Series Game 2 Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Mariners vs Twins Series Game 2 Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Target Field as the 9th-best field in the league for LHB batting average.

Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest elevation among all major league parks, which often leads to higher offensive output.

Dominic Canzone will have the handedness advantage against Chris Paddack in today’s game.

Out of every team on the slate today, the 4th-weakest infield defense belongs to the Minnesota Twins.

Dominic Canzone’s launch angle of late (29° in the past 7 days) is significantly higher than his 14.3° seasonal angle.

Target Field profiles as the #7 venue in the game for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Dominic Canzone has hit 29.5 long-balls per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, checking in at the 94th percentile for power.

When estimating his home run talent, Dominic Canzone ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brooks Lee is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 60% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

The switch-hitting Brooks Lee will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Luis Castillo… and even better, Castillo has a large platoon split.

Brooks Lee will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Brooks Lee has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.9-mph to 92.2-mph in the last week.

Cole Young will hold the platoon advantage over Chris Paddack today.

Over the last week, Cole Young’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.1% up to 14.3%.

Extreme flyball hitters like Benjamin Williamson tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Chris Paddack.

Benjamin Williamson has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 88.7-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 85.3-mph.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (7.9) implies that Benjamin Williamson has suffered from bad luck this year with his 3.0 actual HR/600.

Benjamin Williamson’s BABIP skill is projected in the 93rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Target Field as the 9th-best field in the majors for RHB batting average.

Target Field profiles as the #4 field in the league for BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Playing on the road generally lowers pitcher stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Luis Castillo today.

Luis Castillo’s 94.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.1-mph decrease from last season’s 95.5-mph mark.

Luis Castillo’s 2204-rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 14th percentile among all starters.

It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are typically a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Luis Castillo has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 67.1% of the time, placing in the 100th percentile.

Luis Castillo has averaged 94.9 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 92nd percentile.

Considering that flyball batters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Luis Castillo (35% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposition’s projected batting order.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Carlos Correa is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Carlos Correa will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Carlos Correa has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.1-mph to 94.6-mph in the last 7 days.

Despite posting a .298 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Carlos Correa has experienced some negative variance given the .034 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Correa in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

The Seattle Mariners have been the luckiest offense in the majors this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to negatively regress going forward,Given his reverse platoon split, Chris Paddack figures to be at an advantage going up against 6 hitters in the projected batting order who bat from the opposite side in today’s matchup.

Considering that flyball hitters are less effective against flyball pitchers, Chris Paddack (34% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today’s game with 2 FB hitters in the opposing club’s projected batting order.

Home field advantage generally improves pitcher metrics in all categories, and Chris Paddack will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.P. Crawford in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

J.P. Crawford is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

J.P. Crawford will hold the platoon advantage against Chris Paddack today.

Based on Statcast metrics, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 89th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .361.

Posting a .366 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, J.P. Crawford has performed in the 89th percentile.

Ty France’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ty France will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which should boost all of his stats.

Compared to his seasonal average of 10.1°, Ty France has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 24.2° figure over the last week.

Ty France’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 41.6% to 48.8%.

Ty France has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 12.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly deflated relative to his 19.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Harrison Bader will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Randy Arozarena is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Randy Arozarena has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 14.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit lower than his 18.7 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Randy Arozarena’s 95.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs (an advanced standard to evaluate power) is in the 86th percentile this year.

Randy Arozarena has notched a .349 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, ranking in the 77th percentile.

Jorge Polanco is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.

Placing in the 83rd percentile for power, Jorge Polanco has averaged 28.6 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.275) implies that Jorge Polanco has been unlucky this year with his .258 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 77th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Byron Buxton projects as the 11th-best home run batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Byron Buxton is penciled in 1st on the lineup card today.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Byron Buxton will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Byron Buxton has made big gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 15.1% seasonal rate to 25% in the past two weeks.

Byron Buxton has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 94.2-mph in the past two weeks’ worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Byron Buxton in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Ryan Jeffers will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Ryan Jeffers has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 99.1-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal mark of 92.5-mph.

Ryan Jeffers’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 37.5% to 48.5%.

Ryan Jeffers has been unlucky in regards to his wOBA this year; his .330 rate is a fair amount lower than his .356 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his home run ability, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ryan Jeffers has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 89.6-mph average to last year’s 86.9-mph average.

As it relates to his home run ability, Luke Raley ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Batting from the opposite that Chris Paddack throws from, Luke Raley will have the upper hand today.

Luke Raley has strong power (90th percentile) if he makes contact, but that’s never a sure thing (27.8% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Chris Paddack is a pitch-to-contact type (18th percentile K%) — great news for Raley.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Luke Raley has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .332 mark is a fair amount lower than his .386 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his home run talent, Kody Clemens ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Kody Clemens will hold the platoon advantage against Luis Castillo today… and even better, Castillo has a large platoon split.

Kody Clemens is likely to have an edge against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.

Kody Clemens will possess the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as MLB’s 4th-best home run hitter.

Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Cal Raleigh has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92-mph to 94.6-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

Cal Raleigh has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 97.6-mph average to last season’s 94.9-mph EV.

Cal Raleigh’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 17.6% to 21.1%.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Cal Raleigh ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

As it relates to his batting average talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 9th-best batter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.

Julio Rodriguez has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100.1-mph average in the last week to his seasonal figure of 93.7-mph.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Julio Rodriguez ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Julio Rodriguez has been unlucky this year, putting up a .312 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .361 — a .049 gap.

This year, the hardest ball Julio Rodriguez has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 114.7 mph (an advanced standard to evaluate power), grading out in the 91st percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Trevor Larnach ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Trevor Larnach is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today.

Trevor Larnach will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Castillo in today’s game… and even better, Castillo has a large platoon split.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Trevor Larnach can likely count on never losing the platoon advantage against the ‘pen all game.

Trevor Larnach will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Matt Wallner projects as the 10th-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Matt Wallner is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Matt Wallner will have the handedness advantage against Luis Castillo in today’s game… and the cherry on top, Castillo has a large platoon split.

Matt Wallner is apt to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP.

Home field advantage typically improves batter stats across the board, and Matt Wallner will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Wallner in the 90th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Negative Match Player Stats with Mariners vs Twins Series Game 2

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dominic Canzone in the 16th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Dominic Canzone is projected to bat 7th in the batting order today.

When starting against a right-handed starter since the start of last season, Dominic Canzone has been pulled from the game early 32% of the time.

Among all major league parks, Target Field’s centerfield fences are the 10th-deepest.

Dry weather has a small but significant connection with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-driest conditions on the schedule today at 40%.

The league’s 5th-highest fences can be found at Target Field.

Brooks Lee’s BABIP ability is projected in the 22nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Brooks Lee has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.6% seasonal rate has lowered to 0% in the past week’s worth of games.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Brooks Lee ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

In the last week’s worth of games, Brooks Lee’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cole Young in the 14th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Cole Young is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in today’s game.

This year, Cole Young has been replaced by a pinch-hitter in 16% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Cole Young today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Williamson in the 6th percentile when assessing his home run skill.

Benjamin Williamson is penciled in 8th in the batting order in today’s game.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, Benjamin Williamson has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 19% of the time.

Batting from the same side that Chris Paddack throws from, Benjamin Williamson encounters a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Jeremie Rehak profiles as a Pitchers Umpire and is anticipated to be behind the plate in today’s game.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s game, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Luis Castillo will have the handedness advantage over Carlos Correa in today’s game… and it’s an over-sized mismatch considering Castillo’s large platoon split.

In the past week’s worth of games, Carlos Correa’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.8% down to 0%.

Carlos Correa’s launch angle of late (0.8° over the last 7 days) is significantly lower than his 6.6° seasonal mark.

Projected catcher Ryan Jeffers projects as a weak pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Chris Paddack gave up a staggering 9 earned runs in his last start.

Chris Paddack has used his four-seam fastball 5.2% more often this year (48.1%) than he did last year (42.9%).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Chris Paddack in the 25th percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.

Chris Paddack didn’t have his best stuff when it came to striking batters out in his last GS and compiled 2 Ks.

J.P. Crawford will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

J.P. Crawford has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 6.4% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

J.P. Crawford’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 90-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 78-mph over the past 7 days.

Ty France has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

Luis Castillo will have the handedness advantage against Ty France today… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Castillo’s large platoon split.

Ty France’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 93.3-mph average last year has dropped to 91-mph.

Harrison Bader is projected to bat 8th in the batting order today.

Because of Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Harrison Bader will be at a colossal disadvantage hitting from the same side of the dish in this game.

Today, Harrison Bader is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.8% rate (84th percentile).

Harrison Bader’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 92.1-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 85.9-mph in the last two weeks.

Chris Paddack will have the handedness advantage over Randy Arozarena in today’s matchup.

Randy Arozarena will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Randy Arozarena has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph dropping to 87.5-mph over the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 19th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent.

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Jorge Polanco has been pulled from the game early 24% of the time.

Extreme flyball hitters like Jorge Polanco generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Chris Paddack.

Considering Luis Castillo’s large platoon split, Byron Buxton will be at a tremendous disadvantage batting from the same side of the plate in this game.

Typically, batters like Byron Buxton who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Luis Castillo.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Byron Buxton has had some very good luck this year. His .388 rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .343.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Jeffers in the 18th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.

Ryan Jeffers is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 69% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Luis Castillo will have the handedness advantage over Ryan Jeffers in today’s matchup… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Castillo’s large platoon split.

Luke Raley is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

This year, Luke Raley has been pinch hit for in 30% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

Luke Raley hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league’s 10th-deepest CF fences today.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luke Raley today.

Kody Clemens is projected to hit 7th in the batting order in this game.

When starting against a northpaw this year, Kody Clemens has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 24% of the time.

In today’s matchup, Kody Clemens is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 10th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (94th percentile).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kody Clemens in the 7th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

The switch-hitting Cal Raleigh will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Chris Paddack,Typically, hitters like Cal Raleigh who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Chris Paddack.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Cal Raleigh in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Chris Paddack throws from, Julio Rodriguez has a tough challenge today.

Julio Rodriguez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

In the last week’s worth of games, Julio Rodriguez’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.6%.

In the last 7 days, Trevor Larnach’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.5% down to 0%.

Trevor Larnach’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 93.2-mph average last season has decreased to 90.1-mph.

Trevor Larnach’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (5.5°) is significantly lower than his 12° figure last season.

Extreme groundball bats like Matt Wallner tend to be less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Luis Castillo.

Matt Wallner has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 17.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 11.1% over the past week.

Matt Wallner’s average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls of late (8.6° in the past two weeks) is significantly worse than his 18.4° seasonal figure.

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