Todays 08/13/2024 Series Game 2 Matchup Details

Cardinals at Reds Matchup Prediction for Today

As the Cincinnati Reds prepare to face the St. Louis Cardinals on August 13, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tightly contested matchup within the National League Central. The Reds sit at 58-61, while the Cardinals hold a slightly better record at 60-59. Despite their average seasons, both clubs aim to gain momentum in this pivotal series. In their last game, the Cardinals secured a narrow victory, which adds extra pressure on the Reds to respond at home., On the mound, Hunter Greene is projected to start for the Reds. Greene has been solid this season, boasting an impressive 2.90 ERA and a 8-4 record across 23 starts, making him the 52nd best starting pitcher in MLB according to advanced stats. However, his 4.19 xFIP suggests that he may have enjoyed some good fortune this year. Greene’s average projection of 5.5 innings pitched today, with 3.0 earned runs, indicates a potential for a mixed performance., The Cardinals will counter with Erick Fedde, who has also started 23 games and holds a slightly better 3.28 ERA with an 8-5 record. Fedde ranks 69th among MLB starters and projects to pitch a similar 5.3 innings while allowing 3.0 earned runs. Both pitchers are right-handed and have shown the ability to strike out batters, but they also struggle with allowing hits and walks., Offensively, the Reds rank 19th in MLB, underperforming in batting average at 27th but showing power with a 13th rank in home runs. The Cardinals, meanwhile, sit at 17th in overall offense and 14th in batting average, but they struggle to hit home runs, ranking 22nd., With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs and the Reds’ moneyline at -135, betting markets indicate a close contest, favoring the Reds slightly. Given Greene’s undeniable talent and the Reds’ need to bounce back at home, they may have the edge in this matchup.

Tuesday Series Game 2 Prediction Explination for Cardinals vs Reds Matchup

The St. Louis Cardinals outfield defense grades out as the 2nd-worst out of all the teams in action today., St. Louis Cardinals – Moneyline (+115), Hitters such as Tommy Pham with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hunter Greene who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum., Tommy Pham – Over/Under 0.5 Total Bases (-200/+155), The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen projects as the 10th-best in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT)., St. Louis Cardinals – 2H Moneyline, Hunter Greene is an extreme flyball pitcher (41.1% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #1 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup., Cincinnati Reds – 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline, Jake Fraley has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card in this matchup., Jake Fraley – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-180/+140), Jeimer Candelario pulls many of his flyballs (37.7% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 8th-shallowest RF fences today., Jeimer Candelario – Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases (+140/-185), Alec Burleson has hit the Hits Over in 27 of his last 49 games (+8.45 Units / 11% ROI), Alec Burleson – Over/Under 0.5 Hits (-250/+190)

Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs., This mostly has to do with the way the hitter’s swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering., Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game’s runs., This pitcher’s skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance., The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher., This player’s skill set matches up particularly well with the park he’s in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.