Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Padres vs Giants Series Game 3 Matchup Today

When estimating his batting average ability, Jackson Merrill is projected as the 17th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jackson Merrill is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Oracle Park profiles as the #3 field in baseball for lefty batting average, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Among all stadiums, Oracle Park’s RF dimensions are the shallowest.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 11.9-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-best of the day for batters.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 93rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jackson Merrill can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Patrick Bailey (the Giants’s expected catcher in today’s matchup) profiles as an elite pitch framer.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oracle Park as the worst stadium in the majors for walks.

Kyle Harrison is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #27 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Kyle Harrison in the 83rd percentile when assessing his strikeout ability.

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Kyle Harrison will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jung Hoo Lee in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Jung Hoo Lee is penciled in 2nd in the batting order today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jung Hoo Lee in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Jung Hoo Lee will have the handedness advantage against Nick Pivetta today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Xander Bogaerts is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.

The #3 field in MLB for boosting batting average to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.

Batting from the opposite that Kyle Harrison throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have the upper hand today.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Xander Bogaerts ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

This season, Xander Bogaerts has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 91.7 mph compared to last year’s 89.6 mph mark.

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Nick Pivetta in the 93rd percentile among all starting pitchers in the league.

The San Francisco Giants have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jerar Encarnacion, Heliot Ramos, Tyler Fitzgerald).

Considering that groundball hitters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Nick Pivetta (39% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this matchup with 3 GB hitters in the opposition’s projected lineup.

It may be sensible to expect better results for the San Francisco Giants offense in future games, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year.

The San Diego Padres infield defense grades out as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams today.

Elias Diaz will have the handedness advantage over Kyle Harrison in today’s matchup.

Elias Diaz’s launch angle this year (18°) is a significant increase over his 7.3° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Chapman as the majors’s 9th-best home run batter.

Matt Chapman is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this game.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Matt Chapman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Matt Chapman will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Matt Chapman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.3-mph to 96.3-mph in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Manny Machado in the 94th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Manny Machado is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.

Batting from the opposite that Kyle Harrison throws from, Manny Machado will have the upper hand today.

Manny Machado has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 12.6% seasonal rate to 17.9% in the past 14 days.

Manny Machado’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Over the last two weeks, Jake Cronenworth’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 91.3-mph over the course of the season to 96.6-mph in recent games.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 9th-best hitter in baseball.

Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison in today’s game.

Sporting a .342 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Fernando Tatis Jr. grades out in the 81st percentile for offensive skills.

Wilmer Flores is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today’s game.

Wilmer Flores will possess the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Wilmer Flores has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.2-mph to 88-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

Placing in the 85th percentile for power, Wilmer Flores has averaged 29.6 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Willy Adames ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Willy Adames is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.

When estimating his home run skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Willy Adames will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Willy Adames’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls this year (25.5°) is considerably better than his 22.2° figure last season.

Luis Arraez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.

Luis Arraez may have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the San Francisco Giants only has 1 same-handed RP.

Luis Arraez has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 86.9-mph average in the last week to his seasonal figure of 84.9-mph.

When it comes to his batting average talent, Luis Arraez is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the league by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The San Francisco Giants have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Gavin Sheets can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.

Gavin Sheets pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.5% — 85th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

In the last week’s worth of games, Gavin Sheets’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 11% up to 18.2%.

Gavin Sheets has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.3-mph average to last year’s 87.8-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jerar Encarnacion in the 95th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Jerar Encarnacion has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jerar Encarnacion in the 84th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Jerar Encarnacion will hold that advantage today.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jerar Encarnacion has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .294 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .345.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Heliot Ramos ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Heliot Ramos is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

Heliot Ramos has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Heliot Ramos will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 94th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the dish, Patrick Bailey will get to bat from his strong side against Nick Pivetta in this game.

Patrick Bailey will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Over the last 14 days, Patrick Bailey has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 7% to 18.8%.

Tyler Fitzgerald will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Over the past week, Tyler Fitzgerald’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.8-mph over the course of the season to 101.9-mph of late.

Checking in at the 82nd percentile, Tyler Fitzgerald sports a .339 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Fitzgerald in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Negative Match Player Stats with Padres vs Giants Series Game 3

Among all major league parks, the tallest fences are at Oracle Park.

Less offense (and more strikeouts) are strongly connected with lower temperatures, and the weather forecast for this matchup forecasts the 2nd-lowest temperature of all games on the slate today at 59°.

Kyle Harrison will have the handedness advantage against Jackson Merrill today.

Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Jackson Merrill has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89-mph dropping to 86.5-mph over the last two weeks.

Oracle Park’s elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to worse offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oracle Park as the 2nd-worst field in the game for left-handed home runs.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Kyle Harrison is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 10th-least of the day.

The San Francisco Giants outfield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest out of all the teams playing today.

Kyle Harrison has gone to his four-seam fastball 9.5% more often this season (67.2%) than he did last year (57.7%).

The San Diego Padres (18.3 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the least strikeout-heavy batting order of the day.

Oracle Park projects as the #29 stadium in MLB for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Jung Hoo Lee has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph dropping to 84.5-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

In the last week’s worth of games, Jung Hoo Lee’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 50%.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (9.0) provides evidence that Jung Hoo Lee has had positive variance on his side this year with his 14.5 actual HR/600.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 10.6°, Jung Hoo Lee’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls has dropped significantly in recent games (7.2° in the past 14 days).

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Xander Bogaerts in today’s game.

Xander Bogaerts’s launch angle of late (-8.2° in the last week) is considerably lower than his 11.7° seasonal angle.

Xander Bogaerts’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, decreasing from 13.8% to 10.1%.

The #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing home runs to right-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.

As a result of his reverse platoon split, Nick Pivetta will have a disadvantage squaring off against 7 hitters in the projected offense of the same handedness today.

Nick Pivetta will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

Nick Pivetta has utilized his slider 9.1% less often this season (20.1%) than he did last year (29.2%).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Nick Pivetta in the 84th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent level.

Nick Pivetta is an extreme flyball pitcher (39% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #27 HR venue among all major league parks in this game.

Elias Diaz’s BABIP talent is projected in the 10th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Elias Diaz is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this game.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Elias Diaz in today’s matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Matt Chapman will be at a disadvantage today.

Typically, bats like Matt Chapman who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Nick Pivetta.

Matt Chapman’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined in recent games, decreasing from 44.2% on the season to 34.5% over the past two weeks.

Manny Machado will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Jake Cronenworth is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.

Kyle Harrison will hold the platoon advantage against Jake Cronenworth in today’s game.

Jake Cronenworth will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Fernando Tatis Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Over the last 14 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.4% down to 2.7%.

Fernando Tatis Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 48.8% to 37.6%.

Wilmer Flores’s BABIP talent is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Nick Pivetta will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Wilmer Flores in today’s matchup.

Typically, hitters like Wilmer Flores who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Nick Pivetta.

Batting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Willy Adames will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

Extreme flyball bats like Willy Adames tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

Willy Adames has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% over the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Arraez in the 0th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Batting from the same side that Kyle Harrison throws from, Luis Arraez faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lowers hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Luis Arraez in today’s matchup.

Luis Arraez’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.9-mph EV last season has dropped off to 84.9-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gavin Sheets in the 23rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Kyle Harrison throws from, Gavin Sheets will be at a disadvantage today.

Jerar Encarnacion is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

Nick Pivetta will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jerar Encarnacion in today’s game.

Jerar Encarnacion’s 6.4° launch angle (a reliable metric to measure a batter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is among the lowest in the majors: 15th percentile.

Batting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Heliot Ramos faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Heliot Ramos’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off lately; his 95.5-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 81-mph in the past week.

There has been a significant decline in Heliot Ramos’s launch angle from last year’s 10.3° to 7.3° this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Patrick Bailey in the 20th percentile when assessing his batting average skill.

Patrick Bailey is projected to bat 8th in the batting order in this game.

Patrick Bailey’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 90.7-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 86.3-mph in the last 7 days.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Patrick Bailey ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Tyler Fitzgerald is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this game.

Batting from the same side that Nick Pivetta throws from, Tyler Fitzgerald meets a tough challenge today.

Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 87.4-mph EV last year has dropped to 82.8-mph.

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