Red Sox vs Blue Jays match player stats | 2025 Series Game 2 Wednesday, April 30th

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Red Sox vs Blue Jays match player stats | 2025 Series Game 2 Wednesday, April 30th

BOS @ TOR

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Series Game 2 Matchup Details

Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
Series Game 2
Todays Game is on Wednesday, April 30th
30/04/25 19:07:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positive Match Player Stats for Red Sox vs Blue Jays Series Game 2 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 88th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Wilyer Abreu is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

The 10th-shallowest centerfield fences among all major league parks are found in Rogers Centre.

Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage over Casey Lawrence in today’s game… and the cherry on top, Lawrence has a huge platoon split.

In the past week’s worth of games, Wilyer Abreu’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.3% up to 25%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 90th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.

Rogers Centre grades out as the #2 venue in the game for LHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Rogers Centre as the 2nd-best venue in baseball for righty home runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.338) provides evidence that Ceddanne Rafaela has experienced some negative variance this year with his .284 actual wOBA.

Addison Barger will hold the platoon advantage over Lucas Giolito in today’s game.

Addison Barger will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Addison Barger has been hot in recent games, compiling a 92.5-mph average exit velocity over the past two weeks.

In terms of his batting average, Addison Barger has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season. His .199 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .240.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Kristian Campbell has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 98.8-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal mark of 92.8-mph.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Kristian Campbell has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 20.4° compared to his seasonal mark of 14.9°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell as the 7th-best batter in baseball when estimating his BABIP ability.

Over the past 14 days, Kristian Campbell’s 63.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 57.1%.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Anthony Santander will hold that advantage today.

Checking in at the 98th percentile for power, Anthony Santander has hit 36.4 homers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Anthony Santander’s true offensive skill to be a .327, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .075 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .252 wOBA.

In notching a .334 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Anthony Santander is positioned in the 76th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Santander in the 94th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Because of Casey Lawrence’s huge platoon split, Rafael Devers will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today’s matchup.

Rafael Devers hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Rafael Devers has made notable strides with his Barrel%, improving his 13.1% rate last season to 22.5% this year.

As it relates to his home run skill, Trevor Story ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Trevor Story is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.

Trevor Story has strong power (78th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (29% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Casey Lawrence is a pitch-to-contact type (15th percentile K%) — great news for Story.

Trevor Story hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Trevor Story has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 93.4-mph in the last two weeks.

Over the last 14 days, Trevor Story’s 22.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.1%.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, George Springer ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

George Springer is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and George Springer will hold that advantage today.

George Springer’s launch angle of late (25.6° in the past two weeks) is a significant increase over his 17.5° seasonal figure.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Alex Bregman is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.

Toronto’s 3rd-worst outfield defense of the day creates a favorable matchup for Alex Bregman, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

Alex Bregman has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 10.1% seasonal rate to 15.8% in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Andres Gimenez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Andres Gimenez will hold the platoon advantage over Lucas Giolito in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball hitters like Andres Gimenez usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vladimir Guerrero Jr. as the 2nd-best hitter in baseball when assessing his batting average ability.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.5% — 94th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game’s 10th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. projects as the 6th-best batter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.1-mph to 97.3-mph in the last 14 days.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Bo Bichette ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Bo Bichette is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Bo Bichette will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bo Bichette as the 9th-best hitter in MLB when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Bo Bichette’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 45% to 54.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alejandro Kirk in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Alejandro Kirk will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Alejandro Kirk has had some very poor luck with his home runs since the start of last season; his 7.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is deflated compared to his 14.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Alejandro Kirk’s true offensive talent to be a .318, providing some evidence that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .058 gap between that figure and his actual .260 wOBA.

As it relates to plate discipline, Alejandro Kirk’s talent is quite good, sporting a 1.52 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 91st percentile.

The 5.8% Barrel% of the Toronto Blue Jays grades them out as the #30 offense in the game this year by this stat.

Rogers Centre profiles as the #5 ballpark in the league for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 79th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Given Casey Lawrence’s huge platoon split, Triston Casas will have a huge advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today’s game.

Triston Casas has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.9% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past week.

Triston Casas has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 101.2-mph average in the last week to his seasonal mark of 94.1-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Triston Casas in the 90th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

When assessing his BABIP skill, Jarren Duran is projected as the 14th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jarren Duran is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.

Jarren Duran will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Casey Lawrence today… and the cherry on top, Lawrence has a huge platoon split.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jarren Duran ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Based on Statcast metrics, Jarren Duran ranks in the 87th percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .347.

In the last two weeks, Carlos Narvaez’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.5% up to 16.7%.

Negative Match Player Stats with Red Sox vs Blue Jays Series Game 2

The #6 park in the game for suppressing BABIP to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Rogers Centre.

Extreme flyball hitters like Wilyer Abreu tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Casey Lawrence.

Out of every team today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Toronto Blue Jays.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Wilyer Abreu in today’s matchup.

Wilyer Abreu has had some very good luck with his batting average since the start of last season; his .257 rate is a good deal higher than his .230 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The league’s 8th-tallest average fence height can be found at Rogers Centre.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Casey Lawrence will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ceddanne Rafaela today… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Lawrence’s huge platoon split.

Ceddanne Rafaela will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Rogers Centre ranks as the #25 field in the game for RHB base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ceddanne Rafaela’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 92.8-mph figure last season has dropped off to 88-mph.

Addison Barger is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

Out of all the teams in action today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Boston Red Sox.

Addison Barger’s quickness has dropped off this year. His 27.98 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 27.43 ft/sec now.

Addison Barger has been cold recently, posting a .259 wOBA over the past two weeks.

By putting up a 4.39 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Addison Barger has displayed bad plate discipline, ranking in the 24th percentile.

Kristian Campbell is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game.

Because of Casey Lawrence’s huge platoon split, Kristian Campbell will be at an enormous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Kristian Campbell today.

In the last week, Kristian Campbell’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.9% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Santander in the 1st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

As a switch-hitter who performs worse from the 0 side of the dish, Anthony Santander will be less advantaged while batting from his weak side against Lucas Giolito today.

Typically, bats like Anthony Santander who hit a lot of groundballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Lucas Giolito.

In the last 7 days, Anthony Santander’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 89.4 mph to 84.7 mph.

Anthony Santander’s launch angle of late (0° over the last week) is significantly lower than his 17.4° seasonal angle.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Rafael Devers in today’s game.

Casey Lawrence will hold the platoon advantage against Trevor Story in today’s game… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Lawrence’s huge platoon split.

Trevor Story will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

In the last week’s worth of games, Trevor Story’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.8% down to 0%.

As it relates to his home runs, Trevor Story has had some very good luck since the start of last season. His 18.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 14.9.

Lucas Giolito will hold the platoon advantage over George Springer in today’s matchup.

George Springer has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 15.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the last 7 days.

Grading out in the 25th percentile, George Springer sits with a .273 BABIP since the start of last season.

Considering Casey Lawrence’s huge platoon split, Alex Bregman will be at a massive disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in today’s matchup.

Typically, batters like Alex Bregman who hit a lot of flyballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Casey Lawrence.

Alex Bregman will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Alex Bregman has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .401 mark is inflated compared to his .327 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Over the past 7 days, Andres Gimenez’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal mark of 92.8 mph to 86.9 mph.

Checking in at the 11th percentile, Andres Gimenez has put up a .275 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

Checking in at the 23rd percentile, Andres Gimenez sits with a .272 BABIP since the start of last season.

Andres Gimenez has performed at a clip of 7.7 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, placing in the 9th percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andres Gimenez in the 20th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Lucas Giolito will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in today’s matchup.

In the last 7 days, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 8.9%.

Lucas Giolito will hold the platoon advantage against Bo Bichette in today’s matchup.

Bo Bichette has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph dropping to 82.7-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

In the past two weeks, Bo Bichette’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (4°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 8.8°.

Bo Bichette has put up a .283 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, grading out in the 18th percentile.

Alejandro Kirk is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Lucas Giolito throws from, Alejandro Kirk will have a disadvantage today.

Alejandro Kirk has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 6.7% rate last year has dropped off to 1.5% this year.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 15.4°, Alejandro Kirk has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (7.8°) in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Toronto Blue Jays offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 7th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

Derek Thomas projects as a Hitters Umpire and is likely to be behind the plate today.

Rogers Centre ranks as the #3 ballpark in Major League Baseball for home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Lucas Giolito is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league parks in this matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today is the Toronto Blue Jays with a 17.7% underlying K%.

Because groundball hitters have a big edge over flyball pitchers, Lucas Giolito and his 37.2% underlying GB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a difficult position in today’s matchup squaring off against 1 opposing GB hitters.

Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Lucas Giolito today.

Triston Casas is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 52% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Triston Casas will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Triston Casas’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased recently, going from 37.5% on the season to 19.2% in the past 14 days.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jarren Duran in today’s game.

Jarren Duran has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 7.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.6°, Jarren Duran has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-3.7°) in the past two weeks.

Last season, Jarren Duran had a launch angle of 8.4° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this year he experienced a significant decline to just 0.7°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Narvaez in the 13th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this game.

Carlos Narvaez has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 10% of the time when starting against a right-handed starter this year.

Because of Casey Lawrence’s huge platoon split, Carlos Narvaez will be at a huge disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Narvaez in the 22nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

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