Todays Matchup Details

Player match stat positives for St. Louis at Washington Matchup Today

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 96th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Willson Contreras is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the hottest weather on the schedule today at 92°.

The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9-mph in this match-up, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

Josiah Gray will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Willson Contreras today… and it’s an even larger mismatch considering Gray’s large platoon split.

Jacob Young has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

Jacob Young will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Compared to his seasonal average of 2.6°, Jacob Young has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 8.2° angle over the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 85th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Alec Burleson is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.

The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Alec Burleson stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

Sonny Gray projects as the 14th-best starting pitcher in the league currently, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The Washington Nationals projected batting order grades out as the 3rd-weakest on the slate in terms of overall offensive ability.

The 5.6% Barrel% of the Washington Nationals makes them the #30 group of hitters in MLB this year by this standard.

Washington Nationals bats as a unit rank among the worst in baseball this year ( 2nd-worst) as far as their 87.8-mph average exit velocity.

Patrick Corbin will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which should improve all of his metrics in all categories.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luis Garcia in the 93rd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.

Luis Garcia will have the handedness advantage over Sonny Gray today.

Luis Garcia will hold the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Masyn Winn is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.

Josiah Gray will hold the platoon advantage over Masyn Winn today… and it’s an even bigger mismatch considering Gray’s large platoon split.

Masyn Winn has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Keibert Ruiz is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.

Keibert Ruiz pulls many of his flyballs (37.9% — 96th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Keibert Ruiz will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lane Thomas in the 79th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Lane Thomas is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.

Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Lane Thomas will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Ildemaro Vargas pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 77th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 10th-shallowest RF fences today.

Ildemaro Vargas will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

As it relates to his home runs, Ildemaro Vargas has suffered from bad luck this year. His 0.0 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 6.0.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive talent.

Paul Goldschmidt is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.

Josiah Gray will hold the platoon advantage over Paul Goldschmidt in today’s game… and it’s a particular mismatch considering Gray’s large platoon split.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 80th percentile when assessing his batting average ability.

CJ Abrams is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today’s game.

Batting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, CJ Abrams will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.

Brendan Donovan is apt to have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals only has 1 same-handed RP.

Brendan Donovan has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 5.9% seasonal rate to 14.3% over the past two weeks.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Jesse Winker ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jesse Winker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Jesse Winker will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Dylan Carlson will be at a big disadvantage against Josiah Gray and his large platoon split in this game.

Dylan Carlson has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them out towards the game’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

Last season, Dylan Carlson had an average launch angle of 15° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 27°.

Because of Josiah Gray’s large platoon split, Jose Fermin will be at a tremendous disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish today.

Jose Fermin has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA since the start of last season; his .249 figure is a good deal lower than his .315 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

James Wood has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (67% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.

Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, James Wood will have an edge today.

Jose Fermin’s quickness has gotten better this year. His 28.21 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.9 ft/sec now.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Patrick Corbin in the 3rd percentile as it relates to his overall pitching abilities.

Rating 5th-steepest in the majors this year, St. Louis Cardinals bats jointly have put up a 14.2° launch angle (a reliable metric to assess the ability to lift the ball for power).

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this game.

Considering Josiah Gray’s large platoon split, Nolan Arenado will be at a gigantic disadvantage batting from the same side of the dish in today’s game.

Nolan Arenado’s launch angle recently (30.3° in the last week’s worth of games) is significantly higher than his 19° seasonal angle.

Playing on the road typically lowers pitcher metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Sonny Gray in today’s game.

Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and James Wood will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

Sonny Gray projects as the 19th-best pitcher in the majors right now when it comes to his strikeout skill, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Alec Burleson’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.3-mph over the course of the season to 96.3-mph of late.

Luis Garcia’s launch angle this season (7.6°) is quite a bit better than his 4.5° mark last season.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Brendan Donovan ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

In terms of plate discipline, Ildemaro Vargas’s skill is quite good, posting a 1.46 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 93rd percentile.

CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 79th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he’ll be hitting them towards MLB’s 10th-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 90th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill.

Friday player match stat slumps with Cardinals vs Nationals Matchup

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Willson Contreras in today’s game.

In the past two weeks’ worth of games, Willson Contreras’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 11.5% down to 0%.

Willson Contreras’s exit velocity on flyballs has decreased of late; his 95.1-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 82-mph in the last 14 days.

In the past 14 days, Willson Contreras’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 11.5%.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.333) suggests that Willson Contreras has been lucky this year with his .378 actual wOBA.

When assessing his home run skill, Jacob Young ranks in the 1st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Jacob Young is projected to hit 9th on the lineup card today.

Sonny Gray will hold the platoon advantage against Jacob Young in today’s matchup.

Jacob Young’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 86.5-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 83.9-mph in the past two weeks.

Jacob Young has been cold recently, compiling a 0% Barrel% (a reliable metric to study power) in the last two weeks.

Alec Burleson will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Josiah Gray today… and moreover, Gray has a large platoon split.

The Washington Nationals infield defense projects as the 5th-strongest among all the teams on the slate today.

Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Alec Burleson in today’s matchup.

Over the past 7 days, Alec Burleson’s 20% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 46.2%.

Despite posting a .333 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alec Burleson has been very fortunate given the .021 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .312.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Sonny Gray is projected to throw 85 pitches in today’s outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 11th-least of all pitchers on the slate.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Willson Contreras (the Cardinals’s expected catcher today) projects as a weak pitch framer.

With 6 bats who bat from the other side in the opposing team’s projected lineup, Sonny Gray encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

As it relates to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Patrick Corbin in the 12th percentile among all starters in the game.

The St. Louis Cardinals (19.6 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 2nd-least strikeout-heavy batting order of all teams today.

The St. Louis Cardinals have 7 bats in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Patrick Corbin today.

Luis Garcia is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

Luis Garcia has negatively regressed with his Barrel% in recent games; his 7.8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the last week’s worth of games.

In terms of plate discipline, Luis Garcia’s ability is quite bad, posting a 3.92 K/BB rate this year while checking in at in the 18th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 14th percentile when assessing his home run ability.

Masyn Winn will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today’s game.

Masyn Winn has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86.1-mph dropping to 80.4-mph in the last 7 days.

Masyn Winn’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this year; his 89.7-mph average last year has decreased to 85.9-mph.

Despite posting a .322 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Masyn Winn has had some very good luck given the .036 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .286.

Keibert Ruiz’s BABIP ability is projected in the 3rd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

From last season to this one, Keibert Ruiz’s flyball exit velocity has decreased from an average of 89.9 mph to 86.1 mph.

In the last two weeks, Keibert Ruiz’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off from his seasonal average of 86.1 mph to 80.6 mph.

Posting a .256 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Keibert Ruiz is ranked in the 6th percentile for hitting ability.

Checking in at the 4th percentile, Keibert Ruiz sports a .239 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

Batting from the same side that Sonny Gray throws from, Lane Thomas will be at a disadvantage in today’s game.

In the last week’s worth of games, Lane Thomas’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7.7% down to 0%.

As it relates to his home run talent, Ildemaro Vargas ranks in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Ildemaro Vargas is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today.

The switch-hitting Ildemaro Vargas will bat from his weak side (0) today against Sonny Gray, Over the past 14 days, Ildemaro Vargas’s exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal mark of 85.2 mph to 79.6 mph.

Compared to his seasonal figure of 4°, Ildemaro Vargas has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-15.2°) in the past 14 days.

Paul Goldschmidt will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Paul Goldschmidt has shown weak plate discipline this year, grading out in the 25th percentile with a 3.56 K/BB rate.

CJ Abrams has been lucky this year, posting a .364 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .313 — a .051 deviation.

Brendan Donovan has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (72% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card today.

Given Josiah Gray’s large platoon split, Brendan Donovan will have a tremendous advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally lowers batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Brendan Donovan in today’s matchup.

Brendan Donovan’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this season (9.2°) is quite a bit worse than his 12.3° mark last year.

In the last week, Jesse Winker’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.6% down to 0%.

Jesse Winker’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off from last year to this one, falling from 14.7% to 9.6%.

In the last 7 days, Jesse Winker’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 9.6%.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (.315) suggests that Jesse Winker has been lucky this year with his .346 actual wOBA.

Dylan Carlson is projected to hit 7th in the batting order today.

Playing on the road generally weakens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Dylan Carlson in today’s matchup.

Dylan Carlson’s average exit velocity has declined this season; his 89.4-mph figure last year has lowered to 85-mph.

Dylan Carlson’s 4.9% Barrel% (a reliable metric to measure power) is in the 20th percentile since the start of last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Fermin in the 14th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.

Jose Fermin is projected to bat 8th in the lineup in today’s game, which would be a downgrade from his 50% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Jose Fermin today.

St. Louis Cardinals hitters jointly rank 27th- in Major League Baseball for power this year when assessing with their 6.7% Barrel%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Arenado in the 6th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.

Nolan Arenado will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today’s game.

Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has declined this year; his 88.8-mph EV last season has decreased to 85-mph.

Nolan Arenado’s average exit velocity has decreased of late; his 85-mph seasonal mark has dropped to 79.3-mph over the past 14 days.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.5) provides evidence that Alec Burleson has had positive variance on his side this year with his 27.3 actual HR/600.

Dylan Carlson has put up a .279 wOBA (the best measure of overall offense) since the start of last season, checking in at the 12th percentile.

The Washington Nationals (19.7 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 3rd-least strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams on the slate.

Alec Burleson has shown poor plate discipline this year, placing in the 22nd percentile with a 3.66 K/BB rate.

Placing in the 8th percentile, Keibert Ruiz sports a .294 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Fermin in the 18th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ildemaro Vargas in the 7th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jacob Young’s true offensive talent to be a .279, suggesting that he has had positive variance on his side this year given the .017 difference between that mark and his actual .296 wOBA.