Red Sox @ Rays Matchup Details

Positives for the Boston Red Sox Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 77th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 4th-best stadium in baseball for righty home runs.

George M. Steinbrenner Field has the lowest fences in the majors.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.7) may lead us to conclude that Ceddanne Rafaela has been unlucky this year with his 17.5 actual HR/600.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.315) provides evidence that Ceddanne Rafaela has suffered from bad luck this year with his .297 actual wOBA.

Ceddanne Rafaela is remarkably athletic, checking in at the 92nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.14 ft/sec this year.

When it comes to his home run skill, Junior Caminero ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Junior Caminero is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Junior Caminero ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Junior Caminero will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet today.

Junior Caminero will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Carson Williams will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Carson Williams will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Williams in the 91st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson as the 18th-best hitter in the majors when it comes to his batting average ability.

Chandler Simpson is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.

Chandler Simpson will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Utilizing Statcast data, Chandler Simpson ranks in the 99th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .304.

George M. Steinbrenner Field grades out as the #4 ballpark in MLB for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masataka Yoshida in the 90th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Masataka Yoshida is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.

Masataka Yoshida will have the handedness advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today’s game.

Masataka Yoshida has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 79th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Trevor Story is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Trevor Story has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

Trevor Story has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season’s 28.07 ft/sec to 28.56 ft/sec now (according to Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric).

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alex Bregman is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card today.

Alex Bregman has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.4-mph average to last year’s 90.9-mph mark.

In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Alex Bregman ranks in the 81st percentile with a 17.5° launch angle, which is among the highest angles in baseball.

When assessing his batting average skill, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 7th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yandy Diaz is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Yandy Diaz projects as the 20th-best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Yandy Diaz will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Yandy Diaz has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.4%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 75th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have an advantage today.

Nathaniel Lowe may have the upper hand against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays has just 1 same-handed RP.

The #7 ballpark in the majors for boosting home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 6 hitters in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today’s game.

Garrett Crochet will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Garrett Crochet projects as the 3rd-best SP in the majors currently when assessing his strikeout skill, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Compared to the average starter, Garrett Crochet has been granted more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing an additional 8.7 adjusted pitches each start.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Everson Pereira, Hunter Feduccia, Carson Williams).

Garrett Crochet has gone to his slider 5.9% more often this year (15.6%) than he did last season (9.7%).

Out of all starters, Garrett Crochet’s fastball spin rate of 2459 rpm ranks in the 88th percentile this year.

The Boston Red Sox have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Nate Eaton, Carlos Narvaez, Trevor Story).

Drew Rasmussen will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats across the board.

Drew Rasmussen’s 94.8-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 77th percentile among all SPs.

Drew Rasmussen’s 2483-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 91st percentile among all SPs.

With a 0.8 gap between Drew Rasmussen’s 7.59 K/9 and his 8.39 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and should positively regress in future games.

Considering the 1.11 gap between Drew Rasmussen’s 2.74 ERA and his 3.85 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and ought to see worse results going forward.

Christopher Morel projects as the 20th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Christopher Morel is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Christopher Morel will have the handedness advantage over Garrett Crochet today.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 96th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Jarren Duran is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Jarren Duran will have an advantage in today’s game.

The Tampa Bay Rays have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jarren Duran ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Everson Pereira in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Everson Pereira will have the handedness advantage over Garrett Crochet today.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Everson Pereira will hold that advantage today.

Ranking in the 78th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.42 ft/sec this year, Everson Pereira is quite fast.

Carlos Narvaez has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.9%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

Carlos Narvaez’s 91-mph average exit velocity ranks among the elite in the majors this year: 76th percentile.

Negatives with the Tampa Bay Rays Game Today

Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.

Drew Rasmussen will have the handedness advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s matchup.

Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 92nd percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ceddanne Rafaela today.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s launch angle this year (11.8°) is a significant dropoff from his 14.8° figure last season.

Junior Caminero pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.7% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Out of all the teams in action today, the best infield defense is that of the Boston Red Sox.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (34.5) suggests that Junior Caminero has been very fortunate this year with his 42.6 actual HR/600.

By putting up a .250 BABIP this year, Junior Caminero is ranked in the 6th percentile.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.332) may lead us to conclude that Junior Caminero has had positive variance on his side this year with his .353 actual wOBA.

Junior Caminero has shown bad plate discipline this year, grading out in the 22nd percentile with a 3.46 K/BB rate.

Carson Williams is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game.

In the majors, George M. Steinbrenner Field’s centerfield dimensions are the 5th-deepest.

With a .244 wOBA in the past 7 days, Carson Williams has been struggling at the plate.

Garrett Crochet will hold the platoon advantage over Chandler Simpson in today’s game.

Chandler Simpson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Chandler Simpson has notched a .297 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 20th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Chandler Simpson’s 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to study power) is in the 0th percentile this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Chandler Simpson in the 0th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Posting a .000 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Chandler Simpson finds himself in the 0th percentile for power.

Masataka Yoshida will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Masataka Yoshida’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, decreasing from 15.5% to 6.9%.

With a .276 wOBA in the past week’s worth of games, Masataka Yoshida has been struggling at the plate.

Masataka Yoshida is quite slow, grading out in the 25th percentile in Sprint Speed at 26.41 ft/sec this year.

When assessing his home run skill, Masataka Yoshida ranks in the 25th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the same side that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Trevor Story will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Trevor Story will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Trevor Story has experienced some positive variance in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .325 figure is significantly inflated relative to his .311 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Trevor Story and his 8.3° launch angle on his hardest-hit balls rank in 18th percentile, among the lowest in MLB this year.

By putting up a 5.19 K/BB rate this year, Trevor Story has demonstrated poor plate discipline, ranking in the 5th percentile.

Batting from the same side that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Alex Bregman will have a disadvantage today.

Alex Bregman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Alex Bregman in today’s game.

This season, there has been a decline in Alex Bregman’s speed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.69 ft/sec last year to 25.97 ft/sec currently.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.318) may lead us to conclude that Alex Bregman has been lucky this year with his .354 actual wOBA.

When it comes to his home runs, Yandy Diaz has had positive variance on his side this year. His 23.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 14.3.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Yandy Diaz has had some very good luck this year. His .362 rate has been significantly inflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .337.

Nathaniel Lowe has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.8%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences today.

Nathaniel Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Nathaniel Lowe has posted a .293 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, ranking in the 16th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Based on Statcast metrics, Nathaniel Lowe is in the 19th percentile per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .231.

Nathaniel Lowe is very slow, placing in the 21st percentile in Sprint Speed at 26.19 ft/sec this year.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (12.5) implies that Nathaniel Lowe has experienced some positive variance this year with his 18.9 actual HR/600.

Nathaniel Lowe has compiled a .299 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, placing in the 25th percentile.

Garrett Crochet projects as the 5th-best pitcher in MLB currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Tampa Bay Rays projected offense ranks as the 5th-weakest of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill.

It may be sensible to expect worse results for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-luckiest offense in the majors this year.

Garrett Crochet’s fastball velocity has fallen 1.4 mph this season (95.7 mph) below where it was last year (97.1 mph).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drew Rasmussen to throw 78 pitches in this game (4th-least on the slate today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 58.5% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Drew Rasmussen as the 19th-best starter in Major League Baseball right now.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the projected lineup for the Boston Red Sox in today’s game has an estimated true talent wOBA of .312, which is significantly worse than their actual wOBA of .324 this year.

The Boston Red Sox have been the 6th-luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress the rest of the season,Christopher Morel pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.198) provides evidence that Christopher Morel has been very fortunate this year with his .223 actual batting average.

By putting up a 4.86 K/BB rate this year, Christopher Morel has displayed weak plate discipline, ranking in the 9th percentile.

Christopher Morel has posted a .217 batting average this year, grading out in the 10th percentile.

Christopher Morel has notched a .294 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 21st percentile.

Jarren Duran has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.1%) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Jarren Duran’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (5.2°) is a considerable dropoff from his 8.4° mark last season.

This season, there has been a decline in Jarren Duran’s quickness with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 29.6 ft/sec last year to 29.12 ft/sec currently.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.329) implies that Jarren Duran has been lucky this year with his .341 actual wOBA.

Everson Pereira is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

Everson Pereira hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 82nd percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Drew Rasmussen will hold the platoon advantage over Carlos Narvaez in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Carlos Narvaez in today’s game.

Carlos Narvaez has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .322 rate is significantly inflated relative to his .289 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34° (the launch angle range that tends to best-produce home runs), Carlos Narvaez and his 13.5% rank in the 18th percentile this year.

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