World Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Red Sox vs Rays Matchup Today

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

George M. Steinbrenner Field has the 10th-lowest average fence height among all stadiums.

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 3rd-most suitable for hitting on the slate.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.8-mph in this contest, the 4th-most-favorable of the day for batters.

Hitting from the opposite that Shane Baz throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have the upper hand today.

Wilyer Abreu pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

Ceddanne Rafaela has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

In terms of his home runs, Ceddanne Rafaela has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 14.5 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 18.3.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Junior Caminero is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 83rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Junior Caminero will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell as the 14th-best hitter in the majors when estimating his BABIP ability.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Kristian Campbell ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.

Rafael Devers will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shane Baz in today’s matchup.

Carlos Narvaez, the Red Sox’s expected catcher today, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Tanner Houck will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Throwing 94.9 adjusted pitches per outing since the start of last season on average, Tanner Houck falls in the 88th percentile.

Considering that flyball hitters struggle against flyball pitchers, Tanner Houck (50.7% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.

Considering the 0.43 difference between Tanner Houck’s 7.57 K/9 and his 8.00 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball since the start of last season as it relates to strikeouts and ought to see positive regression in future games.

Trevor Story is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Trevor Story has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 79th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Bregman in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Alex Bregman is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

Alex Bregman’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 94-mph now compared to just 89-mph then.

When assessing his batting average skill, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 18th-best hitter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Yandy Diaz is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Yandy Diaz ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When assessing his home run ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brandon Lowe is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Batting from the opposite that Tanner Houck throws from, Brandon Lowe will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Danny Jansen in the 77th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Extreme groundball hitters like Danny Jansen usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Tanner Houck.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Danny Jansen will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In the past 14 days, Danny Jansen has been successful in optimizing the launch angle of his hardest hit balls to hit for power, putting up a 27.6° angle.

When it comes to his home run ability, Christopher Morel ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Christopher Morel is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 84th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Taylor Walls will hold that advantage today.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (7.4) provides evidence that Taylor Walls has had some very poor luck since the start of last season with his 2.1 actual HR/600.

When it comes to plate discipline, Taylor Walls’s ability is quite good, putting up a 1.91 K/BB rate since the start of last season while placing in in the 83rd percentile.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Triston Casas ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Triston Casas is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.

Triston Casas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shane Baz in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 90th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran as the 17th-best batter in MLB when assessing his BABIP skill.

Jarren Duran is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.

Jarren Duran will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Shane Baz in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s assessment, Shane Baz’s overall pitching talent is in the 78th percentile among all starters in MLB right now.

Generating 17.3 outs per outing since the start of last season on average, Shane Baz falls in the 84th percentile.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 4th-most strikeout-prone lineup today is the Boston Red Sox with a 24.7% underlying K%.

Given that flyball pitchers hold a big edge over flyball hitters, Shane Baz and his 36% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a favorable position today going up against 2 opposing FB hitters.

Shane Baz will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his metrics across the board.

Shane Baz was on point in his last GS and posted 10 strikeouts.

Shane Baz has relied on his curveball 13.9% more often this year (34.4%) than he did last year (20.5%).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan Aranda in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.

Jonathan Aranda will hold the platoon advantage over Tanner Houck today.

Kameron Misner will have the handedness advantage against Tanner Houck in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Kameron Misner will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Kameron Misner’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 55.6% on the season to 66.7% in the past week.

Negative Match Player Stats with Red Sox vs Rays

Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 6th in the batting order today.

The #3 stadium in the league for suppressing offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.

Extreme flyball batters like Wilyer Abreu generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Shane Baz.

The Tampa Bay Rays outfield defense projects as the 3rd-best among every team in action today.

Tampa Bay’s #3-ranked outfield defense of the day poses a formidable challenge for Wilyer Abreu, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Wilyer Abreu in today’s game.

Wilyer Abreu’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 94.9-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 88.6-mph over the last 7 days.

George M. Steinbrenner Field projects as the #23 venue in the league for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Ceddanne Rafaela ranks in the 21st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ceddanne Rafaela is penciled in 9th in the lineup in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Shane Baz throws from, Ceddanne Rafaela will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 4th-worst field in MLB for RHB batting average.

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ceddanne Rafaela in today’s matchup.

Ceddanne Rafaela’s launch angle this year (7.5°) is a significant dropoff from his 14.8° angle last year.

Tanner Houck will hold the platoon advantage against Junior Caminero today.

Junior Caminero hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.6% — 94th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest CF fences today.

Extreme groundball batters like Junior Caminero usually hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Tanner Houck.

The Boston Red Sox outfield defense profiles as the 4th-strongest among every team in action today.

This year, Junior Caminero’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 11.9% last year to just 5.7% this year.

Junior Caminero’s launch angle this season (3.1°) is a significant dropoff from his 6.8° mark last year.

Kristian Campbell is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in today’s game.

Shane Baz will hold the platoon advantage against Kristian Campbell today.

Kristian Campbell hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Kristian Campbell in today’s matchup.

In the last week, Kristian Campbell has failed to produce much power, posting a mere a 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to study power).

Rafael Devers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Rafael Devers will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Rafael Devers has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .360 mark is a good deal higher than his .342 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Tanner Houck in the 85th percentile when estimating his overall pitching skills.

The Tampa Bay Rays have been the 8th-luckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse going forward,The #3 field in Major League Baseball for suppressing batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.

George M. Steinbrenner Field has the 5th-deepest CF dimensions among all parks.

Tanner Houck wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out in his previous GS and compiled 2 Ks.

Hitting from the same side that Shane Baz throws from, Trevor Story faces a tough challenge today.

Trevor Story will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

In the last 7 days, Trevor Story’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal EV of 92.4 mph to 88.2 mph.

Trevor Story has been cold recently, posting a 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) over the last 7 days.

In the past two weeks, Trevor Story has not been doing well in optimizing the launch angle on his hardest hit balls to generate power, managing a mere a 4.6° angle.

Hitting from the same side that Shane Baz throws from, Alex Bregman has a tough challenge today.

Alex Bregman pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Extreme groundball batters like Alex Bregman tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Shane Baz.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Alex Bregman in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his home runs, Alex Bregman has been lucky since the start of last season. His 23.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 19.7.

Tanner Houck will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yandy Diaz in today’s matchup.

Typically, batters like Yandy Diaz who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Tanner Houck.

Yandy Diaz’s launch angle this year (-0.6°) is quite a bit lower than his 4.8° figure last season.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 1.6°, Yandy Diaz’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls has dropped significantly lately (-7.6° in the past 14 days).

Brandon Lowe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 5th-deepest CF fences today.

Brandon Lowe’s speed has fallen off this year. His 27.19 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 23.69 ft/sec now.

Brandon Lowe has been cold recently, notching an 83.1-mph average exit velocity in the last week’s worth of games.

Danny Jansen is penciled in 9th on the lineup card in this game.

Batting from the same side that Tanner Houck throws from, Danny Jansen faces a tough challenge today.

Danny Jansen pulls many of his flyballs (42.1% — 100th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Danny Jansen has been cold recently, putting up a 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to measure power) over the last 14 days.

Placing in the 13th percentile, Danny Jansen sports a .343 Slugging Percentage (SLG) since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Danny Jansen in the 1st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.

Tanner Houck will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Christopher Morel in today’s matchup.

In today’s game, Christopher Morel is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.8% rate (95th percentile).

In notching a .291 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Christopher Morel grades out in the 24th percentile.

By putting up a .361 Slugging Percentage (SLG) since the start of last season, Christopher Morel grades out in the 24th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Taylor Walls in the 5th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Taylor Walls is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Taylor Walls will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side against Tanner Houck today.

Taylor Walls hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Taylor Walls ranks in the 14th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Over the past two weeks, Taylor Walls has recorded a mere a 0% Barrel%, indicating a decline in power ability.

Playing on the road typically lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Triston Casas in today’s game.

Triston Casas’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 90.2-mph average last season has decreased to 87.1-mph.

Triston Casas has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .321 rate is a fair amount higher than his .287 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Jarren Duran will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Jarren Duran’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 93.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 82.4-mph over the past week.

Jarren Duran’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (3.8°) is a considerable dropoff from his 8.4° figure last season.

Jarren Duran has struggled to lift the ball in recent games, posting a -6.7° launch angle over the past 7 days.

With a 1.08 gap between Shane Baz’s 2.82 ERA and his 3.91 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball since the start of last season and should perform worse in the future.

Shane Baz has been one of the luckiest mound aces in the majors on balls in play since the start of last season with a .242 BABIP and should see that luck normalize going forward.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Carlos Narvaez ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game.

Shane Baz will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Carlos Narvaez in today’s game.

Carlos Narvaez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Narvaez in the 5th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kameron Misner in the 6th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Kameron Misner is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

Kameron Misner hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and will be challenged by baseball’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kameron Misner in the 18th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Kameron Misner has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 7.4% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last 7 days.

Kameron Misner’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 93.4-mph seasonal average has decreased to 84.2-mph over the last 7 days.

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