Orioles @ Giants Matchup Details

Positives for the Baltimore Orioles Game Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

The #3 venue in the game for boosting batting average to LHB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.

Oracle Park has the shallowest right field dimensions among all parks.

The wind projects to be blowing out to RF at 15.1-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for bats.

Colton Cowser has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 13% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 90th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Over the past 14 days, Colton Cowser’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.7-mph over the course of the season to 99.8-mph lately.

Oracle Park projects as the #3 venue in baseball for right-handed batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Luis Matos will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Luis Matos has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 7.6% seasonal rate to 20% over the last two weeks.

Compared to last year, Luis Matos has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 11.8% to 21% this season.

In the past two weeks, Luis Matos’s 40% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 21%.

When assessing his home run talent, Coby Mayo ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Coby Mayo will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his batting average, Coby Mayo has suffered from bad luck this year. His .191 BA falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .223.

Coby Mayo has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .268 figure is considerably lower than his .300 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Casey Schmitt will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Over the past 14 days, Casey Schmitt has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 25.4° compared to his seasonal mark of 16.3°.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.342) implies that Casey Schmitt has been unlucky this year with his .317 actual wOBA.

Jackson Holliday’s BABIP ability is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jackson Holliday is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Extreme flyball bats like Jackson Holliday usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Robbie Ray.

Jackson Holliday’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (17.8° over the past two weeks) is considerably better than his 13.7° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jung Hoo Lee in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Jung Hoo Lee will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dean Kremer today.

Jung Hoo Lee will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Jung Hoo Lee has exhibited good plate discipline this year, ranking in the 91st percentile with a 1.43 K/BB rate.

Over the past week, Samuel Basallo’s maximum exit velocity (a favorable indicator of recent form and raw power) has been 112.1-mph, which qualifies as one of the hardest-hit balls in the league.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Ryan Mountcastle ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Ryan Mountcastle is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Ryan Mountcastle will have an edge in today’s game.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Ryan Mountcastle’s BABIP skill is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Tallying 94.5 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Dean Kremer checks in at the 91st percentile.

Dean Kremer’s four-seam fastball utilization has decreased by 5.9% from last season to this one (32.1% to 26.2%) .

Oracle Park grades out as the #30 park in Major League Baseball for walks, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

Dominic Smith is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.

Dominic Smith will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dean Kremer in today’s game.

Dominic Smith will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Matt Chapman projects as the 16th-best home run hitter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Matt Chapman is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card today.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Matt Chapman will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Matt Chapman has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 10.9% seasonal rate to 40% over the past week.

The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will get to bat from his better side (0) today against Robbie Ray.

Dylan Carlson has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 90.6-mph average to last season’s 88.3-mph EV.

Dylan Carlson’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this season (23.1°) is a significant increase over his 19.7° angle last year.

Dylan Carlson’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (29.2° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is a considerable increase over his 23.1° seasonal figure.

When it comes to his home run skill, Willy Adames ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Willy Adames is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

In the past 7 days, Willy Adames’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.6% up to 27.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Robbie Ray’s 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a big 1.2-mph fall off from last season’s 94-mph mark.

Robbie Ray has been lucky this year, compiling a 2.93 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 4.42 — a 1.49 discrepancy.

Robbie Ray has been one of the luckiest hurlers in MLB on balls in play this year with a .245 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Robbie Ray in the 93rd percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

Robbie Ray has averaged 96 adjusted pitches per start this year, ranking in the 96th percentile.

The Baltimore Orioles have 3 hitters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jackson Holliday, Colton Cowser, Coby Mayo).

Jeremiah Jackson is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

Hitting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Jeremiah Jackson will have an advantage in today’s game.

Jeremiah Jackson has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

Jeremiah Jackson has been hot lately, cruising to a .345 wOBA in the last 14 days.

Emmanuel Rivera has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (95% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.

Hitting from the opposite that Robbie Ray throws from, Emmanuel Rivera will have an edge in today’s game.

Emmanuel Rivera has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.

Heliot Ramos has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Heliot Ramos will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Patrick Bailey will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Dean Kremer in this game.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Patrick Bailey will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Patrick Bailey’s launch angle in recent games (22.9° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is considerably higher than his 15.4° seasonal angle.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 18th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Gunnar Henderson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Gunnar Henderson has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 100.2-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 92-mph.

Negatives with the San Francisco Giants Game Today

Colton Cowser is penciled in 6th in the batting order in this game.

Built just 8 feet above sea level, Oracle Park has one of the lowest altitudes in Major League Baseball, which generally leads to worse offense.

According to the weather forecast, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 4th-best for pitching on the slate.

Hitting from the same side that Robbie Ray throws from, Colton Cowser meets a tough challenge today.

Colton Cowser will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

The #2 park in baseball for suppressing home runs to LHB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.

In Major League Baseball, the tallest fences are at Oracle Park.

Luis Matos’s BABIP skill is projected in the 11th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Luis Matos is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

Hitting from the same side that Dean Kremer throws from, Luis Matos will have a disadvantage in today’s matchup.

Oracle Park ranks as the #28 park in baseball for righty home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Coby Mayo is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game.

This year, Coby Mayo has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 31% of his appearances when starting against lefty on the mound.

Typically, batters like Coby Mayo who hit a lot of flyballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Robbie Ray.

Casey Schmitt is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.

Dean Kremer will hold the platoon advantage over Casey Schmitt in today’s game.

Casey Schmitt has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 7.8% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week.

Hitting from the same side that Robbie Ray throws from, Jackson Holliday will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Jackson Holliday will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Jackson Holliday has struggled with his Barrel% of late; his 8.7% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past week.

Jung Hoo Lee has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Jung Hoo Lee’s average exit velocity has fallen off this season; his 88.9-mph EV last season has fallen off to 86.7-mph.

In the last two weeks, Jung Hoo Lee’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 88.7 mph to 82.6 mph.

When estimating his home run talent, Jung Hoo Lee ranks in the 9th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Samuel Basallo is penciled in 9th on the lineup card today.

Robbie Ray will have the handedness advantage over Samuel Basallo in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Samuel Basallo in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ryan Mountcastle in today’s matchup.

Over the last week, Ryan Mountcastle’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.5% down to 0%.

Over the past week, Ryan Mountcastle’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Oracle Park as the 5th-worst venue in the game for strikeouts.

Dean Kremer will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

It may be smart to expect better numbers for the San Francisco Giants offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in baseball this year.

Dean Kremer allowed a staggering 5 earned runs in his last GS.

The 7.6% Barrel% of the San Francisco Giants grades them out as the #26 offense in baseball this year by this standard.

In the last week’s worth of games, Rafael Devers’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 14.9% down to 8.3%.

Rafael Devers’s launch angle lately (-4.8° in the last 7 days) is a significant dropoff from his 12.1° seasonal figure.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.346) suggests that Rafael Devers has been lucky this year with his .368 actual wOBA.

Dominic Smith’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off of late; his 90.1-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 81.2-mph over the last 7 days.

Over the last 7 days, Dominic Smith’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.9%.

In terms of his batting average, Dominic Smith has had some very good luck this year. His .277 figure has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .254.

Dominic Smith has struggled with his Barrel%; his 10.7% rate last year has decreased to 3.8% this season.

Hitting from the same side that Dean Kremer throws from, Matt Chapman has a tough challenge today.

As it relates to his home runs, Matt Chapman has had some very good luck this year. His 25.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 20.7.

Matt Chapman has compiled a .232 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 19th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Dylan Carlson is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Dylan Carlson in today’s game.

Sporting a .270 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Dylan Carlson has performed in the 25th percentile for offensive ability.

Hitting from the same side that Dean Kremer throws from, Willy Adames faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Posting a .228 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Willy Adames is ranked in the 15th percentile.

Grading out in the 12th percentile, Willy Adames has notched a .222 batting average this year.

Patrick Bailey, the Giants’s expected catcher today, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Robbie Ray is an extreme flyball pitcher (40% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is fortunate enough to be pitching in the #27 HR venue among all major league stadiums in today’s game.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jeremiah Jackson ranks in the 24th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jeremiah Jackson in today’s matchup.

Jeremiah Jackson’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 92.7-mph seasonal figure has dropped to 89.9-mph in the past two weeks.

Emmanuel Rivera has been pinch hit for 31% of the time when starting against a lefty on the mound since the start of last season.

Emmanuel Rivera will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

This season, Emmanuel Rivera’s Barrel% has decreased significantly, dropping from 8% last year to just 1.7% this year.

As it relates to his home run talent, Emmanuel Rivera ranks in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Dean Kremer will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Heliot Ramos in today’s game.

Heliot Ramos has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 8.9% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

Heliot Ramos’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 92.8-mph seasonal average has dropped off to 67.3-mph over the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Patrick Bailey in the 18th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Patrick Bailey is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this game.

Patrick Bailey has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 5.8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last 14 days.

Hitting from the same side that Robbie Ray throws from, Gunnar Henderson will have a tough challenge today.

Gunnar Henderson will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Gunnar Henderson’s launch angle recently (-1.5° in the past week’s worth of games) is quite a bit lower than his 9.5° seasonal angle.

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