Padres vs Giants match player stats | 2026 Monday, May 4th

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SD @ SF

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Padres @ Giants Matchup Details

Teams : San Diego Padres at San Francisco Giants

Date : Todays Game is on Monday, May 4th
Time : 04/05/26 21:45:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positives for the San Diego Padres Game Today

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 11th-best batter in the game.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today.

,The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.7-mph in this game, the 4th-strongest of the day for bats.

,Fernando Tatis Jr. has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

,In the past 7 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.3% up to 21.4%.

,As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 11.3°, Xander Bogaerts has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 34.8° mark in the past 7 days.

,Xander Bogaerts’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 13.5% to 17.4%.

,Oracle Park projects as the #5 stadium in MLB for LHB batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The shallowest right field dimensions in the league are found in Oracle Park.

,The switch-hitting Patrick Bailey will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Randy Vasquez.

,Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Patrick Bailey will hold that advantage today.

,When estimating his overall offensive ability, Rafael Devers ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Rafael Devers is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today.

,Rafael Devers will have the handedness advantage over Randy Vasquez in today’s game.

,Jackson Merrill’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Jackson Merrill is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

,Batting from the opposite that Trevor McDonald throws from, Jackson Merrill will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,Generating 16.8 outs per GS this year on average, Randy Vasquez places in the 75th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oracle Park as the worst park in baseball for walks.

,Randy Vasquez was in good form in his last start and conceded 0 ER.

,The #5 park in the league for boosting batting average to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.

,Patrick Bailey has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 96.3-mph in the past two weeks.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

,Matt Chapman is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this game.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Matt Chapman will hold that advantage today.

,Matt Chapman has put up a .293 Isolated Power rate (ISO) since the start of last season, placing in the 78th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Miguel Andujar in the 88th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

,The San Francisco Giants outfield defense profiles as the 4th-weakest among every team playing today.

,In the past 7 days, Miguel Andujar’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.7% up to 22.2%.

,Batting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Drew Gilbert will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,Drew Gilbert will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

,Drew Gilbert has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits of late, lifting balls between -4° and 26° 58.3% of the time over the past two weeks.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 94th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

,Willy Adames has big-time power (94th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s usually a big “IF” (26.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Randy Vasquez has a pitch-to-contact profile (24th percentile K%) — great news for Adames.

,Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Despite posting a .258 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Willy Adames has had some very poor luck given the .072 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .330.

,Luis Arraez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

,Luis Arraez will have the handedness advantage over Randy Vasquez in today’s matchup.

,Luis Arraez will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 89th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

,As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Heliot Ramos ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Heliot Ramos has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Heliot Ramos will hold that advantage today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 87th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

,Ramon Laureano is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card today.

,Posting a .358 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season, Ramon Laureano has performed in the 88th percentile for offensive ability.

,When assessing his overall offensive talent, Willy Adames ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Gavin Sheets will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor McDonald today.

,Gavin Sheets pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 84th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

,Gavin Sheets has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 99.8-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal EV of 94.3-mph.

,Projected catcher Patrick Bailey profiles as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Trevor McDonald will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 6 opposing batters in this matchup.

,Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Trevor McDonald will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Matt Chapman has made substantial strides with his Barrel% lately, upping his 4.6% seasonal rate to 20% in the past week.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 76th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

,Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage over Trevor McDonald in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

,The Barrel% of Heliot Ramos has significantly improved, with an increase from 8.9% last year to 16.7% this year.

,Casey Schmitt is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

,Casey Schmitt will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

,Casey Schmitt has made notable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 14.9% seasonal rate to 21.4% over the past week.

,Jung Hoo Lee has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (71% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.

,Jung Hoo Lee will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Randy Vasquez in today’s game.

,Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Jung Hoo Lee will hold that advantage today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 76th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

,Ty France has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

,Ty France has made significant gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 7.7% rate last season to 17.5% this season.

,Ty France has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.9-mph to 100.8-mph in the past 7 days.

,In the past week’s worth of games, Miguel Andujar’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 92.9-mph over the course of the season to 100.7-mph recently.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,Manny Machado is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.

,In the last 7 days, Manny Machado’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6.5% up to 20%.

,Jake Cronenworth has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 98.3-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal average of 92.8-mph.

,In his last start, Randy Vasquez was on point and put up 8 strikeouts.

,Randy Vasquez’s 2433-rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 80th percentile among all starters.

,Randy Vasquez has put up a 12.4% Swinging Strike rate this year, placing in the 82nd percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jung Hoo Lee in the 94th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

,When it comes to his batting average skill, Luis Arraez is projected as the 5th-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Compared to last year, Gavin Sheets has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15% to 18.2% this season.

,Generating 19.5 outs per GS since the start of last season on average, Trevor McDonald places him the 100th percentile.

,Compared to his seasonal average of 22.5°, Casey Schmitt has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 26.2° angle in the last 14 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ty France in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

,Miguel Andujar’s launch angle recently (18.9° in the past two weeks) is a significant increase over his 10.6° seasonal angle.

,Sporting a .349 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) since the start of last season, Miguel Andujar is ranked in the 86th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,Based on Statcast metrics, Ramon Laureano ranks in the 89th percentile for power via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season at 30.400.

,Grading out in the 76th percentile for power, Drew Gilbert has averaged 21.2 HRs per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season.

,Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (28.2) suggests that Manny Machado has had bad variance on his side since the start of last season with his 23.2 actual HR/600.

Negatives with the San Francisco Giants Game Today

The #4 field in the league for suppressing home runs to RHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.

,Among all parks, the tallest average fence height are at Oracle Park.

,Oracle Park’s altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output.

,Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly correlated with cold weather, and the weather report for this game expects the lowest temperature on the slate at 58°.

,Trevor McDonald will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Fernando Tatis Jr. in today’s matchup.

,Trevor McDonald will have the handedness advantage over Xander Bogaerts today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Patrick Bailey in the 9th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

,Patrick Bailey is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Patrick Bailey has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 5.7% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the past week.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oracle Park as the 4th-worst stadium in baseball for LHB home runs.

,Over the past two weeks, Rafael Devers’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.4% down to 0%.

,Rafael Devers’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this year; his 96.3-mph mark last year has fallen off to 89.5-mph.

,Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Jackson Merrill today.

,In the past two weeks, Jackson Merrill’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.7% down to 0%.

,It may be smart to expect better numbers for the San Francisco Giants offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

,Randy Vasquez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

,Randy Vasquez has used his slider 6.3% less often this season (10.2%) than he did last season (16.5%).

,Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. today.

,There has been a significant decline in Fernando Tatis Jr.’s launch angle from last season’s 9.6° to 3.2° this season.

,Hitting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Matt Chapman encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

,Miguel Andujar is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Batting from the same side that Trevor McDonald throws from, Miguel Andujar will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.

,Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Miguel Andujar today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Drew Gilbert in the 7th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

,Drew Gilbert is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today.

,Willy Adames has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

,When assessing his overall offensive ability, Freddy Fermin ranks in the 19th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Freddy Fermin is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez in the 0th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

,When it comes to his home runs, Luis Arraez has been very fortunate since the start of last season. His 5.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 0.0.

,Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Batting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Heliot Ramos will have a disadvantage in today’s game.

,Over the last 7 days, Heliot Ramos’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.2%.

,Hitting from the same side that Trevor McDonald throws from, Ramon Laureano encounters a tough challenge today.

,Hitting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Willy Adames encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,Over the last 7 days, Willy Adames’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.8% down to 0%.

,Gavin Sheets’s BABIP talent is projected in the 21st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

,When estimating his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Trevor McDonald in the 20th percentile among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.

,The San Diego Padres (20.5 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone team of hitters on the slate today.

,The #9 park in MLB for suppressing strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.

,With a 1.42 difference between Trevor McDonald’s 8.40 K/9 and his 6.98 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in baseball since the start of last season in terms of strikeouts and ought to negatively regress in the future.

,Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ramon Laureano in today’s game.

,In the past week’s worth of games, Ramon Laureano’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.5% down to 0%.

,Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jake Cronenworth in today’s game.

,From last year to this one, Jake Cronenworth’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 15% to 9%.

,Randy Vasquez will have the handedness advantage over Casey Schmitt in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Casey Schmitt’s true offensive skill to be a .315, indicating that he has been lucky this year given the .061 difference between that figure and his actual .376 wOBA.

,When it comes to his home run ability, Jung Hoo Lee ranks in the 7th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,In the past week, Jung Hoo Lee’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal figure of 90.2 mph to 85.7 mph.

,Ty France is projected to bat 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Hitting from the same side that Trevor McDonald throws from, Manny Machado will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

,Over the last week, Drew Gilbert’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.2% down to 0%.

,When assessing his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Randy Vasquez in the 15th percentile among all starters in MLB.

,According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the San Francisco Giants with a 20.2% underlying K%.

,Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gavin Sheets in today’s matchup.

,Compared to his seasonal figure of 12.2°, Jung Hoo Lee has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2.8°) in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

,Luis Arraez’s 0% Barrel% (an advanced standard to assess power) is in the 0th percentile this year.

,It may be best to expect better numbers for the San Diego Padres offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 7th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

,Given the 2.77 discrepancy between Trevor McDonald’s 1.80 ERA and his 4.57 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the league since the start of last season and figures to negatively regress the rest of the season.

,Trevor McDonald will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ty France today.

,Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Ty France today.

,Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Manny Machado today.

,Over the past 14 days, Manny Machado’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal figure of 90.5 mph to 87 mph.

,Xander Bogaerts will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

,Xander Bogaerts’s average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 88.9-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 80.4-mph over the past 7 days.

,Jackson Merrill’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last year to this one, going from 47.9% to 34.5%.

,Matt Chapman’s average exit velocity has declined recently; his 87.3-mph seasonal average has decreased to 82-mph over the last 14 days.

,Matt Chapman’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, decreasing from 15.2% to 7.9%.

,Over the last 14 days, Rafael Devers’s 4.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11%.

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