Rockies @ D-Backs Series Game 4 Matchup Details

Positives for the Colorado Rockies Series Game 4 Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Fernandez in the 85th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

,The #3 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

,The Chase Field roof is expected to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up 10° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.

,Hitting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Jose Fernandez will have an edge in today’s matchup.

,Among every team today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Colorado Rockies.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s assessment, Jose Quintana’s overall pitching talent is in the 6th percentile out of all SPs in the game currently.

,Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Quintana today.

,Jose Quintana’s 89.9-mph fastball velocity since the start of last season grades out in the 6th percentile out of all starters.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ezequiel Tovar in the 77th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

,Chase Field profiles as the #3 field in the majors for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Chase Field sits at the 2nd-highest altitude among all major league parks. High elevation usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to higher offensive output.

,Ezequiel Tovar has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88-mph to 91.2-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

,T.J. Rumfield is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

,T.J. Rumfield will hold the platoon advantage against Ryne Nelson in today’s matchup.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so T.J. Rumfield can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

,Ildemaro Vargas is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.

,As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Ildemaro Vargas will get to bat from his good side against Jose Quintana today.

,Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Hitting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Nolan Arenado will have an edge today.

,Troy Johnston is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Troy Johnston will hold the platoon advantage against Ryne Nelson in today’s game.

,Troy Johnston is apt to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 97th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

,Hunter Goodman is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

,Posting a 29.100 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) since the start of last season , Hunter Goodman is ranked in the 86th percentile for power.

,Hunter Goodman has averaged 34.2 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 94th percentile for power.

,Ezequiel Tovar’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, increasing from 14.5% on the season to 23.1% in the last 7 days.

,Despite posting a .251 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ezequiel Tovar has had bad variance on his side given the .044 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .295.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Corbin Carroll in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,Corbin Carroll is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.

,The #3 field in the majors for boosting offensive stats to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

,Ketel Marte projects as the 15th-best batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Ketel Marte is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.

,The switch-hitting Ketel Marte will have the advantage of batting from from his better side (0) today against Jose Quintana.

,Ketel Marte will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,Chase Field profiles as the #3 venue in MLB for left-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Waldschmidt in the 78th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

,Batting from the opposite that Jose Quintana throws from, Ryan Waldschmidt will have an edge in today’s matchup.

,Jose Fernandez will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

,Gabriel Moreno will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jose Quintana in today’s matchup.

,Geraldo Perdomo is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.

,Tim Tawa will have the handedness advantage over Jose Quintana today.

,When estimating his overall offensive talent, Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Gabriel Moreno will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,Jake McCarthy is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today’s game, which would be an upgrade from his 80% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.

,Jake McCarthy will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryne Nelson in today’s matchup.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake McCarthy can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

,The Colorado Rockies projected offense projects as the worst of all teams on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

,Ryne Nelson is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.9% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #28 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chad Stevens in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

,Chad Stevens is notably fast, grading out in the 82nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.52 ft/sec since the start of last season.

,Ildemaro Vargas will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

,With a .346 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Ildemaro Vargas finds himself in the 76th percentile.

,The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corbin Carroll stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

,Batting from the opposite that Ryne Nelson throws from, Sterlin Thompson will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Sterlin Thompson can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Ryan Waldschmidt will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Ryan Waldschmidt has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 97.8-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal EV of 88-mph.

,In the last 14 days, Ryan Waldschmidt’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.3% up to 14.8%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

,Tyler Freeman is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.

,Geraldo Perdomo will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

,Geraldo Perdomo has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 90.9-mph average in the past week to his seasonal 86.9-mph EV.

,In notching a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) since the start of last season, Geraldo Perdomo grades out in the 85th percentile for offensive ability.

,Jose Quintana’s curveball percentage has jumped by 8% from last year to this one (22.3% to 30.3%) .

,Jose Quintana has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, posting a 4.54 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 6.01 — a 1.47 K/9 discrepancy.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 76th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

,Bats such as Tyler Freeman with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Ryne Nelson who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

,Sporting a 1.9 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Tyler Freeman has demonstrated favorable plate discipline, checking in at the 75th percentile.

,Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Over the past 7 days, Nolan Arenado’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.6-mph over the course of the season to 95.6-mph of late.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Karros in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Negatives with the Arizona Diamondbacks Series Game 4 Game Today

Jose Fernandez is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

,Chase Field has the 3rd-deepest CF dimensions in Major League Baseball.

,Chase Field has the 10th-tallest fences among all parks.

,Jose Fernandez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 87.3-mph seasonal average has fallen to 80.8-mph in the last week.

,In the last week’s worth of games, Jose Fernandez’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.3%.

,Chase Field projects as the #28 stadium in the league for home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Jose Quintana has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 8 opposite-handed bats in this game.

,In his last start, Jose Quintana was on point and conceded 2 ER.

,Ezequiel Tovar is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

,Ryne Nelson will have the handedness advantage against Ezequiel Tovar in today’s matchup.

,Typically, hitters like Ezequiel Tovar who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Ryne Nelson.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense projects as the 4th-best among every team on the slate today.

,Chase Field grades out as the #24 ballpark in the game for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,T.J. Rumfield pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.4% — 79th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for T.J. Rumfield in today’s matchup.

,T.J. Rumfield has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 85.8-mph dropping to 82.1-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ildemaro Vargas in the 7th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

,Ildemaro Vargas’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 89.3-mph seasonal average has dropped to 84.7-mph in the past 7 days.

,Ildemaro Vargas’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, going from 14% to 9.9%.

,Over the past 7 days, Ildemaro Vargas’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 9.9%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 6th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

,Despite posting a .356 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nolan Arenado has experienced some positive variance given the .053 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .303.

,Nolan Arenado has notched a .258 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 3rd percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,When estimating his home run ability, Troy Johnston ranks in the 16th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,When starting against a northpaw this year, Troy Johnston has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 10% of the time.

,Troy Johnston hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

,The #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for suppressing home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

,Batting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Hunter Goodman will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,Extreme flyball batters like Hunter Goodman tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryne Nelson.

,Hitting from the same side that Jose Quintana throws from, Corbin Carroll faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

,In today’s game, Corbin Carroll is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36.3% rate (87th percentile).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Corbin Carroll’s true offensive skill to be a .360, providing some evidence that he has been very fortunate this year given the .038 disparity between that figure and his actual .398 wOBA.

,Ketel Marte’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 15% to 9.9%.

,Jose Fernandez has been cold lately, posting a 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) over the last 14 days.

,Ryan Waldschmidt is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Karros in the 13th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

,Kyle Karros is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

,Ryne Nelson will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Karros in today’s matchup.

,Kyle Karros hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Fernandez in the 20th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

,Gabriel Moreno is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

,In today’s game, Gabriel Moreno is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39% rate (98th percentile).

,Ketel Marte has posted a .243 BABIP this year, grading out in the 16th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Geraldo Perdomo in the 22nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

,Compared to his seasonal figure of 12.1°, Geraldo Perdomo has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-4°) over the past two weeks.

,Geraldo Perdomo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off from last year to this one, decreasing from 20.2% to 10.5%.

,By putting up a .232 BABIP this year, Geraldo Perdomo is positioned in the 11th percentile.

,Ranking in the 8th percentile, Nolan Arenado has notched a .252 BABIP since the start of last season.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tim Tawa in the 17th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

,Tim Tawa is penciled in 8th in the lineup in this game.

,Tim Tawa hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 93rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

,Tim Tawa has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 9.6% rate last season has decreased to 2.5% this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake McCarthy in the 10th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

,This year, Jake McCarthy has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 33% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

,Jake McCarthy hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

,Jose Quintana has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 8.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average hurler.

,The Colorado Rockies have been the 6th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in the future,Ryne Nelson has posted a 5.16 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that concentrates on the variables most within a pitcher’s control) this year, grading out in the 17th percentile.

,Ryne Nelson has been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball on balls in play this year with a .232 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.

,Colorado has been the #1 team in baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle span that tends to best-produce base hits (48.4% rate this year).

,Chad Stevens is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Batting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Chad Stevens will be at a disadvantage in today’s game.

,Chad Stevens hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (37.9% — 75th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

,When estimating his home run skill, Ildemaro Vargas ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Sterlin Thompson is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.

,Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Sterlin Thompson in today’s game.

,Hitting from the same side that Ryne Nelson throws from, Tyler Freeman has a tough challenge today.

,Tyler Freeman has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

,Tyler Freeman will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

,Tyler Freeman’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this season; his 88.5-mph mark last year has fallen off to 85.3-mph.

,When estimating his home run talent, Geraldo Perdomo ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Jose Quintana in the 1st percentile when estimating his strikeout skill.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks (18.6 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-prone group of hitters on the slate.

,Chase Field ranks as the #27 field in the league for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jake McCarthy in today’s game.

,Jake McCarthy has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.6-mph dropping to 80.5-mph over the past two weeks.

,Troy Johnston will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

,Troy Johnston’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 90-mph seasonal average has decreased to 87.2-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

,Chad Stevens will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

,T.J. Rumfield’s BABIP skill is projected in the 24th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Hunter Goodman will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 14th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

,Sterlin Thompson is not very fast, ranking in the 4th percentile in Sprint Speed at 24.45 ft/sec this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chad Stevens in the 13th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

,Kyle Karros will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

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