New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens
Line: New England -3
Total: 44.5
Where: M&T Bank Stadium
When: Sunday, 11/3, at 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
New England’s odds to complete a perfect regular season could get a whole lot better with a win on Sunday night.
One of the Patriots’ toughest remaining tasks comes in a road trip to Baltimore, where Lamar Jackson and the 5-2 Ravens are waiting to prove themselves on the national stage.
It’s the 8-0 Patriots, however, who are three-point road favorites in the primetime affair. New England has breezed through one of the easiest schedules in the NFL, winning by double digits in seven of eight games.
Baltimore has had a little tougher road, as the Ravens have played at Seattle, Pittsburgh and Kansas City.
Veteran quarterback Tom Brady has continued to defy father time, throwing for 2,251 yards and 13 touchdowns through eight games. Brady has thrown four interceptions and boasts a 95.0 passer rating.
Second-year running back Sony Michel has rushed for 464 yards and six touchdowns on 140 attempts. Rex Burkhead has added 116 yards on 27 carries.
Julian Edelman has been Brady’s favorite target once again, catching 53 passes for 574 yards and four touchdowns. Josh Gordon caught 20 passes for 287 yards, but the Patriots released him on Thursday.
Jackson continues to prove the nay-sayers wrong, as Baltimore’s quarterback has thrown for 1,650 yards and 11 touchdowns. It’s his feet that really make a mark, though, as he leads the NFL with 6.94 yards per carry. Jackson is also 10th in the league with 576 rushing yards, becoming the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for at least 1,600 yards and rush for 500 through the first seven games of a season.
Running back Mark Ingram hasn’t matched his quarterback’s numbers on the ground, but he has added 470 yards on 99 carries, including seven touchdowns. Tight end Mark Andrews leads the Ravens with 36 catches for 449 yards and three touchdowns.
New England’s defense will present a challenge for Jackson, however. The Patriots lead the league in scoring defense (7.6 points per game) and rank second in total defense (234.0 yards per game) and pass defense (148.8 YPG). They also lead the NFL with 27 takeaways, including 19 interceptions.
The Patriots signed veteran kicker Nick Folk this week. Mike Nugent was released after missing three field goals and a PAT over the last four games. Starting kicker Stephen Gostkowski has been on the injured reserve since Oct. 3.
New England is 6-2 against the spread, while Baltimore is just 2-4-1 ATS. The Patriots are 3-1 ATS on the road and the Ravens are 0-3 ATS at home. Baltimore is 5-4-1 ATS in its last 10 games against New England.
The Patriots have been dominant against the AFC North, posting an 8-1 ATS mark in their last nine games against a team from the division.
The Pick: Baltimore +3
Everyone knows the Patriots are good. The question is—how good? With the schedule New England has played, it’s tough to say. Jackson will present a look that the Patriots have not encountered this year. Baltimore is also coming off a bye, which allowed cornerback Jimmy Smith, WR Marquise Brown and linebacker Patrick Onwuasor to return to practice.
It’s tough to bet against Brady, especially because he is 6-1 lifetime against the Ravens, but this looks like the spot to do so.