Matchup Details

Positive Match Player Stats for Braves vs Giants Matchup Today

The 2nd-best projected batting order on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill is that of the the Atlanta Braves.

The Atlanta Braves have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to hit better in future games,Oracle Park has the shallowest RF fences in Major League Baseball.

The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 13.7-mph in this contest, the best of the day for bats.

Given the 2.26 discrepancy between Hayden Birdsong’s 2.37 ERA and his 4.63 estimated true talent ERA (per the leading projection system, THE BAT), it’s safe to say he’s been one of the luckiest pitchers in MLB this year and should perform worse in future games.

When assessing his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Hayden Birdsong in the 89th percentile among all SPs in baseball.

Built just 8 feet above sea level, Oracle Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the majors, which generally leads to lower offensive output.

Hayden Birdsong will benefit from the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats across the board.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jung Hoo Lee in the 97th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.

Jung Hoo Lee is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

The #3 ballpark in baseball for boosting batting average to left-handed hitters, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jung Hoo Lee ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Jung Hoo Lee will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Spencer Schwellenbach in today’s matchup.

It may be sensible to expect positive regression for the San Francisco Giants offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) sees them as the 9th-unluckiest offense in the game this year.

Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Spencer Schwellenbach (45% GB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 FB hitters in San Francisco’s projected offense.

Spencer Schwellenbach will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

When it comes to his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Spencer Schwellenbach in the 85th percentile among all SPs in the game.

Spencer Schwellenbach has averaged 92.5 adjusted pitches per start this year, checking in at the 79th percentile.

The San Francisco Giants have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Tyler Fitzgerald, Jerar Encarnacion, Heliot Ramos).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 84th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.

Hitting from the opposite that Hayden Birdsong throws from, Alex Verdugo will have the upper hand in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his home runs, Alex Verdugo has had some very poor luck this year. His 0.0 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 8.4.

Daniel Johnson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in today’s game.

Daniel Johnson will hold the platoon advantage against Spencer Schwellenbach today.

Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Daniel Johnson will hold that advantage today.

Dominic Smith will have the handedness advantage against Spencer Schwellenbach in today’s matchup.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Dominic Smith will hold that advantage in today’s matchup.

When it comes to his home runs, Dominic Smith has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His 11.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been considerably lower than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 20.9.

Matt Olson projects as the 15th-best home run hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Matt Olson is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Matt Olson will hold the platoon advantage over Hayden Birdsong in today’s matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Matt Chapman projects as the 10th-best home run batter in the majors, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Matt Chapman is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.

Extreme groundball hitters like Matt Chapman are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach.

Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Matt Chapman will hold that advantage in today’s game.

Oracle Park projects as the #3 park in the league for RHB batting average, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Chapman in the 97th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his home run talent.

Sean Murphy has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (61% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

In the past week’s worth of games, Sean Murphy’s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.7% up to 33.3%.

The Barrel% of Sean Murphy has significantly improved, with an increase from 9.6% last year to 14.7% this season.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Sean Murphy ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 90th percentile as it relates to his home run ability.

Willy Adames is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.

Extreme groundball bats like Willy Adames are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Spencer Schwellenbach.

Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Willy Adames will hold that advantage today.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Willy Adames ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.

Marcell Ozuna is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.

Using Statcast metrics, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 96th percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .379.

Marcell Ozuna’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, rising from 14.1% on the season to 21.4% in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Ozzie Albies pulls many of his flyballs (39% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he’ll be hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences today.

In the past 14 days, Ozzie Albies’s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.3-mph over the course of the season to 90.3-mph in recent games.

Ozzie Albies’s ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, increasing from 14.2% to 17.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 77th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks as the 5th-best hitter in the game.

Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 9.5% rate last year to 20% this year.

Ronald Acuna Jr. has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 99.7-mph average to last year’s 92.2-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Austin Riley as the league’s 17th-best home run batter.

Austin Riley is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.

In the last week’s worth of games, Austin Riley’s 22.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 15.4%.

Austin Riley has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 22.6 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is significantly deflated relative to his 30.0 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s interpretation of Statcast data.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Austin Riley ranks as the 20th-best batter in the majors.

Nick Allen has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s matchup.

Batters such as Nick Allen with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Hayden Birdsong who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

In the last two weeks’ worth of games, Nick Allen’s 18.2% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 14%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.

Heliot Ramos is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.

Heliot Ramos has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.4%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game’s 2nd-shallowest RF fences in today’s game.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Heliot Ramos ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Heliot Ramos will hold that advantage in today’s game.

As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Patrick Bailey will get to bat from his strong side against Spencer Schwellenbach in today’s matchup.

Patrick Bailey will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

Patrick Bailey has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.6-mph average in the past week’s worth of games to his seasonal 88.3-mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.

Hitting from the opposite that Hayden Birdsong throws from, Michael Harris II will have an advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 80th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.

Michael Harris II has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 100.6-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal EV of 90.2-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Fitzgerald in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability.

Tyler Fitzgerald will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today’s game, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Tyler Fitzgerald has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 82.7-mph to 85.1-mph in the last two weeks’ worth of games.

Over the past 14 days, Tyler Fitzgerald’s 23.8% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 16.7%.

Negative Match Player Stats with Braves vs Giants

Projected catcher Patrick Bailey projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Oracle Park as the worst field in Major League Baseball for walks.

Among all parks, the highest average fence height are at Oracle Park.

As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the most favorable pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.

Hayden Birdsong is an extreme flyball pitcher (37.2% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and should be aided by pitching in the #27 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this matchup.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Hayden Birdsong is projected to throw 82 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of all pitchers on the slate.

The #2 stadium in Major League Baseball for suppressing strikeouts, via the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Oracle Park.

Jung Hoo Lee has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.7-mph dropping to 83.9-mph over the last 7 days.

Compared to his seasonal mark of 12°, Jung Hoo Lee has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (8.1°) over the past two weeks.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (8.9) suggests that Jung Hoo Lee has been lucky this year with his 14.0 actual HR/600.

Oracle Park projects as the #28 park in the league for LHB home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Spencer Schwellenbach projects as the 16th-best SP in the majors right now, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Spencer Schwellenbach turned in a great performance in his last start and allowed 0 ER.

Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher’s least effective pitch. Spencer Schwellenbach has gone to his off-speed and breaking pitches 7.3% less often this season (56.8%) than he did last year (64.1%).

Alex Verdugo is penciled in 7th in the batting order today, which would be a downgrade from his 79% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

Playing on the road typically reduces hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Alex Verdugo in today’s game.

Alex Verdugo’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 87.9-mph seasonal EV has lowered to 83.7-mph in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daniel Johnson in the 10th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.

Daniel Johnson’s 0% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) grades out in the 0th percentile since the start of last season.

Daniel Johnson grades out in the 0th percentile when it comes to hitting balls between 23° and 34°, the launch angle range that tends to optimize home runs (0% rate since the start of last season).

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Daniel Johnson ranks in the 12th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dominic Smith in the 19th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.

Dominic Smith has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th on the lineup card in this game.

Since the start of last season, Dominic Smith has been pulled from the game early in 29% of his appearances when starting against righty hurler.

Matt Olson will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s matchup.

Grading out in the 21st percentile, Matt Olson has posted a .261 BABIP this year.

Oracle Park projects as the #28 field in Major League Baseball for right-handed home runs, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

Hitting from the same side that Spencer Schwellenbach throws from, Matt Chapman encounters a tough challenge in today’s game.

Matt Chapman’s average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls of late (3.6° over the past two weeks) is significantly lower than his 6.7° seasonal figure.

Batting from the same side that Hayden Birdsong throws from, Sean Murphy will not have the upper hand today.

Sean Murphy will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today.

In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Sean Murphy has experienced some positive variance this year. His .347 figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)’s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .317.

Hitting from the same side that Spencer Schwellenbach throws from, Willy Adames will not have the upper hand in today’s game.

Willy Adames has struggled with his Barrel% in recent games; his 10.1% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% over the last two weeks.

Over the past 7 days, Willy Adames’s 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 13.5%.

Batting from the same side that Hayden Birdsong throws from, Marcell Ozuna will have a tough challenge in today’s game.

Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Marcell Ozuna today.

Marcell Ozuna has been cold of late, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.7-mph dropping to 82.4-mph in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ozzie Albies in the 14th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.

Ozzie Albies is projected to bat 6th in the lineup in this matchup.

The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will be less advantaged while batting from his worse side (0) today against Hayden Birdsong,Hayden Birdsong will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ronald Acuna Jr. in today’s game.

Ronald Acuna Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today’s game.

Hayden Birdsong will hold the platoon advantage against Austin Riley in today’s matchup.

Austin Riley will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today’s game.

In the past 14 days, Austin Riley’s exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 95.3 mph to 91.6 mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Allen in the 4th percentile when estimating his home run ability.

Nick Allen is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

10% of the time that Nick Allen has started against a northpaw this year, he has been pinch hit for.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Nick Allen ranks in the 7th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Spencer Schwellenbach will hold the platoon advantage against Heliot Ramos in today’s game.

In the past week, Heliot Ramos’s Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 12.7% down to 0%.

Heliot Ramos’s exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 95.5-mph seasonal mark has fallen to 81-mph over the past two weeks.

Patrick Bailey’s batting average talent is projected to be in the 22nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

Patrick Bailey is projected to hit 9th in the lineup today.

Patrick Bailey’s launch angle of late (1° in the past 7 days) is considerably lower than his 19.5° seasonal angle.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Patrick Bailey ranks in the 23rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).

Michael Harris II is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today’s game.

Playing on the road typically lessens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Michael Harris II today.

Michael Harris II’s exit velocity on flyballs has declined this year; his 93.4-mph average last year has dropped to 90.2-mph.

Tyler Fitzgerald is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card in today’s game.

Spencer Schwellenbach will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Fitzgerald in today’s game.

Tyler Fitzgerald’s average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 87.4-mph average last season has fallen to 82.7-mph.

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