.7% Swinging Strike percentage since the start of last season.

Ryan McMahon will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Ryan McMahon has been cold of late, notching a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to study power) in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Randal Grichuk in the 17th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Giancarlo Stanton has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .396 figure is a good deal higher than his .324 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Jose Caballero is in the 16th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 10.100.

Ranking in the 21st percentile, Jose Caballero sits with a .293 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Nick Fortes ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Nick Fortes’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 81.6-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 79.3-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

As it relates to plate discipline, Austin Wells’s ability is quite bad, posting a 3.75 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 20th percentile.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.337) provides evidence that Yandy Diaz has been lucky since the start of last season with his .371 actual wOBA.

When assessing his home run skill, Amed Rosario ranks in the 21st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

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