Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Guardians vs Cubs Matchup Today

David Fry is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude among all stadiums. High elevation generally leads to better offense.

Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, David Fry will have an advantage in today’s matchup.

David Fry pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

David Fry has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.4-mph average to last year’s 88.3-mph mark.

The switch-hitting Angel Martinez will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Matthew Boyd.

Angel Martinez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (38% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Angel Martinez’s launch angle this year (17.8°) is a significant increase over his 14.8° angle last year.

Angel Martinez’s launch angle of late (34.2° in the past two weeks’ worth of games) is quite a bit better than his 17.8° seasonal figure.

Tallying 96.6 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Gavin Williams places him the 96th percentile.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in the future,The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Wrigley Field as the 8th-worst field in the majors for walks.

The 5th-deepest RF fences in Major League Baseball are found in Wrigley Field.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) forecasts Gavin Williams in the 77th percentile when assessing his strikeout skill.

Wrigley Field grades out as the #3 stadium in the majors for strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Out of all SPs, Gavin Williams’s fastball velocity of 96 mph is in the 88th percentile this year.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Matt Shaw will hold that advantage today.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Matt Shaw has experienced some negative variance this year. His .278 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .299.

When it comes to his home runs, Matt Shaw has had some very poor luck this year. His 6.0 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 11.1.

In the league, Wrigley Field’s left field fences are the 6th-shallowest.

Carson Kelly will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

In the past two weeks, Carson Kelly’s 58.8% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 44%.

Based on Statcast data, Carson Kelly grades out in the 87th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .355.

Carson Kelly has notched a .363 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) this year, grading out in the 88th percentile.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Carson Kelly ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Nico Hoerner will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Nico Hoerner has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 90.4-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal average of 87.2-mph.

In the past week’s worth of games, Nico Hoerner’s 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15%.

When it comes to plate discipline, Nico Hoerner’s talent is quite impressive, putting up a 1.36 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 92nd percentile.

When assessing his batting average talent, Nico Hoerner is projected as the 17th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.

Ian Happ is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

The switch-hitting Ian Happ will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side (0) today against Gavin Williams.

Ian Happ has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Carlos Santana is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.

The switch-hitting Carlos Santana will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Matthew Boyd.

Carlos Santana pulls many of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

In the last week, Carlos Santana’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 6% up to 16.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.

Jose Ramirez is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.

Jose Ramirez pulls many of his flyballs (41.5% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Jose Ramirez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.5-mph to 92.1-mph in the last 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Ramirez in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Matthew Boyd in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall pitching talent level.

Matthew Boyd has recorded 17.2 outs per outing this year, checking in at the 80th percentile.

The Cleveland Guardians projected lineup grades out as the 3rd-weakest on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability.

As it relates to his strikeout ability, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Matthew Boyd in the 81st percentile among all starters in baseball.

The Cleveland Guardians have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Gabriel Arias, Johnathan Rodriguez, Bo Naylor).

Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher stats across the board, and Matthew Boyd will hold that advantage in today’s game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 7th-best batter in the majors.

Kyle Tucker is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage over Gavin Williams in today’s game.

Extreme groundball batters like Kyle Tucker usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Gavin Williams.

When estimating his home run skill, Lane Thomas ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Lane Thomas is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in today’s game.

Lane Thomas will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in today’s matchup.

Lane Thomas pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 6th-shallowest LF fences today.

Over the past 7 days, Lane Thomas’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.9-mph over the course of the season to 103.3-mph in recent games.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage today.

Dansby Swanson has paced 25.3 home runs per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 77th percentile for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.

Michael Busch will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Gavin Williams in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Michael Busch will hold that advantage today.

Compared to his seasonal average of 16.3°, Michael Busch has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 20.7° mark in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Michael Busch’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 18.1% to 22.7%.

When it comes to his home run skill, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the opposite that Gavin Williams throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an edge in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold that advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 79th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Steven Kwan is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Steven Kwan has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 6th-shallowest LF fences in today’s game.

Steven Kwan’s average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (19.5° in the past 14 days) is significantly better than his 12.2° seasonal figure.

Steven Kwan’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 45.1% to 50.4%.

As it relates to plate discipline, Steven Kwan’s talent is quite good, putting up a 1.02 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 98th percentile.

Steven Kwan’s batting average skill is projected to be in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 18th-best batter in the league.

Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today’s game.

Bats such as Seiya Suzuki with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Gavin Williams who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Seiya Suzuki will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Johnathan Rodriguez will have an edge today.

Bats such as Johnathan Rodriguez with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Matthew Boyd who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Johnathan Rodriguez in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.

Johnathan Rodriguez has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season’s 26.82 ft/sec to 27.31 ft/sec now (according to Statcast’s Sprint Speed metric).

Negative Match Player Stats with Guardians vs Cubs

When starting against a left-handed starter this year, David Fry has been pinch hit for 53% of the time.

Among all major league parks, the 7th-highest fence height (on average) are at Wrigley Field.

The weather forecast expects the 5th-best pitching conditions on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.

David Fry will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.

David Fry has had some very good luck with with his wOBA since the start of last season; his .332 figure is inflated compared to his .302 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Wrigley Field profiles as the #23 stadium in the league for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Chicago Cubs outfield defense projects as the 3rd-best out of all the teams on the slate today.

The #10 stadium in MLB for suppressing batting average to righties, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.

Angel Martinez is projected to hit 7th in the lineup in this game.

Angel Martinez will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Angel Martinez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph dropping to 83-mph over the last 14 days.

The Chicago Cubs projected batting order projects as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability.

Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Gavin Williams (42.7% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged today with 2 FB hitters in Chicago’s projected lineup.

Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Gavin Williams in today’s matchup.

Gavin Williams’s change-up rate has fallen by 5.3% from last season to this one (5.4% to 0.1%) .

With a 1.06 deviation between Gavin Williams’s 3.68 ERA and his 4.74 FIP, it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and figures to perform worse the rest of the season.

Gavin Williams wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out in his previous outing and compiled 2 Ks.

Matt Shaw is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today’s game.

Gavin Williams will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matt Shaw today.

Matt Shaw has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s game.

When it comes to his home run ability, Matt Shaw ranks in the 17th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carson Kelly in the 12th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Carson Kelly is penciled in 9th in the batting order in this game.

Batting from the same side that Gavin Williams throws from, Carson Kelly has a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Carson Kelly’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.6% down to 0%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nico Hoerner in the 4th percentile when estimating his home run skill.

Nico Hoerner is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card today.

Hitting from the same side that Gavin Williams throws from, Nico Hoerner will not have the upper hand today.

Nico Hoerner has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Wrigley Field projects as the #21 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Ian Happ’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has dropped off of late, going from 15.5% on the season to 5.3% in the last week’s worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Carlos Santana in the 0th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Carlos Santana in today’s matchup.

In the past week’s worth of games, Carlos Santana’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.4%.

Based on Statcast data, Carlos Santana ranks in the 24th percentile for hitting ability via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .295.

Typically, bats like Jose Ramirez who hit a lot of flyballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Matthew Boyd.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Ramirez in today’s matchup.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Jose Ramirez’s 6.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.2%.

The Cleveland Guardians have been the 10th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress the rest of the season,The Cleveland Guardians have 7 hitters in the projected batting order that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd today.

Given the 1.3 deviation between Matthew Boyd’s 2.65 ERA and his 3.95 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and should perform worse going forward.

Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and will be challenged by MLB’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

In the past week, Kyle Tucker’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal figure of 93.3 mph to 86.9 mph.

Kyle Tucker’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last year to this one, going from 23.6% to 20.3%.

Lane Thomas will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Using Statcast metrics, Lane Thomas is in the 24th percentile via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average since the start of last season at .224.

Hitting from the same side that Gavin Williams throws from, Dansby Swanson has a tough challenge in today’s game.

In the past week’s worth of games, Dansby Swanson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.7% down to 4.5%.

Dansby Swanson’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined recently; his 94.1-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 86.8-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

Michael Busch has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

Michael Busch’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off in recent games; his 93-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 87.8-mph in the last 7 days.

Pete Crow-Armstrong pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards the game’s 5th-deepest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Pete Crow-Armstrong’s launch angle of late (-0.4° over the last week) is quite a bit lower than his 22.1° seasonal figure.

Despite posting a .352 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Pete Crow-Armstrong has had some very good luck given the .029 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .323.

When estimating his home run ability, Steven Kwan ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Matthew Boyd will hold the platoon advantage against Steven Kwan in today’s game.

Steven Kwan will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

Batting from the same side that Gavin Williams throws from, Seiya Suzuki faces a tough challenge in today’s game.

Johnathan Rodriguez is projected to hit 8th in the lineup in this matchup.

47% of the time that Johnathan Rodriguez has started against a left-handed pitcher this year, he has been pinch hit for.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Johnathan Rodriguez in today’s matchup.

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