Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Minnesota at New York Matchup Today

Carlos Santana is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

The switch-hitting Carlos Santana will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side (0) today against Jose Quintana.

Carlos Santana pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.3% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 3rd-worst among every team playing today.

Over the last week, Carlos Santana’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 7.1% up to 23.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 89th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Batting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Ryan Jeffers will have an edge in today’s game.

Ryan Jeffers pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Ryan Jeffers has recorded a .336 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, checking in at the 76th percentile.

In notching a .338 Isolated Power (ISO) this year, Ryan Jeffers is positioned in the 89th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Pete Alonso ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Pete Alonso is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Pete Alonso pulls many of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Pete Alonso will hold that advantage today.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Pete Alonso’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.7-mph over the course of the season to 96.5-mph recently.

Brooks Lee pulls many of his flyballs (34.8% — 86th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Brooks Lee’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls recently (25.9° in the past 14 days) is a significant increase over his 20.1° seasonal figure.

A consistent launch angle is a proxy for good hitting, and Brooks Lee has been very consistent with his of late, compiling a 36.2° launch angle standard deviation in the past two weeks.

Jeff McNeil has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the batting order today.

Jeff McNeil will have the handedness advantage against Simeon Woods Richard in today’s game.

Jeff McNeil hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s shallowest CF fences today.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Jeff McNeil will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In the past week, Jeff McNeil’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 2.6% up to 16.7%.

It may be smart to expect negative regression for the New York Mets offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the luckiest offense in the league this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citi Field as the worst field in the game for batting average.

Simeon Woods Richardson turned in a great performance in his last GS and allowed 0 ER.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 91st percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Royce Lewis is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Royce Lewis will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Royce Lewis pulls many of his flyballs (37% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

When it comes to his home run skill, Mark Vientos ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Mark Vientos hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Mark Vientos will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Mark Vientos has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 10.7% rate last year to 16.9% this year.

Mark Vientos has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 16.9% seasonal rate to 27.3% in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.D. Martinez in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

J.D. Martinez is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and J.D. Martinez will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Over the past 7 days, J.D. Martinez’s 52.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 46.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manuel Margot in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Manuel Margot is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Manuel Margot will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Manuel Margot hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.6% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the game’s shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Byron Buxton ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Byron Buxton is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Byron Buxton will have an advantage in today’s game.

Byron Buxton pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as baseball’s 16th-best home run hitter.

Carlos Santana’s launch angle this season (16.2°) is quite a bit higher than his 12.5° angle last year.

Willi Castro’s BABIP ability is projected in the 80th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Willi Castro will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Jose Quintana today.

Willi Castro pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 4th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Compared to last season, Willi Castro has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 41.9% to 48.1% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citi Field as the 2nd-best venue in Major League Baseball for strikeouts.

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Simeon Woods Richardson must realize this, because he has relied on his secondary pitches a lot this year: 59.8% of the time, grading out in the 81st percentile.

Considering the 1.12 difference between Simeon Woods Richardson’s 3.27 ERA and his 4.39 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league this year and ought to negatively regress going forward.

Byron Buxton has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 11.6% seasonal rate to 25% over the last 7 days.

When assessing his home run talent, J.D. Martinez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Over the last week, J.D. Martinez’s 21.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.9%.

Royce Lewis has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last year’s 93.6-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mark Vientos in the 75th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.323) may lead us to conclude that Manuel Margot has suffered from bad luck this year with his .278 actual wOBA.

Jose Quintana’s 90.1-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 6th percentile among all SPs.

Given the 1.09 deviation between Jose Quintana’s 4.02 ERA and his 5.11 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year and ought to perform worse the rest of the season.

With a 5.11 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that concentrates on the things a pitcher can most influence), Jose Quintana places him the 11th percentile.

As it relates to his home runs, Willi Castro has experienced some negative variance this year. His 10.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.8.

Using Statcast metrics, Willi Castro grades out in the 87th percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .349.

Willi Castro has put up a .335 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 75th percentile.

Jose Quintana will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his metrics across the board.

Jeff McNeil’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Monday player match stat slumps with Twins vs Mets Matchup

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Santana in the 1st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Citi Field profiles as the #30 field in baseball for overall right-handed offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Citi Field’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 3rd-best for pitching on the schedule today.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Carlos Santana today.

Ryan Jeffers has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (69% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

Citi Field profiles as the #21 venue in baseball for RHB home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ryan Jeffers will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Simeon Woods Richard will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Pete Alonso today.

Pete Alonso’s launch angle this season (14.6°) is a significant dropoff from his 17.9° figure last season.

As it relates to his home run skill, Brooks Lee ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brooks Lee is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card today.

When estimating his home run ability, Jeff McNeil ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The #1 venue in Major League Baseball for suppressing offensive stats to lefties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Citi Field.

Over the last 7 days, Jeff McNeil’s 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 39.7%.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Simeon Woods Richardson is projected to throw 84 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 7th-least of the day.

The New York Mets projected lineup profiles as the 5th-strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

Among all stadiums, Citi Field’s CF dimensions are the shallowest.

Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Simeon Woods Richardson in today’s matchup.

Out of all starting pitchers, Simeon Woods Richardson’s fastball spin rate of 2187 rpm ranks in the 16th percentile this year.

Royce Lewis will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Royce Lewis has been lucky in regards to his home runs since the start of last season; his 44.4 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably higher than his 33.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Mark Vientos is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Simeon Woods Richard will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mark Vientos today.

Citi Field profiles as the #30 field in the majors for righty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Batting from the same side that Simeon Woods Richard throws from, J.D. Martinez encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Over the last 7 days, J.D. Martinez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 15.8% down to 10.5%.

Manuel Margot will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Manuel Margot’s footspeed has decreased this year. His 28.29 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.59 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 19th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Byron Buxton in today’s matchup.

Byron Buxton’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (16.7°) is quite a bit lower than his 21.4° angle last season.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Carlos Santana has had positive variance on his side this year. His .333 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .307.

Willi Castro is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.

Willi Castro will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Brooks Lee will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Despite posting a .415 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Royce Lewis has had positive variance on his side given the .081 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .334.

This year, Manuel Margot’s flyball exit velocity (a reliable standard to assess power) is in the 21st percentile at 89.9 mph.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected batting order for the Minnesota Twins in today’s game owns an estimated true talent wOBA of .313, which is significantly lower than their actual wOBA of .324 this year.

It may be wise to expect weaker performance for the Minnesota Twins offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 6th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

Projected catcher Francisco Alvarez grades out as a good pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Grading out in the 11th percentile, Jose Quintana posted an 8.4% Swinging Strike% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citi Field as the 9th-worst venue in the league for LHB home runs.

As it relates to his home runs, Jeff McNeil has been very fortunate this year. His 15.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 9.6.

Citi Field profiles as the #30 park in MLB for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Using Statcast metrics, Jeff McNeil is in the 20th percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .284.