Marlins vs D-Backs match player stats | 2026 Series Game 3 Wednesday, September 16th

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MIA @ ARI

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Marlins @ D-Backs Series Game 3 Matchup Details

Teams : Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks
Series Game 3
Date : Todays Game is on Wednesday, September 16th
Time : 16/09/26 21:40:00 PM EST First Pitch

Positives for the Miami Marlins Series Game 3 Game Today

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report calls for for the 3rd-most favorable hitting conditions on the slate today.

,Pavin Smith will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Gusto in today’s game.

,Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Pavin Smith will hold that advantage today.

,Pavin Smith has been unlucky this year, putting up a .216 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .307 — a .091 disparity.

,Javier Sanoja has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (80% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th in the lineup today.

,The #3 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

,In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Javier Sanoja’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.2-mph over the course of the season to 92.4-mph recently.

,By putting up a 1.42 K/BB rate this year, Javier Sanoja has demonstrated good plate discipline, checking in at the 91st percentile.

,As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Ketel Marte ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Ketel Marte is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 3rd-best field in baseball for boosting offensive stats to LHB.

,Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest elevation among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.

,The #3 park in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to righties, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Chase Field.

,Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,Nolan Arenado has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 85.1-mph to 93.9-mph over the past 7 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

,Kyle Stowers is penciled in 1st in the batting order in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Chase Field as the 3rd-best field in the game for lefty batting average.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Griffin Conine in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

,Griffin Conine is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.

,Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Griffin Conine will have the upper hand in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

,The Miami Marlins have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Heriberto Hernandez, Griffin Conine).

,Chris Segal projects as a Pitchers Umpire and is scheduled to be behind the plate in this game.

,Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics in all categories, and Merrill Kelly will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Merrill Kelly’s 2365-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 76th percentile out of all SPs.

,Merrill Kelly has had some very poor luck with his strikeouts this year, compiling a 6.04 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.14 — a 1.1 K/9 gap.

,Geraldo Perdomo is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.

,Geraldo Perdomo will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

,Based on Statcast data, Geraldo Perdomo is in the 85th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .354.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez as the 10th-best batter in Major League Baseball when it comes to his batting average talent.

,Otto Lopez is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

,In the last two weeks, Nolan Arenado’s 23.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 17.6%.

,Hitting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Jakob Marsee will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,Jakob Marsee will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.

,In the past week’s worth of games, Jakob Marsee’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.7-mph over the course of the season to 97.5-mph recently.

,As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Lars Nootbaar is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

,Heriberto Hernandez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

,When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Corbin Carroll ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Corbin Carroll is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

,When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Gabriel Moreno ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Gabriel Moreno is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

,Gabriel Moreno will possess the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his stats.

,The 3rd-best projected lineup of all teams today in terms of overall offensive ability is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

,It may be best to expect stronger performance for the Arizona Diamondbacks offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

,Chase Field profiles as the #4 park in MLB for batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,The Arizona Diamondbacks have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Ryan Gusto in this matchup.

,Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Joe Mack will have the upper hand today.

,Joe Mack may have the upper hand against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Arizona Diamondbacks only has 1 same-handed RP.

,Joe Mack has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.6-mph to 94.7-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

,Joe Mack’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved lately, increasing from 13.4% on the season to 40% in the last week’s worth of games.

,Batting from the opposite that Merrill Kelly throws from, Kyle Stowers will have an advantage today.

,Jakob Marsee’s launch angle this season (17.3°) is considerably higher than his 10.9° angle last year.

,Among all SPs, Ryan Gusto’s fastball spin rate of 2400 rpm ranks in the 78th percentile this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Javier Sanoja in the 94th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.

,As it relates to his home run skill, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Considering the 0.59 deviation between Merrill Kelly’s 4.97 ERA and his 5.57 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball this year and should perform worse in future games.

,With a 5.57 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that deals with the things a pitcher can most influence), Merrill Kelly falls in the 6th percentile.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

,Lars Nootbaar will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Gusto in today’s matchup.

,As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Otto Lopez ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Otto Lopez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, going from 14% on the season to 17.6% in the past 7 days.

,Heriberto Hernandez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.7-mph average to last season’s 93.6-mph mark.

,Ketel Marte will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should bolster all of his stats.

,Merrill Kelly has tallied 16.9 outs per outing this year, placing in the 77th percentile.

,Corbin Carroll will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Gusto in today’s game.

,Nolan Arenado has paced 27 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year, grading out in the 81st percentile for power.

,Posting a 0.96 K/BB rate this year, Geraldo Perdomo has shown good plate discipline, grading out in the 99th percentile.

Negatives with the Arizona Diamondbacks Series Game 3 Game Today

Pavin Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (54% of the time), but he is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in this game.

,20% of the time that Pavin Smith has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 6th-worst field in the majors for left-handed home runs.

,The 3rd-deepest centerfield dimensions among all major league parks are found in Chase Field.

,The league’s 10th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at Chase Field.

,When it comes to his home run talent, Javier Sanoja ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Javier Sanoja meets a tough challenge in today’s game.

,The Arizona Diamondbacks outfield defense grades out as the 4th-best out of every team playing today.

,As a switch-hitter who is weaker from the 0 side of the dish, Ketel Marte will bat from his weak side against Ryan Gusto today.

,Ketel Marte pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38.2% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards baseball’s 3rd-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

,Among all the teams in action today, the 5th-best infield defense is that of the Miami Marlins.

,Ketel Marte has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 4.8% in the past 7 days.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

,Nolan Arenado is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today’s game.

,Hitting from the same side that Ryan Gusto throws from, Nolan Arenado will be in a tough position today.

,Kyle Stowers pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.1% — 82nd percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

,Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Kyle Stowers in today’s matchup.

,Kyle Stowers has taken a step back with his Barrel%; his 19.5% rate last year has dropped to 12.6% this year.

,Sporting a 3.21 K/BB rate this year, Kyle Stowers has shown bad plate discipline, grading out in the 21st percentile.

,This year, Griffin Conine has been pulled from the game early in 18% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

,In today’s matchup, Griffin Conine is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.2% rate (92nd percentile).

,Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Griffin Conine in today’s matchup.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Merrill Kelly in the 22nd percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.

,Chase Field projects as the #29 park in the league for strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Merrill Kelly has gone to his cut-fastball 7.2% less often this year (13.4%) than he did last year (20.6%).

,When estimating his home run skill, Geraldo Perdomo ranks in the 11th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,In the last 14 days, Geraldo Perdomo’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 88.5 mph to 83.3 mph.

,Hitting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Otto Lopez will not have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

,In today’s game, Otto Lopez is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 36.5% rate (94th percentile).

,Playing on the road generally weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Otto Lopez in today’s matchup.

,Otto Lopez’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 91-mph seasonal average has dropped to 86.6-mph over the last 14 days.

,Jakob Marsee is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

,Jakob Marsee will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

,This year, Lars Nootbaar has been pinch hit for in 16% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

,Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 3rd-deepest CF fences in today’s game.

,There has been a significant decline in Lars Nootbaar’s launch angle from last season’s 15.9° to 9.6° this year.

,Batting from the same side that Merrill Kelly throws from, Heriberto Hernandez will be at a disadvantage today.

,Heriberto Hernandez hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 89th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB’s 3rd-deepest CF fences today.

,Heriberto Hernandez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

,In the last 7 days, Heriberto Hernandez’s 31.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 38.8%.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pavin Smith in the 23rd percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

,Corbin Carroll pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 81st percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

,Corbin Carroll’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined lately, going from 38.6% on the season to 25% over the past 14 days.

,Chase Field projects as the #24 stadium in Major League Baseball for RHB home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Ryan Gusto will have the handedness advantage against Gabriel Moreno in today’s matchup.

,Gabriel Moreno has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

,Gabriel Moreno has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 7.7% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last 7 days.

,It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ryan Gusto has utilized his secondary offerings 11.4% more often this year (59.7%) than he did last year (48.3%).

,Joe Mack’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 20th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Joe Mack is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

,This year, Joe Mack has been pinch hit for in 17% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Gusto to throw 81 pitches in today’s game (6th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

,Compared to his seasonal angle of 9.6°, Lars Nootbaar has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2.3°) over the last two weeks.

,Javier Sanoja will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

,Javier Sanoja’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined lately, going from 12.9% on the season to 0% in the last week.

,Checking in at the 19th percentile, Jakob Marsee has notched a .225 batting average this year.

,Geraldo Perdomo’s launch angle in recent games (2.7° over the last week) is a significant dropoff from his 14.5° seasonal figure.

,Geraldo Perdomo’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last year to this one, falling from 20.2% to 14.7%.

,Grading out in the 8th percentile, Ketel Marte sports a .250 BABIP this year.

,The Miami Marlins have been the 2nd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse going forward,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Griffin Conine’s true offensive talent to be a .312, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .051 deviation between that figure and his actual .363 wOBA.

,In the last two weeks, Gabriel Moreno’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal average of 90.6 mph to 87.1 mph.

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