Marlins @ Braves Matchup Details

Positives for the Miami Marlins Game Today

When assessing his home run ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Matt Olson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.

,The 3rd-shallowest centerfield dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Truist Park.

,Built 981 feet above sea level, Truist Park has the 3rd-highest elevation in the league, which often leads to higher offensive output.

,As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 3rd-most suitable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Truist Park as the 5th-best ballpark in the league for boosting offensive stats to LHB.

,Hitting from the opposite that Grant Holmes throws from, Joe Mack will have an edge in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Griffin Conine in the 85th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

,Griffin Conine is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup.

,Ozzie Albies is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Yastrzemski in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

,The #5 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Javier Sanoja in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

,The #5 stadium in baseball for boosting offensive stats to right-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.

,Javier Sanoja’s launch angle lately (27.1° over the past 14 days) is considerably better than his 13.4° seasonal angle.

,When estimating his batting average skill, Otto Lopez is projected as the 6th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Otto Lopez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.

,Truist Park profiles as the #5 field in the majors for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

,Mike Yastrzemski will have the handedness advantage against Ryan Gusto in today’s matchup.

,Jim Jarvis will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Gusto in today’s game.

,Owen Caissie’s BABIP skill is projected in the 97th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Owen Caissie is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 91% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

,When assessing his overall offensive talent, Drake Baldwin ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Drake Baldwin is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.

,Batting from the opposite that Ryan Gusto throws from, Drake Baldwin will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

,When it comes to his home run talent, Heriberto Hernandez ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Heriberto Hernandez has made notable strides with his Barrel% of late, improving his 12.9% seasonal rate to 17.9% over the last 14 days.

,Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 6th-best hitter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Ronald Acuna Jr. is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

,Otto Lopez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards the league’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,The Miami Marlins have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress in future games,Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics across the board, and Grant Holmes will hold that advantage today.

,Checking in at the 77th percentile, Grant Holmes notched a 12% Swinging Strike rate this year.

,The 7% Barrel% of the Miami Marlins ranks them as the #26 group of hitters in the majors this year by this stat.

,The Miami Marlins have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Kyle Stowers, Griffin Conine, Heriberto Hernandez, Owen Caissie).

,Grant Holmes has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 7.68 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.66 — a 0.98 K/9 deviation.

,Heriberto Hernandez has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.6-mph average to last season’s 93.6-mph figure.

,When estimating his home run talent, Austin Riley ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Austin Riley hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB’s 5th-shallowest CF fences in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heriberto Hernandez in the 89th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

,As it relates to his home run talent, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Kyle Stowers is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

,When estimating his overall offensive ability, Austin Riley ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

,Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Austin Riley will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 95th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

,Michael Harris II is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

,Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Ozzie Albies will hold that advantage in today’s game.

,Xavier Edwards is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today’s game.

,As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the dish, Xavier Edwards will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Grant Holmes in today’s game.

,When assessing his batting average skill, Xavier Edwards is projected as the 19th-best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Ryan Gusto has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 12.1% more often this year (60.4%) than he did last year (48.3%).

,Out of all SPs, Ryan Gusto’s fastball spin rate of 2410 rpm is in the 80th percentile this year.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

,Joe Mack has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 101.3-mph average in the last 14 days to his seasonal EV of 94.6-mph.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 86th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

,When estimating his home run skill, Owen Caissie ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Owen Caissie will hold the platoon advantage against Grant Holmes today.

,Xavier Edwards has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 89.3-mph average to last year’s 85.6-mph mark.

,Javier Sanoja has exhibited favorable plate discipline this year, checking in at the 91st percentile with a 1.44 K/BB rate.

,Jim Jarvis will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

,Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Ronald Acuna Jr. will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

,With a 1.36 difference between Ryan Gusto’s 5.31 ERA and his 3.94 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the unluckiest pitchers in MLB this year and ought to see better results in the future.

,Ryan Gusto has been one of the unluckiest hurlers in the majors on balls in play this year with a .312 BABIP and figures to see that luck normalize going forward.

,As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Michael Harris II ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Negatives with the Atlanta Braves Game Today

Despite posting a .373 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Matt Olson has been very fortunate given the .019 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .354.

,Joe Mack is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

,When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Joe Mack has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 12% of the time.

,Joe Mack will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

,In the last week, Joe Mack’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10% down to 0%.

,Joe Mack’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, falling from 11.4% on the season to 0% in the past week.

,Griffin Conine has been pinch hit for 27% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.

,Griffin Conine will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

,Griffin Conine has been lucky this year, notching a .386 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .304 — a .082 deviation.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 6th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

,As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Ozzie Albies will bat from his bad side against Ryan Gusto in today’s game.

,Ozzie Albies has recorded a .283 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season, ranking in the 12th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,In notching a .219 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Ozzie Albies grades out in the 13th percentile.

,Checking in at the 15th percentile, Ozzie Albies has notched a .261 BABIP this year.

,Mike Yastrzemski is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this game.

,Mike Yastrzemski has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 22% of the time when starting against a righty on the mound this year.

,Grading out in the 24th percentile, Mike Yastrzemski has put up a .226 batting average this year.

,Griffin Conine’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 24th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,Javier Sanoja is projected to bat 9th in the batting order today.

,Grant Holmes will have the handedness advantage over Javier Sanoja in today’s game.

,Javier Sanoja pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.7% — 75th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 3rd-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

,Playing on the road typically lowers batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Javier Sanoja today.

,Javier Sanoja has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.7-mph dropping to 84.5-mph in the last two weeks.

,Hitting from the same side that Grant Holmes throws from, Otto Lopez will have a disadvantage today.

,Playing on the road generally diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Otto Lopez in today’s matchup.

,Otto Lopez has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph dropping to 86.4-mph over the last two weeks.

,Despite posting a .356 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Otto Lopez has experienced some positive variance given the .022 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .334.

,Otto Lopez’s 8.2° launch angle (a reliable stat to study a hitter’s ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the lowest in Major League Baseball: 13th percentile.

,Jim Jarvis is projected to hit 9th in the batting order today.

,When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Jim Jarvis has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 14% of the time.

,Over the past week, Jim Jarvis’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal EV of 87.2 mph to 83.1 mph.

,Jim Jarvis’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased recently, decreasing from 9.4% on the season to 0% over the past week.

,Jim Jarvis has been cold recently, posting a 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to evaluate power) over the last two weeks.

,41% of the time that Owen Caissie has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

,Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Owen Caissie today.

,Based on Statcast data, Owen Caissie grades out in the 15th percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) since the start of last season at .240.

,Owen Caissie has put up a .190 Expected Batting Average since the start of last season, ranking in the 16th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

,With a 5.36 K/BB rate this year, Owen Caissie has displayed poor plate discipline, ranking in the 3rd percentile.

,Drake Baldwin has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) but may find it hard to clear the game’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

,In the last 7 days, Drake Baldwin’s 5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.7%.

,Heriberto Hernandez has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (73% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup today.

,Hitting from the same side that Grant Holmes throws from, Heriberto Hernandez will have a tough challenge today.

,Heriberto Hernandez pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 86th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

,Heriberto Hernandez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

,Among all parks, Truist Park’s LF fences are the 3rd-deepest.

,Hitting from the same side that Ryan Gusto throws from, Ronald Acuna Jr. will have a disadvantage today.

,Ronald Acuna Jr.’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last year to this one, going from 46.9% to 38.8%.

,In the last 14 days, Ronald Acuna Jr.’s 33.3% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 38.8%.

,The #7 ballpark in the game for boosting base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.

,The Miami Marlins have 6 batters in the projected batting order that will hold the platoon advantage over Grant Holmes in today’s game.

,Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Grant Holmes has utilized his secondary pitches 9.6% less often this season (57.1%) than he did last year (66.7%).

,Austin Riley is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

,Ryan Gusto will hold the platoon advantage over Austin Riley today.

,From last season to this one, Austin Riley’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes home runs (23° to 34°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 16.6% to 12.9%.

,In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Austin Riley’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.9%.

,Checking in at the 15th percentile, Austin Riley has posted a .282 wOBA (widely regarded as the top indicator of overall offense) this year.

,Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Kyle Stowers today.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jim Jarvis in the 6th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

,Michael Harris II’s average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 90.7-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 84-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

,Michael Harris II’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, decreasing from 13.8% to 10%.

,Michael Harris II’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off in recent games, falling from 10% on the season to 7% over the past two weeks.

,By putting up a 4.93 K/BB rate this year, Michael Harris II has shown weak plate discipline, grading out in the 5th percentile.

,From last year to this one, Matt Olson’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 46.6% to 39.2%.

,When estimating his home run talent, Xavier Edwards ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,In today’s game, Xavier Edwards is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 3rd-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 39.2% rate (98th percentile).

,Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Xavier Edwards in today’s game.

,In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Xavier Edwards’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen from his seasonal average of 89.3 mph to 81.7 mph.

,Xavier Edwards has been lucky this year, putting up a .333 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .315 — a .018 difference.

,The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Gusto to throw 82 pitches in this game (9th-least of all pitchers today), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

,The Atlanta Braves have 7 bats in the projected offense that will have the handedness advantage over Ryan Gusto today.

,Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Ryan Gusto today.

,When it comes to his home run skill, Javier Sanoja ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

,The Atlanta Braves projected batting order ranks as the strongest on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill.

,Miami’s 88.2-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in the game: #24 overall.

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