Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Seattle at Pittsburgh Matchup Today

High humidity has a small yet noteworthy link with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-most humid conditions on the slate at 75%.

Dominic Canzone will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes in today’s game.

Dominic Canzone’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last year to this one, rising from 16.3% to 19.8%.

Dominic Canzone has averaged 27 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 87th percentile for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luke Raley in the 91st percentile as it relates to his home run skill.

Luke Raley is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.

Luke Raley will hold the platoon advantage over Paul Skenes today.

In the last two weeks, Luke Raley’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.1-mph over the course of the season to 102.7-mph in recent games.

Bryan De La Cruz will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Bryan De La Cruz’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (18°) is considerably higher than his 12.3° angle last year.

Bryan De La Cruz’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 16.9% on the season to 33.3% in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Bryan De La Cruz’s true offensive skill to be a .315, suggesting that he has been unlucky this year given the .023 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .292 wOBA.

Rowdy Tellez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.

Built 724 feet above sea level, PNC Park has the 6th-highest altitude among all major league parks, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to more offense.

Rowdy Tellez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Gilbert today.

Rowdy Tellez is apt to have an edge against every reliever throughout the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.

Victor Robles has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (51% of the time), but he is projected to hit 1st in the lineup today.

Victor Robles’s launch angle of late (28.4° in the past 14 days) is significantly better than his 16.1° seasonal angle.

When it comes to his home runs, Victor Robles has been unlucky this year. His 10.9 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been a good deal lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 24.1.

It may be smart to expect stronger performance for the Seattle Mariners offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in the league this year.

Paul Skenes has had some very good luck with his ERA this year; his 2.25 rate is a fair amount lower than his 2.75 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

Seattle Mariners bats jointly grade out 2nd- in the game for power this year when assessing with their 93.5-mph exit velocity on flyballs.

Placing 3rd-highest in the majors this year, Seattle Mariners batters as a group have compiled a 16° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (a reliable stat to study power ability).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan De La Cruz in the 90th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Rowdy Tellez in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run talent.

Josh Rojas will hold the platoon advantage over Paul Skenes in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his home runs, Josh Rojas has suffered from bad luck this year. His 9.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been significantly deflated relative to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 14.2.

Posting a 2.03 K/BB rate this year, Josh Rojas has demonstrated strong plate discipline, ranking in the 76th percentile.

Cal Raleigh is projected to bat 4th in the lineup today.

Cal Raleigh has made big strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 17.3% seasonal rate to 26.3% over the past two weeks.

Cal Raleigh has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last year’s 89.6-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Joey Bart in the 81st percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Joey Bart is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 71% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Joey Bart will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Moore in the 86th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Dylan Moore’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls of late (34° in the past two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 16.9° seasonal angle.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (22.2) provides evidence that Dylan Moore has suffered from bad luck this year with his 15.3 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Andrew McCutchen in the 86th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Andrew McCutchen is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Andrew McCutchen will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Bryan Reynolds’s BABIP talent is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Bryan Reynolds will get to bat from his good side against Logan Gilbert in this game.

Bryan Reynolds will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Rowdy Tellez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the game’s 19th-best home run batter.

Oneil Cruz is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.

Oneil Cruz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Logan Gilbert in today’s game.

The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Oneil Cruz can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.

Ke’Bryan Hayes will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 97.3-mph average in the last week’s worth of games to his seasonal average of 90-mph.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has been unlucky this year, compiling a .261 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .298 — a .037 difference.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Luke Raley ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Cal Raleigh as the league’s 11th-best home run batter.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT)’s appraisal, Logan Gilbert’s overall pitching talent is in the 92nd percentile among all starters in baseball right now.

Logan Gilbert has averaged 91.4 adjusted pitches per start this year, checking in at the 75th percentile.

Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’s expected catcher in today’s matchup, profiles as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa will hold that advantage today.

Isiah Kiner-Falefa has notched a .288 batting average this year, checking in at the 90th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ke’Bryan Hayes in the 79th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Joey Bart has averaged an impressive 97.6-mph exit velocity on his flyballs, an advanced indicator of home run potential.

When assessing his strikeout skill, Paul Skenes projects as the 8th-best starter in baseball right now, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Paul Skenes has averaged 96.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year, placing in the 93rd percentile.

The Seattle Mariners have 4 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Luke Raley, Cal Raleigh, Dylan Moore, Jorge Polanco).

In his last GS, Paul Skenes was firing on all cylinders and posted 8 strikeouts.

By putting up a .334 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Victor Robles has performed in the 82nd percentile for offensive skills.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.

Randy Arozarena has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 94.3-mph average in the last two weeks to his seasonal 90.6-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.

Jorge Polanco is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Over the past 7 days, Jorge Polanco’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.4% up to 28.6%.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.220) suggests that Dylan Moore has been unlucky this year with his .204 actual batting average.

As it relates to plate discipline, Randy Arozarena’s skill is quite good, sporting a 1.98 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 79th percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Bryan Reynolds ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Logan Gilbert in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his strikeout talent.

Logan Gilbert’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2094 rpm) has been a significant increase over than his seasonal rate (1984 rpm).

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Logan Gilbert has gone to his off-speed and breaking balls 9.6% more often this season (67.5%) than he did last season (57.9%).

Jorge Polanco has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 103.1-mph average over the last week to his seasonal EV of 93.3-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Oneil Cruz in the 96th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Isiah Kiner-Falefa in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Friday player match stat slumps with Mariners vs Pirates Matchup

Dominic Canzone is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.

34% of the time that Dominic Canzone has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been pulled from the game early.

The #6 ballpark in the game for suppressing home runs to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.

PNC Park has the 6th-tallest fence height (on average) among all parks.

PNC Park has the 8th-most fair ground in Major League Baseball — generally bad for long-balls.

This year, Luke Raley has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 11% of his appearances when starting against northpaw.

Luke Raley will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Bryan De La Cruz is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 92% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

The #6 stadium in MLB for suppressing home runs to right-handed batters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is PNC Park.

Hitting from the same side that Logan Gilbert throws from, Bryan De La Cruz has a tough challenge in today’s game.

Rowdy Tellez’s BABIP ability is projected in the 4th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Rowdy Tellez has been pinch hit for 25% of the time.

Rowdy Tellez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 16.1% to 11.5%.

Rowdy Tellez’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased in recent games, decreasing from 11.5% on the season to 0% over the past week.

Paul Skenes will have the handedness advantage over Victor Robles in today’s game.

Victor Robles pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 94th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Victor Robles today.

Paul Skenes projects as the 2nd-best starting pitcher in baseball right now, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 7th-worst ballpark in baseball for walks.

The 9th-deepest left field fences in the league are found in PNC Park.

Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher stats in all categories, and Paul Skenes will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Bryan De La Cruz’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 94.4-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 87-mph over the past 14 days.

Bryan De La Cruz has displayed weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 7th percentile with a 5.1 K/BB rate.

Josh Rojas has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (52% of the time), but he is projected to bat 9th in the batting order in this game.

This year, Josh Rojas has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 16% of his appearances when starting against right-handed pitcher.

Cal Raleigh’s BABIP ability is projected in the 9th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Cal Raleigh in today’s matchup.

Ranking in the 13th percentile, Cal Raleigh sits with a .255 BABIP this year.

Batting from the same side that Logan Gilbert throws from, Joey Bart encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

Joey Bart pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.4% — 83rd percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

In the past week, Joey Bart’s 5.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 9.9%.

Dylan Moore is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

Hitting from the same side that Paul Skenes throws from, Dylan Moore will be in a tough position in today’s game.

Dylan Moore pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.4% — 97th percentile) and will be challenged by the league’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Logan Gilbert throws from, Andrew McCutchen will be at a disadvantage in today’s game.

Andrew McCutchen pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.6% — 78th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB’s 9th-deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

In the past week, Bryan Reynolds’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.1% down to 0%.

Over the last 14 days, Bryan Reynolds’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped from his seasonal figure of 94 mph to 88.7 mph.

Oneil Cruz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 18.2% seasonal rate has fallen to 8.7% over the last two weeks.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 10.5°, Oneil Cruz has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-0.3°) over the last two weeks.

As it relates to his home run skill, Ke’Bryan Hayes ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ke’Bryan Hayes has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (62% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th on the lineup card today.

In the past week’s worth of games, Luke Raley’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.9% down to 0%.

By putting up a .229 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Luke Raley is positioned in the 22nd percentile.

It may be smart to expect better results for the Pittsburgh Pirates offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

Playing on the road generally diminishes pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Logan Gilbert today.

Among all SPs, Logan Gilbert’s fastball spin rate of 1984 rpm is in the 1st percentile this year.

Logan Gilbert has been lucky this year, posting a 2.91 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.64 — a 0.73 disparity.

When assessing his home run ability, Isiah Kiner-Falefa ranks in the 5th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Isiah Kiner-Falefa is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card today.

Batting from the same side that Logan Gilbert throws from, Ke’Bryan Hayes will have a disadvantage today.

Joey Bart has been lucky this year, notching a .367 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .303 — a .064 gap.

Joey Bart grades out in the 13th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in home runs (9.9% rate this year).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks PNC Park as the 4th-worst field in Major League Baseball for strikeouts.

Considering the 0.06 deviation between Paul Skenes’s 11.25 K/9 and his 11.19 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in the majors this year as it relates to strikeouts and ought to negatively regress the rest of the season.

In the past week, Victor Robles’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.8% down to 0%.

Victor Robles’s average exit velocity has dropped off of late; his 86.1-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 80.5-mph in the last 14 days.

Hitting from the same side that Paul Skenes throws from, Randy Arozarena has a tough challenge in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Randy Arozarena in today’s game.

In the last 14 days, Randy Arozarena’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.7% down to 0%.

In the past week’s worth of games, Randy Arozarena’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.3%.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jorge Polanco in today’s matchup.

Sporting a .224 batting average this year, Jorge Polanco grades out in the 20th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dylan Moore in the 23rd percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Dylan Moore will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

Josh Rojas will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

Josh Rojas has taken a step back with his Barrel% of late; his 6.1% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Dominic Canzone will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Dominic Canzone’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off this season; his 94.9-mph mark last year has dropped off to 92.7-mph.

Oneil Cruz has displayed poor plate discipline this year, grading out in the 13th percentile with a 4.3 K/BB rate.

Hitting from the same side that Logan Gilbert throws from, Isiah Kiner-Falefa will have a tough challenge today.

There has been a decrease in Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s average exit velocity this season, from 88.8 mph last year to 85.3 mph now, In the last week, Isiah Kiner-Falefa’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal EV of 87.4 mph to 82.5 mph.

Ke’Bryan Hayes has struggled with his Barrel%; his 7.5% rate last year has dropped off to 2.5% this season.

Ke’Bryan Hayes’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 15.6% to 7.7%.