Todays Series Game 4 Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Colorado at Cincinnati Series Game 4 Matchup Today

When assessing his BABIP ability, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Elly De La Cruz is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.

The #7 park in the game for boosting batting average to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

Great American Ball Park has the 8th-shallowest left field dimensions among all major league parks.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 5th-hottest weather on the slate today at 82°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Tyler Stephenson is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

Great American Ball Park projects as the #3 ballpark in baseball for overall RHB offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Tyler Stephenson will have the handedness advantage against Austin Gomber today.

It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the Colorado Rockies offense going forward, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

Lance Barksdale grades out as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is expected to be behind the plate in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the best park in the league for home runs.

The 8th-shallowest right field dimensions among all parks are found in Great American Ball Park.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Jones in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Great American Ball Park profiles as the #3 ballpark in MLB for overall left-handed offense, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Batting from the opposite that Hunter Greene throws from, Nolan Jones will have an advantage in today’s game.

Nolan Jones has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Brenton Doyle’s BABIP ability is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brenton Doyle is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this game.

Brenton Doyle has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Spencer Steer is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Austin Gomber throws from, Spencer Steer will have the upper hand in today’s game.

Elias Diaz is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.

Great American Ball Park ranks as the #3 field in baseball for right-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Noelvi Marte will have the handedness advantage against Austin Gomber in today’s matchup.

Noelvi Marte will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Noelvi Marte’s maximum exit velocity (a reliable metric to measure power) has been 115.6 mph since the start of last season, placing in the 96th percentile.

Among all the teams on the slate today, the worst infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

Rece Hinds will have the handedness advantage over Austin Gomber today.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Rece Hinds will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Jeimer Candelario is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

The switch-hitting Jeimer Candelario will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Austin Gomber.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.1% — 96th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Jonathan India is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

Brendan Rodgers’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brendan Rodgers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.

Bats such as Brendan Rodgers with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Greene who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Batting from the opposite that Hunter Greene throws from, Sam Hilliard will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

Sam Hilliard is remarkably fast, ranking in the 90th percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.96 ft/sec since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Jones in the 81st percentile when assessing his home run skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Great American Ball Park as the 3rd-best stadium in Major League Baseball for LHB home runs.

When assessing his BABIP ability, Austin Slater is projected as the 7th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Austin Slater will have the handedness advantage against Austin Gomber in today’s game.

Austin Slater has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.1%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Michael Toglia will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side against Hunter Greene in this game.

Ezequiel Tovar’s BABIP ability is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ezequiel Tovar is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Great American Ball Park as the 7th-best field in the league for left-handed batting average.

Hunter Greene projects as the 14th-best SP in the league currently when it comes to his strikeout skill, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Hunter Greene is projected to throw 100 pitches in this game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the most on the slate today.

The Colorado Rockies have 7 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jake Cave, Brenton Doyle, Ryan McMahon, Ezequiel Tovar, Nolan Jones, Sam Hilliard, Michael Toglia).

Hunter Greene was in good form in his last game started and posted 7 strikeouts.

Santiago Espinal will hold the platoon advantage over Austin Gomber in today’s matchup.

Santiago Espinal has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Santiago Espinal will hold that advantage today.

Because of his reverse platoon split, Austin Gomber will hold the advantage being matched up with 9 batters in the projected lineup who hit from the other side in this outing.

Over his previous 3 outings, Austin Gomber has generated a substantial jump in his fastball spin rate: from 2187 rpm over the whole season to 2248 rpm in recent games.

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Austin Gomber must realize this, because he has used his secondary offerings a lot this year: 58.6% of the time, ranking in the 75th percentile.

Austin Gomber has had some very poor luck with his strikeouts this year, putting up a 5.89 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.35 — a 1.45 K/9 disparity.

As it relates to his home run ability, Ryan McMahon ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ryan McMahon is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.

Ryan McMahon will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Greene in today’s matchup.

In his previous outing, Austin Gomber performed well and gave up 1 ER.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Austin Slater ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Brenton Doyle has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 10.3% seasonal rate to 26.5% over the past 14 days.

Ezequiel Tovar’s launch angle this season (19.3°) is considerably better than his 12.3° figure last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan McMahon in the 79th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

As it relates to his home run skill, Michael Toglia ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 82nd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.

Thursday Series Game 4 player match stat slumps with Rockies vs Reds Matchup

The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will be at a disadvantage batting from his worse side (0) today against Austin Gomber, Among all the teams playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Colorado Rockies.

Elly De La Cruz is an extreme groundball batter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Colorado (#2-best on the slate today).

Over the last 14 days, Elly De La Cruz’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 94.1 mph to 88 mph.

Despite posting a .350 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Elly De La Cruz has experienced some positive variance given the .022 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .328.

In the last two weeks, Tyler Stephenson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.8% down to 0%.

Tyler Stephenson’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 90.1-mph seasonal average has dropped to 83.2-mph over the last 7 days.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Tyler Stephenson’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.7%.

Sporting a .262 BABIP this year, Tyler Stephenson finds himself in the 22nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Hunter Greene in the 81st percentile when estimating his overall pitching talent level.

The worst projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall hitting skill is that of the the Colorado Rockies.

Hunter Greene will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats across the board.

In his last start, Hunter Greene was firing on all cylinders and conceded 0 ER.

Hunter Greene’s 97.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 99th percentile out of all SPs.

Nolan Jones is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nolan Jones today.

Nolan Jones has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 5.4% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last 7 days.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Nolan Jones’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 8.5%.

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Nolan Jones is in the 4th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .198.

Hunter Greene will have the handedness advantage over Brenton Doyle in today’s matchup.

Brenton Doyle will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brenton Doyle’s true offensive ability to be a .293, providing some evidence that he has been lucky this year given the .052 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .345 wOBA.

Placing in the 20th percentile, the hardest ball Spencer Steer has connected with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 108 mph — a reliable indication of underlying power skill.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.3) provides evidence that Spencer Steer has experienced some positive variance this year with his 22.3 actual HR/600.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Elias Diaz ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Hunter Greene will have the handedness advantage against Elias Diaz in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Elias Diaz in today’s game.

Elias Diaz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 91.2-mph average last year has lowered to 87.8-mph.

Over the past 14 days, Elias Diaz’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 87.8 mph to 80.4 mph.

Noelvi Marte is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

17% of the time that Noelvi Marte has started against a lefty hurler since the start of last season, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Noelvi Marte hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.2% — 80th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.

Noelvi Marte has been cold recently, notching a 79.8-mph average exit velocity in the past 7 days.

Compiling a -11.1° launch angle in the last week suggests that Noelvi Marte has been finding it challenging to lift the ball lately, which is a key component of hitting for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elias Diaz in the 16th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rece Hinds in the 4th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Rece Hinds is penciled in 8th in the lineup today.

In the past week’s worth of games, Jeimer Candelario’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.7% down to 0%.

Jeimer Candelario’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased lately, decreasing from 18.5% on the season to 4.8% in the last two weeks.

Jeimer Candelario has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 25.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly inflated relative to his 21.9 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ranked in the 16th percentile, Jeimer Candelario’s average exit velocity of 86.6 mph ranks among the lowest in MLB this year.

Jeimer Candelario has exhibited weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 20th percentile with a 3.79 K/BB rate.

10% of the time that Jonathan India has started against a lefty on the mound this year, he has been pulled from the game early.

Jonathan India has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph dropping to 82.7-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

Jonathan India’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 92.4-mph figure last season has decreased to 86.7-mph.

Jonathan India’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (7.8°) is significantly worse than his 12.6° angle last season.

Jonathan India has been lucky this year, notching a .343 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .326 — a .017 difference.

Batting from the same side that Hunter Greene throws from, Brendan Rodgers will have a disadvantage today.

Brendan Rodgers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences today.

Brendan Rodgers will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Brendan Rodgers’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 88.6-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 77.4-mph in the last two weeks.

Brendan Rodgers’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, going from 19.7% to 8.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sam Hilliard in the 4th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Sam Hilliard is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

16% of the time that Sam Hilliard has started against a northpaw since the start of last season, he has been pulled from the game early.

Sam Hilliard hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 11th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Sam Hilliard will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Nolan Jones has put up a .269 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 10th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Austin Slater has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

When starting against a left-handed pitcher this year, Austin Slater has been pinch hit for 60% of the time.

Austin Slater has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 11.9% rate last season has lowered to 3.3% this year.

Austin Slater’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 93.6-mph EV last season has dropped to 90.7-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Toglia in the 6th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Michael Toglia is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Michael Toglia today.

Michael Toglia’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 95.7-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 90.1-mph over the last 7 days.

Over the last week, Michael Toglia’s 8.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 19.2%.

Hitting from the same side that Hunter Greene throws from, Ezequiel Tovar has a tough challenge in today’s game.

Ezequiel Tovar will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Ezequiel Tovar has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 7.7% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 14 days.

Ezequiel Tovar’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased recently, falling from 44.8% on the season to 32.1% in the last two weeks.

Ezequiel Tovar has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .310 figure is a good deal higher than his .275 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hunter Greene’s slider percentage has dropped by 7% from last season to this one (40.5% to 33.5%) .

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rece Hinds in the 6th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

When it comes to his home run ability, Santiago Espinal ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Santiago Espinal is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this game.

When starting against a lefty on the mound this year, Santiago Espinal has been pulled from the game early 10% of the time.

Santiago Espinal’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 87.5-mph seasonal mark has dropped off to 84.6-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Playing on the road typically reduces pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Austin Gomber today.

Austin Gomber’s 89.8-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 3rd percentile out of all SPs.

Grading out in the 9th percentile, Austin Gomber posted an 8.2% Swinging Strike percentage this year.

Ryan McMahon will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Despite posting a .347 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ryan McMahon has had positive variance on his side given the .033 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .314.

The Cincinnati Reds have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better in the future, Sporting a .157 Isolated Power (ISO) since the start of last season, Austin Slater finds himself in the 9th percentile.

Elly De La Cruz’s launch angle of late (2.8° in the past 7 days) is a significant dropoff from his 9.9° seasonal figure.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Sam Hilliard ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ezequiel Tovar’s average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 88.1-mph seasonal average has decreased to 85.5-mph over the last two weeks.

Santiago Espinal’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off recently, decreasing from 13.8% on the season to 0% in the last week.

Michael Toglia has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 38.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably higher than his 30.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ryan McMahon’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (3.8° over the last two weeks) is a significant dropoff from his 9.6° seasonal mark.