Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for Chicago at Baltimore Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 89th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.

Ian Happ is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards has the shallowest RF fences in MLB.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report predicts the hottest weather on the schedule today at 93°.

The switch-hitting Ian Happ will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Dean Kremer.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 15th-best batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this game.

Gunnar Henderson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jameson Taillon today.

The Chicago Cubs have been the 2nd-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games, Dean Kremer’s 92.9-mph velocity on his fastball this year is a significant 1.2-mph drop off from last year’s 94.1-mph figure.

Dean Kremer has been one of the luckiest hurlers in MLB on balls in play this year with a .219 BABIP and ought to see that luck normalize going forward.

Chicago’s 92.9-mph exit velocity on flyballs makes them the #6 club in the majors this year by this stat.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability.

Ryan Mountcastle has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Out of all the teams in action today, the 3rd-worst outfield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Ryan Mountcastle will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Tomas Nido hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.3% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards baseball’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Tomas Nido has had some very poor luck this year. His .241 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .322.

Home field advantage typically bolsters pitcher metrics in all categories, and Dean Kremer will hold that advantage in today’s game.

In his last start, Dean Kremer was rolling and posted 8 strikeouts.

Dean Kremer’s higher utilization rate of his secondary pitches this season (53.4% vs. 48.3% last season) ought to work in his favor since they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

Michael Busch has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (51% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards ranks as the #8 venue in baseball for lefty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Batting from the opposite that Dean Kremer throws from, Michael Busch will have an advantage today.

Ryan O’Hearn’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ryan O’Hearn is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Ryan O’Hearn will have an advantage today.

Cedric Mullins II will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jameson Taillon in today’s game.

Cedric Mullins II pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.7% — 90th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Cedric Mullins II will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Ramon Urias has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game’s shallowest RF fences today.

Ramon Urias will hold the home field advantage in today’s game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Ramon Urias has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.1-mph to 94.8-mph in the last 7 days.

Nico Hoerner is penciled in 1st in the lineup in this matchup.

Nico Hoerner has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.1%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game’s shallowest RF fences today.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected Batting Average (.279) implies that Nico Hoerner has suffered from bad luck this year with his .246 actual batting average.

Nico Hoerner has shown strong plate discipline this year, checking in at the 95th percentile with a 1.39 K/BB rate.

Compared to his seasonal average of 23.2°, Cedric Mullins II has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 33.8° angle in the last 14 days.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Oriole Park at Camden Yards as the 8th-best ballpark in the game for righty base hits.

Dansby Swanson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting out towards MLB’s 4th-shallowest CF fences in today’s matchup.

Dansby Swanson has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.2-mph to 94-mph in the past two weeks.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Cody Bellinger ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Cody Bellinger is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in today’s game.

Cody Bellinger will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Dean Kremer in today’s matchup.

Cody Bellinger pulls many of his flyballs (35.4% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Compared to his seasonal average of 10.1°, Dansby Swanson has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 21.6° mark in the last 14 days.

Anthony Santander is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card today.

Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Jordan Westburg is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Jordan Westburg will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Compared to his seasonal average of 12.1°, Ramon Urias has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 24.5° mark over the past two weeks.

Miles Mastrobuoni will have the handedness advantage over Dean Kremer in today’s matchup.

Miles Mastrobuoni hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 95th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting towards the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.303) may lead us to conclude that Miles Mastrobuoni has been unlucky since the start of last season with his .251 actual wOBA.

Miles Mastrobuoni ranks in the 91st percentile when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize base hits (48.9% rate since the start of last season).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 95th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.

Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 84th percentile when estimating his home run talent.

Recording 17.4 outs per GS this year on average, Jameson Taillon checks in at the 83rd percentile.

The Baltimore Orioles have been the 4th-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit worse in future games, The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 96th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.

Seiya Suzuki hits many of his flyballs to center field (42.1% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league’s 4th-shallowest CF fences today.

In the last week’s worth of games, Seiya Suzuki’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.1% up to 23.1%.

When estimating his home run talent, Christopher Morel ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Christopher Morel has made significant improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 11.8% seasonal rate to 28.6% in the last week’s worth of games.

In the past 14 days, Christopher Morel’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.4-mph over the course of the season to 101.5-mph of late.

Christopher Morel has had some very poor luck with his batting average this year; his .199 rate is quite a bit lower than his .232 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Jordan Westburg ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jordan Westburg has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 11.6% seasonal rate to 23.5% in the past week.

Anthony Santander is an extreme flyball batter and faces the weak outfield defense of Chicago (#3-worst on the slate today).

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Christopher Morel ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Nico Hoerner’s batting average ability is projected to be in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.327) suggests that Christopher Morel has suffered from bad luck this year with his .296 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Mountcastle in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.

Ranked in the 86th percentile, Ryan Mountcastle has one of the highest average exit velocities in Major League Baseball this year (91.4-mph).

Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Adley Rutschman will hold that advantage today.

Jameson Taillon was firing on all cylinders in his last start and notched 7 strikeouts.

Jameson Taillon’s high utilization rate of his secondary pitches (59.5% this year) should work in his favor consider they are generally much more effective than fastballs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Anthony Santander in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Anthony Santander will hold that advantage today.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Ryan O’Hearn ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Tuesday player match stat slumps with Cubs vs Orioles Matchup

The #2 field in baseball for suppressing home runs to LHB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

The league’s 9th-tallest fence height (on average) can be found at Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Ian Happ today.

Ian Happ’s average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 90-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 86.1-mph in the last 14 days.

Ian Happ has been lucky this year, posting a .348 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .331 — a .017 gap.

Gunnar Henderson has experienced some positive variance in regards to his home runs this year; his 39.9 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is considerably higher than his 25.5 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Adley Rutschman, the Orioles’s expected catcher today, grades out as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The #1 park in the game for suppressing walks, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oriole Park at Camden Yards.

In the league, Oriole Park at Camden Yards’s LF fences are the deepest.

Out of every team on the slate today, the 2nd-best infield defense is that of the Baltimore Orioles.

Ryan Mountcastle has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (95% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

Oriole Park at Camden Yards projects as the #28 venue in Major League Baseball for righty home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Batting from the same side that Jameson Taillon throws from, Ryan Mountcastle will be in a tough position in today’s game.

Ryan Mountcastle has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.6-mph to 94.4-mph in the past week’s worth of games.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Tomas Nido ranks in the 6th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Tomas Nido is projected to bat 9th in the lineup in today’s game.

36% of the time that Tomas Nido has started against a righty hurler this year, he has been lifted for a pinch-hitter.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dean Kremer to throw 85 pitches in this matchup (6th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

With a 1.11 deviation between Dean Kremer’s 9.33 K/9 and his 8.22 estimated true talent K/9 (via the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the most fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year when it comes to strikeouts and should perform worse in future games.

12% of the time that Michael Busch has started against a right-handed starter this year, he has been pinch hit for.

Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Michael Busch in today’s matchup.

Michael Busch has been lucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .264 mark is a fair amount higher than his .219 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Ryan O’Hearn has been pulled from the game early 20% of the time when starting against a right-handed pitcher this year.

Ryan O’Hearn’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased in recent games; his 94.1-mph seasonal mark has lowered to 91.6-mph over the last 7 days.

Ryan O’Hearn’s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off of late, going from 40.5% on the season to 9.1% in the past week.

Cedric Mullins II’s BABIP talent is projected in the 9th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Cedric Mullins II is penciled in 7th in the lineup in today’s game.

In the last 14 days, Cedric Mullins II’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 5.1% down to 0%.

Ramon Urias is projected to bat 9th on the lineup card in this matchup.

When starting against a righty hurler this year, Ramon Urias has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 15% of the time.

Hitting from the same side that Jameson Taillon throws from, Ramon Urias will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

As it relates to his home run talent, Nico Hoerner ranks in the 3rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Dean Kremer will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nico Hoerner today.

Cedric Mullins II’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 89.2-mph seasonal EV has fallen off to 86.9-mph in the past 7 days.

Dansby Swanson is penciled in 7th in the lineup today.

Dean Kremer will have the handedness advantage against Dansby Swanson in today’s matchup.

Dansby Swanson will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s matchup.

In the past week, Dansby Swanson’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.9% down to 0%.

Cody Bellinger will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Cody Bellinger has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 6.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last two weeks.

In the last 14 days, Ryan Mountcastle’s 25% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 45.3%.

Anthony Santander’s BABIP ability is projected in the 2nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the plate, Anthony Santander will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side against Jameson Taillon in this game.

Anthony Santander’s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, going from 40.9% on the season to 24.2% in the past 14 days.

Ranking in the 4th percentile, Anthony Santander sports a .224 BABIP this year.

Utilizing Statcast metrics, Cedric Mullins II grades out in the 10th percentile for offensive skills via the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .267.

Jameson Taillon will have the handedness advantage over Jordan Westburg today.

When estimating his home run skill, Miles Mastrobuoni ranks in the 14th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Miles Mastrobuoni is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

This year, Miles Mastrobuoni has been lifted for a pinch-hitter in 20% of his appearances when starting against right-handed starter.

The switch-hitting Adley Rutschman will be less advantaged while batting from his bad side (0) today against Jameson Taillon, Adley Rutschman’s average exit velocity has decreased in recent games; his 89.1-mph seasonal figure has fallen to 83.1-mph over the last week.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.0) suggests that Adley Rutschman has been lucky this year with his 25.3 actual HR/600.

Nico Hoerner will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s matchup.

Cody Bellinger has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .266 BA is quite a bit higher than his .238 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

Gunnar Henderson has been lucky this year, posting a .414 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .364 — a .050 deviation.

The Baltimore Orioles projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-best of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill.

Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jameson Taillon in today’s game.

Jameson Taillon’s 91.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1.1-mph decline from last season’s 93-mph figure.

Hitting from the same side that Dean Kremer throws from, Seiya Suzuki has a tough challenge today.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Seiya Suzuki in today’s game.

As it relates to his home runs, Seiya Suzuki has been very fortunate this year. His 25.4 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 22.9.

From last season to this one, Ramon Urias’s ability to hit the ball at a launch angle that optimizes BABIP (-4° to 26°) has decreased substantially, plummeting from 43.5% to 35.1%.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.303) implies that Cody Bellinger has had some very good luck this year with his .317 actual wOBA.

Christopher Morel has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (85% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today.

Dean Kremer will hold the platoon advantage against Christopher Morel today.

Christopher Morel pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the game’s deepest LF fences in today’s matchup.

Batting from the same side that Dean Kremer throws from, Tomas Nido will have a tough matchup in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his batting average, Seiya Suzuki has had some very good luck this year. His .255 figure has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .241.

Gunnar Henderson’s launch angle of late (2.1° in the past week) is considerably lower than his 9.8° seasonal angle.

Playing on the road typically weakens batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Miles Mastrobuoni today.

Miles Mastrobuoni’s 2.8% Barrel% (an advanced metric to measure power) ranks in the 20th percentile since the start of last season.

Christopher Morel will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Michael Busch’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined recently, decreasing from 21.1% on the season to 8.3% over the last week.

In the past 7 days, Nico Hoerner’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 89.5 mph to 81.3 mph.

In the past two weeks, Nico Hoerner’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (1.1°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 4.2°.

Jordan Westburg has shown bad plate discipline this year, grading out in the 15th percentile with a 4.21 K/BB rate.

Jameson Taillon was firing on all cylinders in his last game started and allowed 2 ER.

Jameson Taillon has notched an 8.7% Swinging Strike percentage this year, grading out in the 19th percentile.

Grading out in the 23rd percentile, Jameson Taillon has posted a 19% Strikeout% this year.

In the past two weeks, Anthony Santander’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls (4.8°) has significantly dropped compared to his seasonal mark of 14.1°.

In terms of his home runs, Anthony Santander has had positive variance on his side this year. His 38.5 HR per 600 plate appearances mark has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 30.0.