Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Marlins vs Rays Series Game 3 Matchup Today

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is predicted to have the highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 88,°.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this contest, the 5th-most-favorable of the day for bats.

George M. Steinbrenner Field has the shortest fences in Major League Baseball.

Eric Wagaman has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 10.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is considerably lower than his 16.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Curtis Mead has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Connor Gillispie throws from, Curtis Mead encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Curtis Mead has an 88th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Connor Norby in the 97th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Connor Norby’s true offensive talent to be a .313, implying that he has been unlucky this year given the .025 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .288 wOBA.

Connor Norby has compiled a .321 BABIP since the start of last season, grading out in the 82nd percentile.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (18.3) implies that Connor Norby has experienced some negative variance this year with his 11.3 actual HR/600.

Agustin Ramirez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today’s game.

Agustin Ramirez has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences today.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Christopher Morel, Jose Caballero, Brandon Lowe).

It is anticipated that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Roberto Ortiz) calling pitches in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Junior Caminero is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Hitting from the same side that Connor Gillispie throws from, Junior Caminero will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Liam Hicks is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 89% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year.

Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Liam Hicks will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Liam Hicks has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 92.9-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 90.1-mph.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Yandy Diaz ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.

When it comes to his batting average ability, Yandy Diaz is projected as the 14th-best hitter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Connor Gillispie will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Yandy Diaz in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Brandon Lowe stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

Jesus Sanchez will hold the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Drew Rasmussen in the 78th percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.

Because flyball hitters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Drew Rasmussen (47.9% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 4 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected offense.

Drew Rasmussen will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to improve all of his stats across the board.

Drew Rasmussen’s 94.7-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 78th percentile among all starting pitchers.

Drew Rasmussen has had some very good luck with his ERA this year; his 2.14 mark is deflated compared to his 3.42 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

When assessing his home run talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Hitting from the same side that Connor Gillispie throws from, Christopher Morel faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christopher Morel in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Christopher Morel will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Josh Lowe in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Josh Lowe is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Josh Lowe stands a good chance of holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

Otto Lopez is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.

Otto Lopez has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 5th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Xavier Edwards is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

The switch-hitting Xavier Edwards will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Drew Rasmussen.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xavier Edwards in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Batting from the same side that Connor Gillispie throws from, Jose Caballero will have a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Caballero will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Jose Caballero’s average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 85.8-mph now compared to just 83.5-mph then.

Jake Mangum is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Jake Mangum will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side against Connor Gillispie in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

When it comes to his BABIP talent, Dane Myers is projected as the 11th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Dane Myers has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.9-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal 92.7-mph figure.

Ranking in the 89th percentile, Dane Myers has posted a .342 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

Negative Match Player Stats with Marlins vs Rays Series Game 3

Eric Wagaman has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (87% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.

George M. Steinbrenner Field profiles as the #24 ballpark in Major League Baseball for righty batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Hitting from the same side that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Eric Wagaman meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

Eric Wagaman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 97th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

The Tampa Bay Rays infield defense grades out as the 5th-strongest out of every team today.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Eric Wagaman in today’s game.

Eric Wagaman has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.6% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

George M. Steinbrenner Field profiles as the #23 park in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

With a .119 Isolated Power (ISO) since the start of last season, Curtis Mead is ranked in the 22nd percentile.

By putting up a 4.45 K/BB rate since the start of last season, Curtis Mead has shown poor plate discipline, placing in the 25th percentile.

Connor Norby is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the same side that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Connor Norby encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Connor Norby pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Connor Norby in today’s matchup.

In the past week’s worth of games, Connor Norby’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.4% down to 0%.

Hitting from the same side that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Agustin Ramirez will have a tough matchup today.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Agustin Ramirez in today’s matchup.

Over the past 7 days, Agustin Ramirez’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.6% down to 0%.

Agustin Ramirez has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph dropping to 82.7-mph over the last 7 days.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 6.4°, Agustin Ramirez has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.4°) in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Anthony Veneziano in the 20th percentile as it relates to his strikeout ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Anthony Veneziano to have a pitch count in today’s game, projecting a maximum of 61 pitches.

With 8 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Anthony Veneziano has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today’s matchup.

Among all major league stadiums, George M. Steinbrenner Field’s centerfield fences are the 5th-deepest.

Junior Caminero has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 37.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is considerably higher than his 27.8 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

With a 3.79 K/BB rate this year, Junior Caminero has displayed poor plate discipline, checking in at the 22nd percentile.

Junior Caminero has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .348 figure is a good deal higher than his .319 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Placing in the 23rd percentile, Junior Caminero sits with a .264 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Liam Hicks in the 18th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.

Liam Hicks has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 19% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles George M. Steinbrenner Field as the 6th-worst park in the majors for LHB batting average.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Liam Hicks in today’s matchup.

Liam Hicks has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 5.8% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week.

By putting up a .251 BABIP this year, Yandy Diaz is ranked in the 15th percentile.

Brandon Lowe will have the handedness advantage over Connor Gillispie today.

With a 3.8 K/BB rate this year, Brandon Lowe has shown poor plate discipline, placing in the 21st percentile.

Brandon Lowe has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 30.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is considerably higher than his 25.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

In today’s matchup, Jesus Sanchez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 37.5% rate (95th percentile).

Extreme groundball batters like Jesus Sanchez tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jesus Sanchez today.

Jesus Sanchez’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 94.5-mph seasonal mark has fallen off to 82-mph over the last week.

Jesus Sanchez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last season to this one, decreasing from 10.9% to 7%.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Drew Rasmussen is projected to throw 82 pitches in today’s game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 10th-least of the day.

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Drew Rasmussen has relied on his fastball a lot this year, though: 58.6% of the time, ranking in the 100th percentile.

Drew Rasmussen projects as the 17th-best pitcher in Major League Baseball currently, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The 4th-weakest projected offense of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability belongs to the Miami Marlins.

It may be best to expect weaker performance for the Miami Marlins offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes they are the 7th-luckiest offense in the game this year.

The #6 ballpark in MLB for suppressing batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is George M. Steinbrenner Field.

Christopher Morel is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 78% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.

Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Christopher Morel’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 94.7-mph EV last year has dropped to 92.2-mph.

Ranking in the 23rd percentile, Christopher Morel has posted a .286 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) since the start of last season.

Grading out in the 22nd percentile, Christopher Morel has put up a .331 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year.

Josh Lowe will hold the platoon advantage against Connor Gillispie today.

Josh Lowe has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.3%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 7th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Over the last two weeks, Josh Lowe’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 94.9 mph to 86 mph.

In the last week’s worth of games, Josh Lowe’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 7.3%.

Josh Lowe’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 14.7% to 7.3%.

Drew Rasmussen will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Otto Lopez today.

Extreme flyball batters like Otto Lopez generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.

Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Otto Lopez today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 18th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Otto Lopez has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past 7 days.

When it comes to his home run skill, Xavier Edwards ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

In today’s matchup, Xavier Edwards is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41.6% rate (99th percentile).

Typically, hitters like Xavier Edwards who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Drew Rasmussen.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Xavier Edwards today.

From last season to this one, Xavier Edwards’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 87.1 mph to 84.7 mph.

Jose Caballero’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 19th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jose Caballero is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

In today’s game, Jose Caballero is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 7th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.1% rate (98th percentile).

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Jose Caballero ranks in the 25th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .295.

By putting up a 8.600 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year , Jose Caballero is positioned in the 11th percentile for power.

Jose Caballero has averaged 5.6 homers per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 14th percentile for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 3rd percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Jake Mangum’s average exit velocity has fallen off lately; his 86.6-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 80.8-mph in the past two weeks.

Jake Mangum’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined of late, falling from 28% on the season to 21.4% over the past two weeks.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.283) provides evidence that Jake Mangum has been lucky this year with his .314 actual wOBA.

Dane Myers is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

Drew Rasmussen will hold the platoon advantage over Dane Myers in today’s game.

Dane Myers hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.9% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

Extreme flyball batters like Dane Myers tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Dane Myers today.

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