Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Cincinnati at Milwaukee Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 88th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

The #8 park in the game for boosting home runs to left-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

American Family Field has the 5th-shortest fences in MLB.

Built 602 feet above sea level, American Family Field has the 8th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which often leads to more offense.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.1-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for batters.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, William Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

William Contreras is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks American Family Field as the 10th-best ballpark in MLB for right-handed base hits.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Ortiz in the 80th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

American Family Field projects as the #8 ballpark in MLB for right-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Cincinnati Reds infield defense profiles as the worst out of every team in action today.

T.J. Friedl is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles American Family Field as the 10th-best park in the majors for left-handed BABIP.

T.J. Friedl will hold the platoon advantage over Aaron Civale today.

Hitting from the opposite that Aaron Civale throws from, Jake Fraley will have an edge in today’s game.

In the last 7 days, Jeimer Candelario’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 8% up to 13.3%.

Jeimer Candelario has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 100.2-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal EV of 92-mph.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Spencer Steer ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Spencer Steer is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

American Family Field has the 6th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB.

It may be smart to expect weaker performance for the Milwaukee Brewers offense the rest of the season, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 2nd-luckiest offense in the league this year.

Carson Spiers has put up a 3.72 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that is concerned with the things a pitcher has the most control over) this year, checking in at the 76th percentile.

Carson Spiers has compiled a 4.26 K/BB rate this year, placing in the 86th percentile.

Carson Spiers has shown favorable control this year, putting up a 92nd percentile Walk% of 4.7%.

Brice Turang is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

Because of Carson Spiers’s large platoon split, Brice Turang will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

Joey Ortiz will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Chourio in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Jackson Chourio is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Batting from the opposite that Aaron Civale throws from, Will Benson will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Sal Frelick will hold the platoon advantage against Carson Spiers in today’s matchup… and even better, Spiers has a large platoon split.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Willy Adames is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Jonathan India is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today.

Garrett Mitchell’s BABIP talent is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Garrett Mitchell has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Noelvi Marte has made substantial gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 6.8% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 90th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

When estimating his home run talent, Will Benson ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Noelvi Marte has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.5-mph to 97.7-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the Cincinnati Reds offense in future games, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 10th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

Because of Carson Spiers’s large platoon split, Jake Bauers will have a massive advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in this game.

Jake Fraley has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 84.1-mph to 90.1-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

Will Benson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 81st percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

The Cincinnati Reds (24.7% K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-most strikeout-prone set of hitters of the day.

The #5 ballpark in the game for boosting strikeouts, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

Friday player match stat slumps with Reds vs Brewers Matchup

Jake Bauers has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (63% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this game.

When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Jake Bauers has been pulled from the game early 12% of the time.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the 3rd-best pitching conditions of all games on the slate today.

Jake Bauers pulls many of his flyballs (35.1% — 87th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Jake Bauers has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.4-mph dropping to 84.1-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Because of Carson Spiers’s large platoon split, William Contreras will be at a gigantic disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate today.

William Contreras has experienced some positive variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .281 figure is a fair amount higher than his .260 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Joey Ortiz is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

This year, Joey Ortiz has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 10% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.

Given Carson Spiers’s large platoon split, Joey Ortiz will be at a gigantic disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today’s game.

Joey Ortiz has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 7th-deepest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects T.J. Friedl in the 11th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

T.J. Friedl pulls a lot of his flyballs (37.4% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Among every team in action today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Milwaukee Brewers.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for T.J. Friedl today.

When assessing his home run ability, Jake Fraley ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

11% of the time that Jake Fraley has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

Today, Jake Fraley is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 33.6% rate (78th percentile).

Jeimer Candelario has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

In today’s game, Jeimer Candelario is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.6% rate (95th percentile).

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jeimer Candelario in today’s matchup.

Aaron Civale will have the handedness advantage against Spencer Steer today.

Milwaukee’s #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Spencer Steer, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

Spencer Steer will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

The #2 park in the game for boosting walks, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is American Family Field.

Brice Turang’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 88.3-mph seasonal average has decreased to 77.3-mph in the last week.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 6.8°, Brice Turang has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-13.3°) over the last 14 days.

Brice Turang’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (2.7°) is considerably lower than his 10.2° angle last season.

Carson Spiers will have the handedness advantage over Jackson Chourio today… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Spiers’s large platoon split.

Jackson Chourio has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 5.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

Jackson Chourio’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 90.3-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 80.8-mph over the past week.

Over the past 14 days, Spencer Steer’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.7% down to 0%.

Spencer Steer has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.9-mph dropping to 78.8-mph in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Will Benson in the 4th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Will Benson is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in today’s game.

When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Will Benson has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 31% of the time.

When estimating his home run skill, Brice Turang ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sal Frelick in the 4th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Sal Frelick is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game.

19% of the time that Sal Frelick has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.

Sal Frelick has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.7-mph dropping to 79.3-mph in the past 14 days.

Given Carson Spiers’s large platoon split, Willy Adames will be at a huge disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in today’s matchup.

Over the past two weeks, T.J. Friedl has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

When it comes to his home runs, T.J. Friedl has experienced some positive variance this year. His 23.2 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 11.6.

Hitting from the same side that Aaron Civale throws from, Jonathan India will be in a tough position today.

Jonathan India will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Jonathan India has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.4-mph dropping to 82.1-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

As it relates to his home runs, Jackson Chourio has been lucky this year. His 19.6 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 13.2.

When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Garrett Mitchell has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 23% of the time.

Over the past week, Garrett Mitchell’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.4% down to 0%.

Garrett Mitchell’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 91-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 85.4-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

Garrett Mitchell’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased of late, decreasing from 8.5% on the season to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

Jeimer Candelario’s launch angle lately (3.6° in the last two weeks’ worth of games) is considerably worse than his 12.2° seasonal figure.

Noelvi Marte is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today.

Aaron Civale will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Noelvi Marte in today’s matchup.

Noelvi Marte has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 7th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Elly De La Cruz will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Despite posting a .364 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Elly De La Cruz has had some very good luck given the .031 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .333.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Will Benson in today’s game.

Will Benson has had some very good luck with with his wOBA this year; his .291 rate is a fair amount higher than his .271 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ranking 2nd-lowest in Major League Baseball this year, Milwaukee Brewers bats jointly have notched a 11° launch angle (an advanced metric to measure the ability to lift the ball for power).

Aaron Civale will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats across the board.

Out of all starting pitchers, Aaron Civale’s fastball spin rate of 2400 rpm ranks in the 82nd percentile this year.

Considering the 0.71 discrepancy between Aaron Civale’s 5.14 ERA and his 4.43 estimated true talent ERA (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in baseball this year and ought to see better results the rest of the season.

Power-wise, Jonathan India finds himself in the 19th percentile, having averaged 10.8 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Bauers in the 15th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.326) provides evidence that William Contreras has experienced some positive variance this year with his .344 actual wOBA.

Noelvi Marte will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Sal Frelick’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (5.2°) is quite a bit lower than his 8.6° angle last year.

Aaron Civale’s cut-fastball usage has dropped by 5.7% from last season to this one (37.4% to 31.7%) .

Considering the 0.37 gap between Aaron Civale’s 8.68 K/9 and his 8.31 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and figures to see worse results in the future.

Checking in at the 24th percentile, Aaron Civale compiled a 9.1% Swinging Strike rate this year.