Todays Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Tampa Bay Rays at Kansas City Royals
Series Game 3
Todays Game is on Thursday, July 4th
2024-07-04 20:10:00 EST Game Start Time / First Pitch

Player match stat positives for Tampa Bay at Kansas City Series Game 3 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Vinnie Pasquantino in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.

Kauffman Stadium profiles as the #3 field in the majors for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Kauffman Stadium has the 10th-lowest fences in Major League Baseball.

Built 886 feet above sea level, Kauffman Stadium has the 4th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

High humidity has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report projects the most humidity on the schedule today at 77%.

The #2 ballpark in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.

Nick Loftin will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should improve all of his stats.

Nick Loftin has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 3.3% seasonal rate to 8.3% over the past 14 days.

When assessing his home run ability, Salvador Perez ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Salvador Perez is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Salvador Perez ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ben Rortvedt will hold the platoon advantage against Alec Marsh today.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Randy Arozarena is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 9th-best batter in MLB when assessing his batting average skill.

Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Ben Rortvedt, Jose Siri, Josh Lowe).

With 6 batters who bat from the same side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Alec Marsh should benefit from having the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s outing.

Alec Marsh will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats across the board.

Alec Marsh’s 2515-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 92nd percentile among all starters.

Considering the 0.8 gap between Alec Marsh’s 8.16 K/9 and his 8.95 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the least fortunate pitchers in baseball this year as it relates to strikeouts and should positively regress the rest of the season.

Kauffman Stadium grades out as the #2 ballpark in the league for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Kyle Isbel will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin in today’s game.

Kyle Isbel will probably have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays has just 1 same-handed RP.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Alec Marsh in the 19th percentile when assessing his overall pitching talent level.

The #1 field in baseball for boosting walks, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Kauffman Stadium.

Michael Massey is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

Nick Loftin has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 86.7-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 84-mph mark.

When estimating his home run talent, Jose Siri ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jose Siri has made significant improvements with his Barrel% recently, upping his 15.7% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Maikel Garcia is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.

Isaac Paredes is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bobby Witt Jr. as the 7th-best batter in the game when estimating his batting average talent.

Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Given the 0.85 disparity between Zach Eflin’s 7.11 K/9 and his 7.96 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts and should positively regress in the future.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Maikel Garcia will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Yandy Diaz ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Isaac Paredes ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Hunter Renfroe will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Zach Eflin in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall pitching abilities.

Zach Eflin turned in a great performance in his last start and allowed 0 ER.

Zach Eflin has notched a 9.6 K/BB rate this year, grading out in the 100th percentile.

Zach Eflin has exhibited good control this year, putting up a 100th percentile BB% of 2%.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Kyle Isbel will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, MJ Melendez will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

MJ Melendez will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Tampa Bay Rays only has 1 same-handed RP.

As it relates to his home run skill, MJ Melendez ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Alec Marsh throws from, Josh Lowe will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Josh Lowe has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 15.8% seasonal rate to 24% in the last two weeks.

Zach Eflin will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Brandon Lowe ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jose Siri’s BABIP talent is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hunter Renfroe has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.7% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the last two weeks.

Isaac Paredes’s launch angle in recent games (33.3° over the past 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 23.6° seasonal angle.

Batting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, Michael Massey will have an advantage today.

Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 14th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When it comes to his home run ability, Hunter Renfroe ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ben Rortvedt has put up a .271 batting average this year, checking in at the 76th percentile.

Thursday Series Game 3 player match stat slumps with Rays vs Royals Matchup

Vinnie Pasquantino pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% , — 90th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s deepest RF fences today.

Vinnie Pasquantino has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 7.5% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% over the last two weeks.

By putting up a .246 BABIP this year, Vinnie Pasquantino is ranked in the 12th percentile.

Josh Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (96% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.

When starting against a northpaw this year, Josh Lowe has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 17% of the time.

Josh Lowe hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.1% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 4th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Josh Lowe today.

Nick Loftin is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

Nick Loftin has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 11% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.

Home runs are generally less common at ballparks with deep fences, and Kauffman Stadium has the 2nd-deepest in the majors.

Zach Eflin will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Loftin in today’s matchup.

Nick Loftin’s launch angle in recent games (-3.7° in the past week’s worth of games) is considerably worse than his 11.7° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Kauffman Stadium as the 7th-worst park in the majors for RHB home runs.

Zach Eflin will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Salvador Perez in today’s matchup.

Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.8% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 18°, Salvador Perez has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (9.6°) over the last two weeks.

Salvador Perez’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, falling from 42.5% on the season to 33.3% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

In terms of his batting average, Salvador Perez has been lucky this year. His .281 BA has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .255.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Ben Rortvedt ranks in the 21st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ben Rortvedt is penciled in 9th in the batting order today.

Ben Rortvedt has been pulled from the game early 18% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

Kauffman Stadium grades out as the #24 field in MLB for lefty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ben Rortvedt has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.8%) and will be challenged by baseball’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.

Hitting from the same side that Alec Marsh throws from, Randy Arozarena will have a tough challenge today.

Today, Randy Arozarena is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.4% rate (84th percentile).

Randy Arozarena will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Posting a .237 BABIP this year, Randy Arozarena is positioned in the 9th percentile.

Alec Marsh will hold the platoon advantage against Yandy Diaz in today’s matchup.

In today’s matchup, Yandy Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41.6% rate (98th percentile).

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Yandy Diaz in today’s game.

Yandy Diaz’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 91.6-mph seasonal average has dropped to 85.7-mph in the last week.

Yandy Diaz’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (-0.6°) is considerably worse than his 4.9° mark last year.

It is anticipated that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Adrian Johnson) behind the plate in today’s game.

Projected catcher Salvador Perez projects as a weak pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Kauffman Stadium as the 2nd-worst stadium in the league for strikeouts.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Isbel in the 24th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Kyle Isbel is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today’s game.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, Kyle Isbel has been pinch hit for 13% of the time.

Among all major league parks, Kauffman Stadium’s RF dimensions are the deepest.

Over the last two weeks, Kyle Isbel’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 91.6 mph to 88.8 mph.

Alec Marsh turned in a great performance in his previous outing and gave up 1 ER.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Massey in the 24th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

In today’s game, Michael Massey is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 38.1% rate (96th percentile).

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Michael Massey has been lucky this year. His .348 mark has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .290.

Hitting the ball to all fields is a core ability for batting average that Michael Massey has struggled with since the start of last season, as evidenced by his grading out in the 0th percentile on THE BAT X’s Spray Score.

As it relates to plate discipline, Michael Massey’s talent is quite poor, posting a 4.63 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 12th percentile.

When it comes to his home run skill, Nick Loftin ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jose Siri is projected to hit 7th in the lineup today.

Batting from the same side that Alec Marsh throws from, Jose Siri encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

In today’s matchup, Jose Siri is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 36% rate (92nd percentile).

Jose Siri will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Zach Eflin will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Maikel Garcia in today’s game.

Today, Maikel Garcia is at a disadvantage facing the league’s deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.6% rate (93rd percentile).

Maikel Garcia’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 92.7-mph mark last season has dropped off to 90.5-mph.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Maikel Garcia’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal mark of 90.5 mph to 88.5 mph.

Maikel Garcia’s launch angle recently (0.6° over the last week) is considerably worse than his 7.6° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isaac Paredes in the 2nd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Hitting from the same side that Alec Marsh throws from, Isaac Paredes has a tough challenge today.

Today, Isaac Paredes is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 46.1% rate (100th percentile).

Playing on the road typically diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Isaac Paredes in today’s matchup.

Isaac Paredes’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.9-mph EV last year has fallen off to 84.9-mph.

Hitting from the same side that Zach Eflin throws from, Bobby Witt Jr. will be at a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Bobby Witt Jr. has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.9%) and will be challenged by the league’s deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Bobby Witt Jr.’s launch angle recently (2.8° over the past week) is considerably worse than his 14.2° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zach Eflin to throw 85 pitches today (7th-least of the day), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Maikel Garcia in the 16th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

When starting against a northpaw this year, Brandon Lowe has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 21% of the time.

Brandon Lowe hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 4th-deepest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Brandon Lowe will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (26.2) suggests that Brandon Lowe has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 28.2 actual HR/600.

Posting a .273 BABIP since the start of last season, Brandon Lowe has performed in the 21st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Renfroe in the 2nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Hunter Renfroe is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.

Zach Eflin will have the handedness advantage over Hunter Renfroe in today’s game.

Hunter Renfroe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.2% — 98th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB’s 4th-deepest LF fences today.

Using Statcast metrics, Hunter Renfroe grades out in the 9th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average this year at .210.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects MJ Melendez in the 25th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

MJ Melendez is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, MJ Melendez has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 18% of the time.

MJ Melendez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 83rd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball’s deepest RF fences today.

MJ Melendez has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 9.8% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last 7 days.

MJ Melendez’s launch angle lately (0.3° over the last 7 days) is a considerable dropoff from his 14° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ben Rortvedt in the 9th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

Ben Rortvedt will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

By putting up a 4.23 K/BB rate this year, Jose Siri has shown poor plate discipline, grading out in the 14th percentile.

Collectively, Kansas City Royals bats have not performed well in regard to hitting balls in the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (between -4° and 26°), ranking worst in the majors.

Randy Arozarena’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls in recent games (2.9° over the past 14 days) is considerably lower than his 11° seasonal angle.

Michael Massey’s launch angle this year (15°) is significantly lower than his 19.6° angle last year.