Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for San Francisco at Cincinnati Matchup Today

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Matt Chapman ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Matt Chapman is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today.

Great American Ball Park grades out as the #7 field in baseball for right-handed batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this matchup will be the 5th-most favorable for hitting on the slate.

Matt Chapman will hold the platoon advantage over Andrew Abbott in today’s matchup.

When estimating his home run ability, Mike Yastrzemski ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Great American Ball Park grades out as the #1 stadium in MLB for left-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Mike Yastrzemski pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.3% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

The Cincinnati Reds infield defense projects as the weakest among all the teams playing today.

The #7 ballpark in Major League Baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Great American Ball Park.

Mike Yastrzemski has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.1-mph to 93.5-mph in the last week’s worth of games.

Casey Schmitt is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 87% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Great American Ball Park profiles as the #1 venue in the league for RHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The 7th-shallowest left field fences among all stadiums are found in Great American Ball Park.

Casey Schmitt will hold the platoon advantage over Andrew Abbott in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Elly De La Cruz as the 2nd-best batter in Major League Baseball when estimating his BABIP talent.

Elly De La Cruz is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Elly De La Cruz will hold that advantage today.

Throwing 93.3 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Andrew Abbott falls in the 83rd percentile.

Because groundball pitchers hold a notable advantage over groundball hitters, Andrew Abbott and his 41.3% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position in today’s matchup being matched up with 3 opposing GB hitters.

Home field advantage typically boosts pitcher metrics in all categories, and Andrew Abbott will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

The San Francisco Giants as a unit rank 27th- overall in baseball this year as it relates to the maximum exit velocity of all of the baseballs their [HITTER}s have hit.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Spencer Steer in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

Spencer Steer is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.

Batting from the opposite that Kyle Harrison throws from, Spencer Steer will have the upper hand in today’s game.

T.J. Friedl pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

T.J. Friedl will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

In the past week, T.J. Friedl’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 87.5-mph over the course of the season to 89.5-mph recently.

Matt Chapman projects as the 19th-best home run batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Santiago Espinal in the 81st percentile when estimating his batting average talent.

Santiago Espinal will hold the platoon advantage over Kyle Harrison in today’s matchup.

Santiago Espinal has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jonathan India in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Jonathan India is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.

Jonathan India will hold the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison today.

Patrick Bailey is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Patrick Bailey pulls many of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Santiago Espinal will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Derek Hill will have an edge in today’s game.

Derek Hill has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today.

Batters such as Derek Hill with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Andrew Abbott who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

Tyler Stephenson’s BABIP ability is projected in the 84th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Tyler Stephenson is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Batting from the opposite that Kyle Harrison throws from, Tyler Stephenson will have an advantage in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 83rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Jeimer Candelario is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.

Jeimer Candelario pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.8% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Jeimer Candelario will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marco Luciano in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Marco Luciano will have the handedness advantage over Andrew Abbott in today’s matchup.

Marco Luciano has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them in the direction of baseball’s 8th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Fitzgerald in the 87th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Tyler Fitzgerald is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 82% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Tyler Fitzgerald will have an advantage today.

Stuart Fairchild will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Kyle Harrison in today’s game.

Stuart Fairchild pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 8th-shallowest LF fences today.

Stuart Fairchild will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Fitzgerald in the 79th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Patrick Bailey has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.5-mph average to last season’s 88.7-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Derek Hill in the 90th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 94th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

Heliot Ramos is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Heliot Ramos will have an edge in today’s game.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Elly De La Cruz ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

As it relates to his home run skill, Heliot Ramos ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

The San Francisco Giants have 6 hitters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Mike Yastrzemski, Derek Hill, Heliot Ramos, David Villar, Tyler Fitzgerald, Marco Luciano).

Andrew Abbott has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his strikeouts this year, posting a 6.85 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 8.25 — a 1.4 K/9 disparity.

Friday player match stat slumps with Giants vs Reds Matchup

Today, Matt Chapman is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 39.5% rate (97th percentile).

Extreme flyball bats like Matt Chapman generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Abbott.

Matt Chapman will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Matt Chapman has negatively regressed with his Barrel%; his 17.2% rate last season has dropped off to 12.1% this season.

Matt Chapman’s launch angle of late (-1.6° over the last week) is considerably worse than his 15.9° seasonal angle.

Mike Yastrzemski is penciled in 7th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Batting from the same side that Andrew Abbott throws from, Mike Yastrzemski faces a tough challenge in today’s matchup.

Extreme flyball batters like Mike Yastrzemski tend to perform worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Andrew Abbott.

Mike Yastrzemski will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s matchup.

In the past two weeks, Mike Yastrzemski’s 6.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 12.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mike Yastrzemski in the 18th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.

When starting against a southpaw this year, Casey Schmitt has been pinch hit for 32% of the time.

Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Casey Schmitt today.

Casey Schmitt’s speed has fallen off this year. His 28 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 26.88 ft/sec now.

Placing in the 6th percentile, Casey Schmitt has notched a .263 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) since the start of last season.

Casey Schmitt has exhibited weak plate discipline since the start of last season, ranking in the 5th percentile with a 5.37 K/BB rate.

The switch-hitting Elly De La Cruz will bat from his worse side (0) today against Kyle Harrison, Today, Elly De La Cruz is at a disadvantage facing the league’s 11th-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.1% rate (78th percentile).

Elly De La Cruz has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 12.6% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week.

In the past week’s worth of games, Elly De La Cruz’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.5%.

Elly De La Cruz has been lucky this year, posting a .358 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .028 discrepancy.

Great American Ball Park ranks as the #1 ballpark in the game for home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Among all stadiums, Great American Ball Park’s right field dimensions are the 5th-shallowest.

With 8 bats who hit from the other side in the opposing team’s projected batting order, Andrew Abbott will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

Andrew Abbott is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.3% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the misfortune of pitching in the #1 HR venue in MLB in this matchup.

Over the past 7 days, Spencer Steer’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.1% down to 0%.

Spencer Steer’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 88.4-mph seasonal figure has decreased to 86.4-mph in the past week.

Spencer Steer’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off of late, falling from 15.2% on the season to 0% over the past week.

With a .266 BABIP this year, Spencer Steer has performed in the 20th percentile.

T.J. Friedl’s BABIP ability is projected in the 14th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

T.J. Friedl has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (81% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Kyle Harrison will have the handedness advantage against T.J. Friedl today.

As it relates to his home runs, T.J. Friedl has been lucky since the start of last season. His 20.1 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 8.6.

Santiago Espinal is projected to hit 9th in the lineup in this game.

Santiago Espinal’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last year to this one, decreasing from 44.8% to 38.8%.

In the last week, Santiago Espinal’s 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 38.8%.

Santiago Espinal has put up a .271 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, checking in at the 8th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Posting a .275 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Santiago Espinal is positioned in the 15th percentile.

Jonathan India has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph dropping to 84.7-mph over the past two weeks.

From last season to this one, Jonathan India’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 92.4 mph to 88.3 mph.

Patrick Bailey will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

Patrick Bailey has negatively regressed with his Barrel% recently; his 5.3% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% over the last two weeks.

Patrick Bailey’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, decreasing from 15.9% on the season to 0% over the last 14 days.

Despite posting a .323 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Patrick Bailey has had some very good luck given the .030 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .293.

When estimating his home run talent, Santiago Espinal ranks in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Santiago Espinal has been lucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 17.7 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit higher than his 7.6 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Derek Hill ranks in the 24th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Derek Hill is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card in this game.

When starting against a left-handed starter this year, Derek Hill has been pulled from the game early 32% of the time.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Derek Hill today.

Derek Hill has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph dropping to 86.2-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

Tyler Stephenson has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 9.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the past 7 days.

Over the past week, Tyler Stephenson’s 7.1% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.6%.

Tyler Stephenson’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off from last year to this one, decreasing from 48.3% to 40.7%.

Tyler Stephenson has posted a .259 BABIP this year, ranking in the 16th percentile.

When it comes to his home runs, Tyler Stephenson has had positive variance on his side this year. His 20.7 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.6.

In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Tyler Stephenson ranks in just the 18th percentile with a 8.8° launch angle, which is among the lowest angles in the league.

Over the last 14 days, Jeimer Candelario’s 10% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 17.4%.

Jeimer Candelario has shown weak plate discipline this year, placing in the 21st percentile with a 3.89 K/BB rate.

Sporting a .256 BABIP this year, Jeimer Candelario grades out in the 14th percentile.

Marco Luciano is projected to bat 6th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Marco Luciano has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 12% of the time when starting against a left-handed starter since the start of last season.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Marco Luciano today.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.306) implies that Marco Luciano has been lucky since the start of last season with his .343 actual wOBA.

Tyler Fitzgerald has been pinch hit for 13% of the time when starting against a southpaw this year.

Tyler Fitzgerald will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (24.1) may lead us to conclude that Tyler Fitzgerald has had positive variance on his side since the start of last season with his 39.1 actual HR/600.

Stuart Fairchild is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game.

When starting against a lefty hurler this year, Stuart Fairchild has been pulled from the game early 47% of the time.

Using Statcast metrics, Stuart Fairchild is in the 22nd percentile for offensive ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .289.

Stuart Fairchild has notched a .215 Expected Batting Average this year, grading out in the 8th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Stuart Fairchild’s 85.5-mph average exit velocity is one of the worst in Major League Baseball this year: 15th percentile.

Patrick Bailey has performed at a clip of 12.6 Expected Home Runs per 600 plate appearances this year, checking in at the 23rd percentile for power according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Over the last 7 days, Derek Hill’s 11.1% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 47.4%.

As it relates to his home runs, Jeimer Candelario has experienced some positive variance this year. His 25.6 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 21.8.

Despite posting a .405 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Tyler Fitzgerald has had positive variance on his side given the .107 difference between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .298.

Playing on the road generally lowers hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Heliot Ramos in today’s game.

Heliot Ramos has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph dropping to 88.3-mph in the last 14 days.

Heliot Ramos’s launch angle in recent games (4.6° over the last two weeks) is considerably lower than his 8.7° seasonal figure.

Despite posting a .360 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Heliot Ramos has experienced some positive variance given the .042 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .318.

When it comes to power, Jonathan India has performed in the 17th percentile, having averaged 10.1 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year.

T.J. Friedl has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .267 figure is considerably higher than his .229 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

By putting up a .286 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Stuart Fairchild has performed in the 21st percentile.

In the last 7 days, T.J. Friedl’s 15.4% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 20.9%.

Andrew Abbott wasn’t on when it came to striking hitters out in his last GS and compiled 2 Ks.

Andrew Abbott has used his curveball 5.3% less often this year (11.8%) than he did last season (17.1%).

Grading out in the 21st percentile, Andrew Abbott recorded a 9% Swinging Strike% this year.