Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Detroit at Cincinnati Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-hottest weather on the schedule today at 84°.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 8.6-mph in this match-up, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for bats.

Tyler Stephenson has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Tyler Stephenson will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in the game when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Reese Olson today.

Hitting from the opposite that Carson Spiers throws from, Zach McKinstry will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the weakest out of all the teams playing today.

Zach McKinstry has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last season’s 88-mph average.

Jake Fraley is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.

Jake Fraley will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Reese Olson today.

Jake Fraley pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Noelvi Marte will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Placing in the 96th percentile, the hardest ball Noelvi Marte has hit since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.6 mph — an advanced indication of underlying power ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 81st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, Riley Greene is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Riley Greene is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the opposite that Carson Spiers throws from, Riley Greene will have an edge in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Vierling in the 83rd percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Matt Vierling is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.

Matt Vierling has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.2%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.6% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Jeimer Candelario will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Jake Rogers pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Jake Rogers has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 92.2-mph in the past week.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jonathan India ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jonathan India is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Jonathan India pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 82nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Spencer Steer is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today.

Spencer Steer pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Colt Keith is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 54% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Colt Keith will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carson Spiers today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Rogers in the 83rd percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

It may be best to expect improved performance for the Detroit Tigers offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 6th-unluckiest offense in MLB this year.

Gio Urshela’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Gio Urshela has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Noelvi Marte in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Wenceel Perez is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

Wenceel Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.2% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Wenceel Perez’s launch angle recently (21° in the past week’s worth of games) is considerably better than his 17.6° seasonal figure.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Mark Canha ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Mark Canha is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Zach McKinstry’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (29.2°) is a significant increase over his 13.6° figure last season.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s judgement, Reese Olson’s overall pitching ability ranks in the 83rd percentile among all starting pitchers in baseball right now.

Reese Olson has averaged 94.1 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, checking in at the 87th percentile.

Jake Rogers, the Tigers’s expected catcher in today’s game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Cincinnati’s 87.6-mph average exit velocity this year is among the worst in MLB: #30 overall.

Colt Keith’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better of late, rising from 18.5% on the season to 23.3% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Riley Greene in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Gio Urshela has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .259 rate is deflated compared to his .304 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Matt Vierling has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, improving his 10.3% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week’s worth of games.

With a 1.85 K/BB rate this year, Mark Canha has shown impressive plate discipline, placing in the 82nd percentile.

Friday player match stat slumps with Tigers vs Reds Matchup

Tyler Stephenson is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Reese Olson throws from, Tyler Stephenson has a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Tyler Stephenson’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, decreasing from 48.3% to 40%.

Tyler Stephenson has compiled a .261 BABIP this year, grading out in the 22nd percentile.

In today’s game, Elly De La Cruz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.2% rate (80th percentile).

Elly De La Cruz’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 94.1-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 87.4-mph over the last 7 days.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.332) may lead us to conclude that Elly De La Cruz has been very fortunate this year with his .353 actual wOBA.

Zach McKinstry is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

This year, Zach McKinstry has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 22% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

Zach McKinstry hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 97th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Zach McKinstry in today’s game.

Zach McKinstry has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 7.7% rate last year has fallen to 2.2% this year.

Jake Fraley’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 83.6-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 80.4-mph over the past two weeks.

Jake Fraley’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off from last season to this one, falling from 46.2% to 39.9%.

Jake Fraley has had some very good luck with his batting average this year; his .268 rate is quite a bit higher than his .218 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Noelvi Marte is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the same side that Reese Olson throws from, Noelvi Marte will not have the upper hand today.

Noelvi Marte hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.

Noelvi Marte has been cold of late, compiling a 0% Barrel% (a reliable standard to study power) over the past 7 days.

Over the last week, Noelvi Marte’s swing has not been well optimized for home runs, hitting a mere 0% of his balls with a launch angle in the optimal range of 23° to 34°.

Last season, Tyler Stephenson had a launch angle of 13.7° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this year he experienced a significant decline to just 9.9°.

Riley Greene hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 84th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Riley Greene will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Riley Greene has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 13.1% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% over the past 7 days.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.8°, Riley Greene has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (5.3°) over the last 14 days.

Riley Greene’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last year to this one, going from 50.4% to 45.3%.

Carson Spiers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matt Vierling today.

Matt Vierling will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

When it comes to plate discipline, Matt Vierling’s skill is quite weak, posting a 4.9 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 7th percentile.

Jeimer Candelario’s average exit velocity has decreased recently; his 86.8-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 83.6-mph in the past 14 days.

Jeimer Candelario has had some very good luck with his home runs this year; his 28.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a fair amount higher than his 24.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Posting a 3.76 K/BB rate this year, Jeimer Candelario has demonstrated weak plate discipline, placing in the 20th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Rogers in the 9th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Jake Rogers is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.

Jake Rogers has been pulled from the game early 11% of the time when starting against a northpaw this year.

Hitting from the same side that Carson Spiers throws from, Jake Rogers will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Jake Rogers will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Reese Olson throws from, Jonathan India faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

Jonathan India’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 92.4-mph EV last year has lowered to 86.8-mph.

Despite posting a .349 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jonathan India has had some very good luck given the .021 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .328.

In terms of power, Jonathan India finds himself in the 14th percentile, having averaged 8.1 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Fraley in the 18th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

In terms of power, Jake Fraley grades out in the 2nd percentile, having hit 1.7 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year.

Reese Olson will hold the platoon advantage over Spencer Steer today.

Spencer Steer’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, falling from 18.6% to 15.2%.

This year, Colt Keith has been pulled from the game early in 20% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.

Colt Keith hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.1% — 77th percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Colt Keith today.

In the past week, Colt Keith’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.5% down to 0%.

Colt Keith’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 87.8-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 80.9-mph in the past week.

With a .269 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Jake Rogers is ranked in the 10th percentile for offensive ability.

Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics in all categories, and Carson Spiers will hold that advantage today.

The Detroit Tigers have done a poor job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 11.3° mark is among the lowest in MLB this year (#26 overall).

The maximum exit velocity of any player on the Detroit Tigers has been 112.1 mph this year, ranking them as the #30 group of hitters in baseball by this standard.

Gio Urshela is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Hitting from the same side that Carson Spiers throws from, Gio Urshela has a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gio Urshela in today’s matchup.

There has been a decrease in Gio Urshela’s average exit velocity this season, from 87.5 mph last year to 85.3 mph now, Gio Urshela’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 85.3-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 78.6-mph in the past 7 days.

When estimating his home run skill, Wenceel Perez ranks in the 18th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Wenceel Perez in today’s matchup.

Wenceel Perez has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph dropping to 85.4-mph in the past two weeks.

In the past two weeks, Wenceel Perez has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Grading out in the 9th percentile for power, Wenceel Perez has hit 6.7 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year.

Hitting from the same side that Carson Spiers throws from, Mark Canha will have a disadvantage today.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Mark Canha in today’s matchup.

Mark Canha has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph dropping to 85.1-mph in the past 7 days.

Mark Canha’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, going from 14.4% to 10.5%.

Over the past 14 days, Mark Canha’s 24.1% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 41.6%.

Jeimer Candelario has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .326 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .311 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The Cincinnati Reds have been the 8th-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games, Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Reese Olson in today’s matchup.

Positioned 2nd-highest in baseball this year, Cincinnati Reds hitters as a group have recorded a 16.2° launch angle on their highest exit velocity balls (an advanced standard to evaluate power skills).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gio Urshela in the 13th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Jake Fraley’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last season to this one, going from 16.9% to 13.7%.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 11°, Mark Canha has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (0.6°) over the past 14 days.